Modelling the effects of antibiotic usage in livestock on human salmonellosis.

Antibiotic usage in livestock has been suggested as a driver of antimicrobial resistance in human and livestock populations. This has contributed to the implementation of stewardship programs to curtail usage of antibiotics in livestock. However, the consequences of antibiotic curtailment in livestock on human health are poorly understood. There is the potential for increases in the carriage of pathogens such as Salmonella spp. in livestock, and subsequent increases in human foodborne disease. We use a mathematical model fitted to four case studies, ampicillin and tetracycline usage in fattening pig and broiler poultry populations, to explore the impact of curtailing antibiotic usage in livestock on salmonellosis in humans. Increases in the daily incidence of salmonellosis and a decrease in the proportion of resistant salmonellosis were identified following curtailment of antibiotic usage in livestock. The extent of these increases in human foodborne disease ranged from negligible, to controllable through interventions to target the farm-to-fork pathway. This study provides a motivating example of one plausible scenario following curtailment of antibiotic usage in livestock and suggests that a focus on ensuring good farm-to-fork hygiene and livestock biosecurity is sufficient to mitigate the negative human health consequences of antibiotic stewardship in livestock populations.

Taxation of veterinary antibiotics to reduce antimicrobial resistance.

Routine usage of antibiotics for animal health is a key driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food-producing animals. Taxation is a possible approach to incentivise appropriate antibiotic usage in food-producing animals. Taxation can be applied flatly across all antibiotic classes, targeted to single antibiotic classes, or scaled based on resistance in each class, so called "differential" taxation. However, quantifying the potential impact of taxation is challenging, due to the nonlinear and unintuitive response of AMR dynamics to interventions and changes in antibiotic usage caused by alterations in price. We combine epidemiological models with price elasticities of demand for veterinary antibiotics, to compare the potential benefits of taxation schemes with currently implemented bans on antibiotic usage. Taxation strategies had effects comparable to bans on antibiotic usage in food-producing animals to reduce average resistance prevalence and prevent increases in overall infection. Taxation could also maximise the average number of antibiotics with a resistance prevalence of under 25% and potentially generate annual global revenues of ∼1 billion US$ under a 50% taxation to current prices of food-producing animal antibiotics. Differential taxation was also able to maintain a high availability of antibiotics over time compared to single and flat taxation strategies, while also having the lowest rates of intervention failure and highest potential revenue across all taxation strategies. These findings suggest that taxation should be further explored as a tool to combat the ongoing AMR crisis.

Optimizing time-limited non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 outbreak control.

Retrospective analyses of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to combat the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak have highlighted the potential of optimizing interventions. These optimal interventions allow policymakers to manage NPIs to minimize the epidemiological and human health impacts of both COVID-19 and the intervention itself. Here, we use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) mathematical model to explore the feasibility of optimizing the duration, magnitude and trigger point of five different NPI scenarios to minimize the peak prevalence or the attack rate of a simulated UK COVID-19 outbreak. An optimal parameter space to minimize the peak prevalence or the attack rate was identified for each intervention scenario, with each scenario differing with regard to how reductions to transmission were modelled. However, we show that these optimal interventions are fragile, sensitive to epidemiological uncertainty and prone to implementation error. We highlight the use of robust, but suboptimal interventions as an alternative, with these interventions capable of mitigating the peak prevalence or the attack rate over a broader, more achievable parameter space, but being less efficacious than theoretically optimal interventions. This work provides an illustrative example of the concept of intervention optimization across a range of different NPI strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown.

This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the 'shielders'. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored. Our study shows that the most important determinants of outcome are: (i) post-lockdown transmission rates within the general and between the general and vulnerable segments; (ii) fractions of the population in the vulnerable and shielder segments; (iii) adherence to protective measures; and (iv) build-up of population immunity. Additionally, we found that effective measures in the shielder segment, e.g. intensive routine screening, allow further relaxations in the general population. We find that the outcome of any future policy is strongly influenced by the contact matrix between segments and the relationships between physical distancing measures and transmission rates. This strategy has potential applications for any infectious disease for which there are defined proportions of the population who cannot be treated or who are at risk of severe outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Age trends in asymptomatic and symptomatic Leishmania donovani infection in the Indian subcontinent: A review and analysis of data from diagnostic and epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Age patterns in asymptomatic and symptomatic infection with Leishmania donovani, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), are currently poorly understood. Age-stratified serology and infection incidence have been used to assess transmission levels of other diseases, which suggests that they may also be of use for monitoring and targeting control programmes to achieve elimination of VL and should be included in VL transmission dynamic models. We therefore analysed available age-stratified data on both disease incidence and prevalence of immune markers with the aim of collating the currently available data, estimating rates of infection, and informing modelling and future data collection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A systematic literature search yielded 13 infection prevalence and 7 VL incidence studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Statistical tests were performed to identify trends by age, and according to diagnostic cut-off. Simple reversible catalytic models with age-independent and age-dependent infection rates were fitted to the prevalence data to estimate infection and reversion rates, and to test different hypotheses about the origin of variation in these rates. Most of the studies showed an increase in infection prevalence with age: from ≲10% seroprevalence (<20% Leishmanin skin test (LST) positivity) for 0-10-year-olds to >10% seroprevalence (>20% LST-positivity) for 30-40-year-olds, but overall prevalence varied considerably between studies. VL incidence was lower amongst 0-5-year-olds than older age groups in most studies; most showing a peak in incidence between ages 5 and 20. The age-independent catalytic model provided the best overall fit to the infection prevalence data, but the estimated rates for the less parsimonious age-dependent model were much closer to estimates from longitudinal studies, suggesting that infection rates may increase with age. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Age patterns in asymptomatic infection prevalence and VL incidence in the ISC vary considerably with geographical location and time period. The increase in infection prevalence with age and peaked age-VL-incidence distribution may be due to lower exposure to infectious sandfly bites in young children, but also suggest that acquired immunity to the parasite increases with age. However, poor standardisation of serological tests makes it difficult to compare data from different studies and draw firm conclusions about drivers of variation in observed age patterns.

