ACO Investment Model Produced Savings, But The Majority Of Participants Exited When Faced With Downside Risk.

Medicare's Accountable Care Organization (ACO) Investment Model (AIM) provided up-front funding to forty-one small, rurally located ACOs to encourage their participation in the Medicare Shared Savings Program. We estimate net savings to Medicare of $381.5 million over three years, driven by utilization reductions in inpatient and other institutional care and by the absence of shared risk for potential increases in Medicare spending incurred by participants. These savings suggest that population-based payment models can enable providers to better meet the needs of rural populations through greater flexibility in care delivery. However, nearly two-thirds of AIM ACOs exited the Medicare Shared Savings Program when faced with the requirement to assume downside financial risk, starting in year four of participation. As the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services builds on AIM and rural hospital global payment models, our findings suggest that new payment models can support more efficient use of resources to meet the health care needs of rural populations. However, the findings also caution against the vigorous pursuit of savings as a primary goal of payment models in traditionally underserved communities.

Payer effects of personalized preventive care for patients with diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the effects of MD-Value in Prevention (MDVIP) enrollment on Medicare expenditures and utilization among fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries with diabetes over a 5-year period. STUDY DESIGN: We obtained participating physician and beneficiary enrollment lists from MDVIP and Medicare FFS claims data through the Virtual Research Data Center to compare changes in outcomes, before and after enrollment dates, with those of nonenrolled beneficiaries receiving primary care in the same local market. METHODS: We employed propensity score matching to identify comparison beneficiaries similar in observed characteristics and preenrollment trends. Individual fixed effects were used to control for time-consistent differences between treatment and comparison populations. RESULTS: We found that enrollment is statistically associated with reductions in outpatient expenditures, Medicare expenditures in year 5, emergency department (ED) utilization, and unplanned inpatient admissions, accompanied by significant increases in evaluation and management visits and expenditures. Total Medicare expenditures over the 5-year period, as well as all inpatient admissions, were not statistically different between the MDVIP and comparison groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding of reduced unplanned inpatient admissions and ED utilization supports the previous findings regarding MDVIP enrollees. We did not find significant changes in overall third-party expenditures, although savings were estimated in year 5, the last year of observation, and may occur later. Our approach, however, strengthens controls for baseline characteristics of the population and uses a comparison population drawn from the same markets who do not experience the loss of their primary care physician at the time of enrollment.

Early Effects of an Accountable Care Organization Model for Underserved Areas.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) developed the Accountable Care Organization (ACO) Investment Model (AIM) to encourage the growth of Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) ACOs in rural and underserved areas. AIM provides financial support to eligible MSSP ACOs by means of prepayment of shared savings. Estimation of the performance of AIM ACOs on measures of spending and utilization in their first performance year would be useful for understanding the viability of ACOs located in these areas. METHODS: We analyzed Medicare claims and enrollment data for a group of fee-for-service beneficiaries who had been attributed to 41 AIM ACOs and for a comparable group of beneficiaries who resided in the ACO markets but were served primarily by non-ACO providers. We used a difference-in-differences study design to compare changes in outcomes from the baseline period (2013 through 2015) to the performance period (2016) among beneficiaries attributed to AIM ACOs with concurrent changes among beneficiaries in the comparison group. The primary outcome of interest was total Medicare Part A and B spending. RESULTS: Provider participation in AIM was associated with a differential reduction in total Medicare spending of $28.21 per beneficiary per month relative to the comparison group, which amounted to an aggregate decrease of $131.0 million. Over the same period, CMS made $76.2 million in prepayments and paid an additional $6.2 million in shared savings to ACOs in which shared savings exceeded the prepayments. After we accounted for this $82.4 million in CMS spending, the aggregate net reduction was $48.6 million, which corresponded to a net reduction of $10.46 per beneficiary per month. Decreases in the number of hospitalizations and use of institutional post-acute care contributed to the observed reduction in overall spending. CONCLUSIONS: With up-front investments, participation in ACO shared savings contracts by providers serving rural and underserved areas was associated with lower Medicare spending than that among non-ACO providers. (Funded by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.).