The impact of national income and vaccine hesitancy on country-level COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

BACKGROUND: The rapid development and rollout of COVID-19 vaccines helped reduce the pandemic's mortality burden. The vaccine rollout, however, has been uneven; it is well known that vaccination rates tend to be lower in lower income countries. Vaccine uptake, however, ultimately depends on the willingness of individuals to get vaccinated. If vaccine confidence is low, then uptake will be low, regardless of country income level. We investigated the impact on country-level COVID-19 vaccination rates of both national income and vaccine hesitancy. METHODS: We estimated a linear regression model of COVID-19 vaccine uptake across 145 countries; this cross-sectional model was estimated at each of four time points: 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after the onset of global vaccine distribution. Vaccine uptake reflects the percentage of the population that had completed their primary vaccination series at the time point. Covariates include per capita GDP, an estimate of the percentage of country residents who strongly disagreed that vaccines are safe, and a variety of control variables. Next, we estimated these models of vaccine uptake by country income (countries below, and above the international median per capita GDP) to examine whether the impact of vaccine hesitancy varies by country income. RESULTS: We find that GDP per capita has a pronounced impact on vaccine uptake at 6 months after global rollout. After controlling for other factors, there was a 22 percentage point difference in vaccination rates between the top 20% and the bottom 20% of countries ranked by per capita GDP; this difference grew to 38% by 12 months. The deleterious impact of distrust of vaccine safety on vaccine uptake became apparent by 12 months and then increased over time. At 24 months, there was a 17% difference in vaccination rates between the top 20% and the bottom 20% of countries ranked by distrust. The income stratified models reveal that the deleterious impact of vaccine distrust on vaccine uptake at 12 and 24 months is particularly evident in lower income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the important role of both national income and vaccine hesitancy in determining COVID-19 vaccine uptake globally. There is a need to increase the supply and distribution of pandemic vaccines to lower-income countries, and to take measures to improve vaccine confidence in these countries.

Overview of the global vaccine ecosystem.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination is an effective, relatively inexpensive, and easy to deliver approach to combating infectious diseases. Widespread vaccination of children has led to the eradication of smallpox and allowed for regional elimination or control of diseases like polio, measles, mumps, tetanus, diphtheria, and whooping cough. But, as we learned from efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, a successful global vaccination program must overcome several hurdles. Failure at any stage can limit vaccine uptake and disease control. AREAS COVERED: In this review, we break down the vaccine journey from research and development to delivery into several steps. We also list all the important international organizations trying to support this ecosystem. Then we identify the role of each of these organizations in supporting each of the necessary steps for a successful vaccination program. EXPERT OPINION: The bottlenecks in vaccination can be different for different countries, based on their income and geography. Policy makers need to identify the weaknesses of this ecosystem in different regions of the world and make sure there is adequate global and local support to fill the gaps in the system.

Modeling Tiered Pricing Frameworks: A Simulation Approach.

OBJECTIVE: Drug plans take different approaches to determining reimbursement prices for generic drugs. One common approach is to set the maximum reimbursement price as a percentage of the price of the interchangeable branded drug. In many countries this percentage depends on the number of generic entrants, a model we call "tiered pricing." This paper seeks to enhance understanding of how to set the tiers. METHODS: We construct a simple model of tiered pricing and set parameters to match evidence on generic drug costs and the distribution of revenues. Using simulation methods, we then assess different tier structures in terms of total surplus and average drug cost. RESULTS: We find when tiers are bunched tightly together welfare outcomes are poor. Moreover, there are large welfare gains from increasing the number of tiers from one to two, and only small welfare gains from increasing the number of tiers beyond four. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of tiers has substantial welfare and cost implications. While it is possible to refine the simulation analysis based on specific market characteristics, an optimal tier structure, such as the one we propose in the paper, should have at least two tiers.

The private versus public contribution to the biomedical literature during the COVID-19, Ebola, H1N1, and Zika public health emergencies.

BACKGROUND: The private versus public contribution to developing new health knowledge and interventions is deeply contentious. Proponents of commercial innovation highlight its role in late-stage clinical trials, regulatory approval, and widespread distribution. Proponents of public innovation point out the role of public institutions in forming the foundational knowledge undergirding downstream innovation. The rapidly evolving COVID-19 situation has brought with it uniquely proactive public involvement to characterize, treat, and prevent this novel health treat. How has this affected the share of research by industry and public institutions, particularly compared to the experience of previous pandemics, Ebola, H1N1 and Zika? METHODS: Using Embase, we categorized all publications for COVID-19, Ebola, H1N1 and Zika as having any author identified as affiliated with industry or not. We placed all disease areas on a common timeline of the number of days since the WHO had declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern with a six-month lookback window. We plotted the number and proportion of publications over time using a smoothing function and plotted a rolling 30-day cumulative sum to illustrate the variability in publication outputs over time. RESULTS: Industry-affiliated articles represented 2% (1,773 articles) of publications over the 14 months observed for COVID-19, 7% (278 articles) over 7.1 years observed for Ebola, 5% (350 articles) over 12.4 years observed for H1N1, and 3% (160 articles) over the 5.7 years observed for Zika. The proportion of industry-affiliated publications built steadily over the time observed, eventually plateauing around 7.5% for Ebola, 5.5% for H1H1, and 3.5% for Zika. In contrast, COVID-19's proportion oscillated from 1.4% to above 2.7% and then declined again to 1.7%. At this point in the pandemic (i.e., 14 months since the PHEIC), the proportion of industry-affiliated articles had been higher for the other three disease areas; for example, the proportion for H1N1 was twice as high. CONCLUSIONS: While the industry-affiliated contribution to the biomedical literature for COVID is extraordinary in its absolute number, its proportional share is unprecedentedly low currently. Nevertheless, the world has witnessed one of the most remarkable mobilizations of the biomedical innovation ecosystem in history.

The economic theory of cost-effectiveness thresholds in health: Domestic and international implications.

Public health insurers often use an implicit or explicit cost-effectiveness threshold to determine which health products and services should be insured. We challenge the convention of a single threshold. For competitively provided products and services, prices are determined by cost; but for products with market power, patentees will increase the price according to the perceived threshold. As a result, a change in the threshold affects the prices of all patented products, including those which would have been developed even at a lower threshold. The insurer can increase efficiency by reducing the threshold for patented products, even accounting for the effect on innovation. We also model a multi-country setting, in which thresholds for patented products will fall below the globally cooperative solution because each country does not recognize the positive externality of its own spending on innovative medicines. We show that this tragedy of the commons problem can be partly corrected through referencing other countries' thresholds, but only when the countries have similar willingness to pay.

Patient income and health innovation.

This study analyzes the relationship between the number of clinical trials in a disease area, the health losses from that disease, and the average income of people suffering from it. Average patient income appears strongly predictive of the number of clinical trials, whether funded by industry or not. We are able to precisely estimate the relationship between income and the number of trials and to identify both (a) the specific diseases that appear to be underfunded relative to their harm to human health and (b) the amount of additional funding required to bring innovation investment up to the present average.