Evolutionary history of human Plasmodium vivax revealed by genome-wide analyses of related ape parasites.

Wild-living African apes are endemically infected with parasites that are closely related to human Plasmodium vivax, a leading cause of malaria outside Africa. This finding suggests that the origin of P. vivax was in Africa, even though the parasite is now rare in humans there. To elucidate the emergence of human P. vivax and its relationship to the ape parasites, we analyzed genome sequence data of P. vivax strains infecting six chimpanzees and one gorilla from Cameroon, Gabon, and Côte d'Ivoire. We found that ape and human parasites share nearly identical core genomes, differing by only 2% of coding sequences. However, compared with the ape parasites, human strains of P. vivax exhibit about 10-fold less diversity and have a relative excess of nonsynonymous nucleotide polymorphisms, with site-frequency spectra suggesting they are subject to greatly relaxed purifying selection. These data suggest that human P. vivax has undergone an extreme bottleneck, followed by rapid population expansion. Investigating potential host-specificity determinants, we found that ape P. vivax parasites encode intact orthologs of three reticulocyte-binding protein genes (rbp2d, rbp2e, and rbp3), which are pseudogenes in all human P. vivax strains. However, binding studies of recombinant RBP2e and RBP3 proteins to human, chimpanzee, and gorilla erythrocytes revealed no evidence of host-specific barriers to red blood cell invasion. These data suggest that, from an ancient stock of P. vivax parasites capable of infecting both humans and apes, a severely bottlenecked lineage emerged out of Africa and underwent rapid population growth as it spread globally.

Bilayer Networks within a Hydrogel Shell: A Robust Chassis for Artificial Cells and a Platform for Membrane Studies.

The ability to make artificial lipid bilayers compatible with a wide range of environments, and with sufficient structural rigidity for manual handling, would open up a wealth of opportunities for their more routine use in real-world applications. Although droplet interface bilayers (DIBs) have been demonstrated in a host of laboratory applications, from chemical logic to biosynthesis reaction vessels, their wider use is hampered by a lack of mechanical stability and the largely manual methods employed in their production. Multiphase microfluidics has enabled us to construct hierarchical triple emulsions with a semipermeable shell, in order to form robust, bilayer-bound, droplet networks capable of communication with their external surroundings. These constructs are stable in air, water, and oil environments and overcome a critical obstacle of achieving structural rigidity without compromising environmental interaction. This paves the way for practical application of artificial membranes or droplet networks in diverse areas such as medical applications, drug testing, biophysical studies and their use as synthetic cells.

Simple and Versatile 3D Printed Microfluidics Using Fused Filament Fabrication.

The uptake of microfluidics by the wider scientific community has been limited by the fabrication barrier created by the skills and equipment required for the production of traditional microfluidic devices. Here we present simple 3D printed microfluidic devices using an inexpensive and readily accessible printer with commercially available printer materials. We demonstrate that previously reported limitations of transparency and fidelity have been overcome, whilst devices capable of operating at pressures in excess of 2000 kPa illustrate that leakage issues have also been resolved. The utility of the 3D printed microfluidic devices is illustrated by encapsulating dental pulp stem cells within alginate droplets; cell viability assays show the vast majority of cells remain live, and device transparency is sufficient for single cell imaging. The accessibility of these devices is further enhanced through fabrication of integrated ports and by the introduction of a Lego®-like modular system facilitating rapid prototyping whilst offering the potential for novices to build microfluidic systems from a database of microfluidic components.

Biotic replacement and mass extinction of the Ediacara biota.

