Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of asthma prevalence: a cross-sectional study at the U.S. County level using geographically weighted random forests.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have established associations between the prevalence of new-onset asthma and asthma exacerbation and socioeconomic and environmental determinants. However, research remains limited concerning the shape of these associations, the importance of the risk factors, and how these factors vary geographically. OBJECTIVE: We aimed (1) to examine ecological associations between asthma prevalence and multiple socio-physical determinants in the United States; and (2) to assess geographic variations in their relative importance. METHODS: Our study design is cross sectional based on county-level data for 2020 across the United States. We obtained self-reported asthma prevalence data of adults aged 18 years or older for each county. We applied conventional and geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to investigate the associations between asthma prevalence and socioeconomic (e.g., poverty) and environmental determinants (e.g., air pollution and green space). To enhance the interpretability of the GWRF, we (1) assessed the shape of the associations through partial dependence plots, (2) ranked the determinants according to their global importance scores, and (3) mapped the local variable importance spatially. RESULTS: Of the 3059 counties, the average asthma prevalence was 9.9 (standard deviation ± 0.99). The GWRF outperformed the conventional random forest. We found an indication, for example, that temperature was inversely associated with asthma prevalence, while poverty showed positive associations. The partial dependence plots showed that these associations had a non-linear shape. Ranking the socio-physical environmental factors concerning their global importance showed that smoking prevalence and depression prevalence were most relevant, while green space and limited language were of minor relevance. The local variable importance measures showed striking geographical differences. CONCLUSION: Our findings strengthen the evidence that socio-physical environments play a role in explaining asthma prevalence, but their relevance seems to vary geographically. The results are vital for implementing future asthma prevention programs that should be tailor-made for specific areas.

Data-Driven Prediction of Janus/Core-Shell Morphology in Polymer Particles: A Machine-Learning Approach.

The majority of research on Janus particles prepared by solvent evaporation-induced phase separation technique uses models based on interfacial tension or free energy to predict Janus/core-shell morphology. Data-driven predictions, in contrast, utilize multiple samples to identify patterns and outliers. Using machine-learning algorithms and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) analysis, we developed a model based on a 200-instance data set to predict particle morphology. As model features, simplified molecular input line entry system syntax identifies explanatory variables, including cohesive energy density, molar volume, the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter of polymers, and the solvent solubility parameter. Our most accurate ensemble classifiers predict morphology with an accuracy of 90%. In addition, we employ innovative XAI tools to interpret system behavior, suggesting phase-separated morphology to be most affected by solvent solubility, polymer cohesive energy difference, and blend composition. While polymers with cohesive energy densities above a certain threshold favor the core-shell structure, systems with weak intermolecular interactions favor the Janus structure. The correlation between molar volume and morphology suggests that increasing the size of polymer repeating units favors Janus particles. Additionally, the Janus structure is preferred when the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter exceeds 0.4. XAI analysis introduces feature values that generate the thermodynamically low driving force of phase separation, resulting in kinetically stable morphologies as opposed to thermodynamically stable ones. The Shapley plots of this study also reveal novel methods for creating Janus or core-shell particles based on solvent evaporation-induced phase separation by selecting feature values that strongly favor a given morphology.

A machine learning-driven spatio-temporal vulnerability appraisal based on socio-economic data for COVID-19 impact prevention in the U.S. counties.

A mature and hybrid machine-learning model is verified by mature empirical analysis to measure county-level COVID-19 vulnerability and track the impact of the imposition of pandemic control policies in the U.S. A total of 30 county-level social, economic, and medical variables and a timeline of the imposed policies constitutes a COVID-19 database. A hybrid feature-selection model composed of four machine-learning algorithms is developed to emphasize the regional impact of community features on the case fatality rate (CFR). A COVID-19 vulnerability index (COVULin) is proposed to measure the county's vulnerability, the effects of model's parameters on mortality, and the efficiency of control policies. The results showed that the dense counties in which minority groups represent more than 45% of the population and those with poverty rates greater than 24% were the most vulnerable counties during the first and the last pandemic peaks, respectively. Highly-correlated CFR and COVULin scores indicated a close agreement between the model outcomes and COVID-19 impacts. Counties with higher poverty and uninsured rates were the most resistant to government intervention. It is anticipated that the proposed model can play an essential role in identifying vulnerable communities and help reduce damages during long-term alike disasters.