Understanding the geography of trauma: Combining spatial analysis and funnel plots to create comprehensive spatial injury profiles.

BACKGROUND: Understanding geographic patterns of injury is essential to operating an effective trauma system and targeting injury prevention. Choropleth maps are helpful in showing spatial relationships but are unable to provide estimates of spread or degrees of confidence. Funnel plots overcome this issue and are a recommended graphical aid for comparisons that allow quantification of precision. The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the complementary roles of choropleth maps and funnel plots in providing a thorough representation of geographic trauma data. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of emergency medical service transport data of adult patients in Alabama from July 2015 to June 2020. Choropleth maps of case volume and observed-to-expected ratios of incidence were created using US Census Bureau data. Funnel plots were created to relate incidence rate to county population. Subgroup analyses included patients with critical physiology, penetrating, blunt, and burn injuries. RESULTS: We identified 65,247 trauma incidents during the study period. The overall statewide incidence rate was 133 per 10,000 persons. The highest number of incidents occurred in the most populous counties (Jefferson, 10,768; Mobile, 5,642). Choropleth maps for overall incidence and subgroups highlighted that spatial distribution of overall case volume and observed-to-expected ratios are not always congruent. Funnel plots identified possible and probable outliers, and revealed skewed or otherwise unique patterns among injury subgroups. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the complementarity of choropleth maps and funnel plots in describing trauma patterns. Comprehensive geospatial analyses may help guide a data-driven approach to trauma system optimization and injury prevention. Combining maps of case counts, incidence, and funnel plots helps to not only identify geographic trends in data but also quantify outliers and display how far results fall outside the expected range. The combination of these tools provides a more comprehensive geospatial analysis than either tool could provide on its own. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level IV.

Impact of Rural Hospital Closures on Health-Care Access.

BACKGROUND: Access to health care is an important issue, particularly in remote areas. Since 2010, 106 rural hospital have closed in the United States, potentially limiting geographic access to health care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of these hospital closures on the proportion of the population who can reach a secondary care facility, by road, within 15, 30, 45, or 60 min. METHODS: Geographical information system analysis, using population data obtained from the 2010 U.S. Census Bureau and hospital data between 2010 and 2019 from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, created 15-, 30-, 45-, and 60-min drive time isochrones (areas from which a central location can be reached within a set time). RESULTS: Rural hospital closures resulted in 0%-0.97% of the population no longer being able to access a hospital within 15 min. The most marked changes were in the East South Central (0.97%, 178,478 residents) and West South Central (0.54%, 197,660 residents) divisions. Lesser degrees of change were noted for longer drive times. The changes were more marked when the rural population was analyzed exclusively. CONCLUSIONS: Recent closures of rural hospitals in the United States have impacted population access to hospital care, although the extent varies. There are regions, such as the Southern and Southeastern United States, which demonstrate greater and potentially more concerning losses in population coverage, probably because of the greater number of closures. Future work should evaluate clinical implications of hospital closures and loss of population coverage.

Using publicly available flight data to analyze health disparities in aeromedical retrieval.

OBJECTIVES: Specialist healthcare cannot be provided in all locations. Helicopters can help to reduce the inherent geographical inequity caused by long distances or difficult terrain. However, the selective use of aeromedical retrieval could lead to other forms of health disparities. The aim of this project was to evaluate such inequities in access to helicopter transport. METHODS: This was a geospatial analysis of publicly available flight tracking data for 18 emergency medical helicopters in the state of Alabama for a 90-day period between March 2019 and June 2019. Data are presented as the number of incidents attended per population, by population (total, insured, and uninsured), as funnel plots, by county. This method allows the identification of positive and negative outliers. RESULTS: We identified 672 likely scene retrieval flights. Twelve counties were probable (outside of 99% confidence interval [CI]) high outliers (more helicopter retrievals than expected), and 4 were possible (outside of 95% CI) high outliers. There were 5 possible low outliers (fewer helicopter retrievals than expected) and 6 probable low outliers. Analysis by insurance status revealed similar results. However, there was no easily discernible geographic pattern to this variability. CONCLUSION: There is considerable geographical variability in the number of helicopter retrievals, with no easily discernable pattern. Some of this variability may be due to differences in injury epidemiology, but others may be due to case selection. However, the present data are insufficient to come to firm conclusions, and additional study is warranted.

Secondary Overtriage of Trauma Patients: Analysis of Clinical and Geographic Patterns.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of a trauma system is to match patients' needs with hospitals' ability to care for them, recognizing that the highest levels of care cannot be provided in all locations. This means that some patients will need to be transferred from a local facility to a higher level of care. Unnecessary transfers are expensive and inconvenient to patients and families. The aim of this study is to analyze the pattern of secondary transfers in a regional trauma system. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis. We included patients aged 16 y and older who were transferred to University of Alabama at Birmingham Hospital between 2014 and 2018. We conducted bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify clinical and organizational predictors of requiring a critical intervention, early discharge, intensive care unit admission, and mortality. Rather than treating each injury as isolated, we analyzed injury patterns. RESULTS: A total of3824 patients met the inclusion criteria. Of them, 664 patients (17.4%) required a critical intervention, 635 (16.6%) were discharged within 24 h, 1356 (35.5%) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 172 (4.0%) patients died. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed many positive associations, with regard to injury pattern, originating center, and insurance status. CONCLUSIONS: There are patterns in the data, and further study is required to understand drivers of secondary overtriage, and how we might be able to address this problem. Reducing the number of unnecessary transfers is a difficult task, which will require engagement at all levels of the trauma system.

Inhibition of the Wnt/ß-catenin pathway enhances antitumor immunity in ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Wnt/ß-catenin pathway is linked to tumorigenesis in a variety of tumors and promotes T cell exclusion and resistance to checkpoint inhibitors. We sought to determine whether a small molecule inhibitor of this pathway, WNT974, would impair tumor growth, affect gene expression patterns, and improve the immune response in human and murine ovarian cancer models. METHODS: Human ovarian cancer cells were treated with WNT974 in vitro. RNAseq libraries were constructed and differences in gene expression patterns between responders and nonresponders were compared to The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Mice with subcutaneous or intraperitoneal ID8 ovarian cancer tumors were treated with WNT974, paclitaxel, combination, or control. Tumor growth and survival were measured. Flow cytometry and ß-TCR repertoire analysis were used to determine the immune response. RESULTS: Gene expression profiling revealed distinct signatures in responders and nonresponders, which strongly correlated with T cell infiltration patterns in the TCGA analysis of ovarian cancer. WNT974 inhibited tumor growth, prevented ascites formation, and prolonged survival in mouse models. WNT974 increased the ratio of CD8+ T cells to T regulatory cells (Tregs) in tumors and enhanced the effector functions of infiltrating CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Treatment also decreased the expression of inhibitory receptors on CD8+ T cells. Combining WNT974 with paclitaxel further reduced tumor growth, prolonged survival, and expanded the T cell repertoire. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that inhibiting the Wnt/ß-catenin pathway may have a potent immunomodulatory effect in the treatment of ovarian cancer, particularly when combined with paclitaxel.