RESUMO
Many studies have evaluated the effectiveness of genomic selection (GS) using cross-validation within training populations; however, few have looked at its performance for forward prediction within a breeding program. The objectives for this study were to compare the performance of naïve GS (NGS) models without covariates and multi-trait GS (MTGS) models by predicting two years of F4: 7 advanced breeding lines for three Fusarium head blight (FHB) resistance traits, deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation, Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK), and severity (SEV) in soft red winter wheat and comparing predictions with phenotypic performance over two years of selection based on selection accuracy and response to selection. On average, for DON, the NGS model correctly selected 69.2% of elite genotypes, while the MTGS model correctly selected 70.1% of elite genotypes compared with 33.0% based on phenotypic selection from the advanced generation. During the 2018 breeding cycle, GS models had the greatest response to selection for DON, FDK, and SEV compared with phenotypic selection. The MTGS model performed better than NGS during the 2019 breeding cycle for all three traits, whereas NGS outperformed MTGS during the 2018 breeding cycle for all traits except for SEV. Overall, GS models were comparable, if not better than phenotypic selection for FHB resistance traits. This is particularly helpful when adverse environmental conditions prohibit accurate phenotyping. This study also shows that MTGS models can be effective for forward prediction when there are strong correlations between traits of interest and covariates in both training and validation populations.
RESUMO
Stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, is an important disease of wheat in the Great Plains and southeastern United States. Growing resistant cultivars is the preferred means for managing stripe rust, but new virulence in the pathogen population overcomes some of the resistance. The objectives of this study were to characterize the stripe rust resistance in contemporary soft and hard red winter wheat cultivars, to characterize the virulence of P. striiformis f. sp. tritici isolates based on the resistances found in the cultivars, and to determine wheat breeders' perceptions on the importance and methods for achieving stripe rust resistance. Seedlings of cultivars were susceptible to recent isolates, indicating they lacked effective all-stage resistance. However, adult-plants were resistant or susceptible depending on the isolate, indicating they had race-specific adult-plant resistance. Using isolates collected from 1990 to 2013, six major virulence patterns were identified on adult plants of twelve cultivars that were selected as adult-plant differentials. Race-specific adult-plant resistance appears to be the only effective type of resistance protecting wheat from stripe rust in eastern United States. Among wheat breeders, the importance of incorporating stripe rust resistance into cultivars ranged from high to low depending on the frequency of epidemics in their region, and most sources of stripe rust resistance were either unknown or already overcome by virulence in the pathogen population. Breeders with a high priority for stripe rust resistance made most of their selections based on adult-plant reactions in the field, whereas breeders with a low priority for resistance based selections on molecular markers for major all-stage resistance genes.