The latest Neoproterozoic extinction of the Ediacara biota has been variously attributed to catastrophic removal by perturbations to global geochemical cycles, 'biotic replacement' by Cambrian-type ecosystem engineers, and a taphonomic artefact. We perform the first critical test of the 'biotic replacement' hypothesis using combined palaeoecological and geochemical data collected from the youngest Ediacaran strata in southern Namibia. We find that, even after accounting for a variety of potential sampling and taphonomic biases, the Ediacaran assemblage preserved at Farm Swartpunt has significantly lower genus richness than older assemblages. Geochemical and sedimentological analyses confirm an oxygenated and non-restricted palaeoenvironment for fossil-bearing sediments, thus suggesting that oxygen stress and/or hypersalinity are unlikely to be responsible for the low diversity of communities preserved at Swartpunt. These combined analyses suggest depauperate communities characterized the latest Ediacaran and provide the first quantitative support for the biotic replacement model for the end of the Ediacara biota. Although more sites (especially those recording different palaeoenvironments) are undoubtedly needed, this study provides the first quantitative palaeoecological evidence to suggest that evolutionary innovation, ecosystem engineering and biological interactions may have ultimately caused the first mass extinction of complex life.

Statistical analysis of iron geochemical data suggests limited late Proterozoic oxygenation.

Sedimentary rocks deposited across the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic transition record extreme climate fluctuations, a potential rise in atmospheric oxygen or re-organization of the seafloor redox landscape, and the initial diversification of animals. It is widely assumed that the inferred redox change facilitated the observed trends in biodiversity. Establishing this palaeoenvironmental context, however, requires that changes in marine redox structure be tracked by means of geochemical proxies and translated into estimates of atmospheric oxygen. Iron-based proxies are among the most effective tools for tracking the redox chemistry of ancient oceans. These proxies are inherently local, but have global implications when analysed collectively and statistically. Here we analyse about 4,700 iron-speciation measurements from shales 2,300 to 360 million years old. Our statistical analyses suggest that subsurface water masses in mid-Proterozoic oceans were predominantly anoxic and ferruginous (depleted in dissolved oxygen and iron-bearing), but with a tendency towards euxinia (sulfide-bearing) that is not observed in the Neoproterozoic era. Analyses further indicate that early animals did not experience appreciable benthic sulfide stress. Finally, unlike proxies based on redox-sensitive trace-metal abundances, iron geochemical data do not show a statistically significant change in oxygen content through the Ediacaran and Cambrian periods, sharply constraining the magnitude of the end-Proterozoic oxygen increase. Indeed, this re-analysis of trace-metal data is consistent with oxygenation continuing well into the Palaeozoic era. Therefore, if changing redox conditions facilitated animal diversification, it did so through a limited rise in oxygen past critical functional and ecological thresholds, as is seen in modern oxygen minimum zone benthic animal communities.

Variant priorization and analysis incorporating problematic regions of the genome.

In case-control studies of rare Mendelian disorders and complex diseases, the power to detect variant and gene-level associations of a given effect size is limited by the size of the study sample. Paradoxically, low statistical power may increase the likelihood that a statistically significant finding is also a false positive. The prioritization of variants based on call quality, putative effects on protein function, the predicted degree of deleteriousness, and allele frequency is often used as a mechanism for reducing the occurrence of false positives, while preserving the set of variants most likely to contain true disease associations. We propose that specificity can be further improved by considering errors that are specific to the regions of the genome being sequenced. These problematic regions (PRs) are identified a-priori and are used to down-weight constitutive variants in a case-control analysis. Using samples drawn from 1000-Genomes, we illustrate the utility of PRs in identifying true variant and gene associations using a case-control study on a known Mendelian disease, cystic fibrosis (CF).

Coanalysis of GWAS with eQTLs reveals disease-tissue associations.

Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), or genetic variants associated with changes in gene expression, have the potential to assist in interpreting results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). eQTLs also have varying degrees of tissue specificity. By correlating the statistical significance of eQTLs mapped in various tissue types to their odds ratios reported in a large GWAS by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we discovered that there is a significant association between diseases studied genetically and their relevant tissues. This suggests that eQTL data sets can be used to determine tissues that play a role in the pathogenesis of a disease, thereby highlighting these tissue types for further post-GWAS functional studies.

Type 2 diabetes risk alleles demonstrate extreme directional differentiation among human populations, compared to other diseases.

Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may contribute to the observed disparity in T2D incidence rates across ethnic populations.

Computational repositioning of the anticonvulsant topiramate for inflammatory bowel disease.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the gastrointestinal tract for which there are few safe and effective therapeutic options for long-term treatment and disease maintenance. Here, we applied a computational approach to discover new drug therapies for IBD in silico, using publicly available molecular data reporting gene expression in IBD samples and 164 small-molecule drug compounds. Among the top compounds predicted to be therapeutic for IBD by our approach were prednisolone, a corticosteroid used to treat IBD, and topiramate, an anticonvulsant drug not previously described to have efficacy for IBD or any related disorders of inflammation or the gastrointestinal tract. Using a trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS)-induced rodent model of IBD, we experimentally validated our topiramate prediction in vivo. Oral administration of topiramate significantly reduced gross pathological signs and microscopic damage in primary affected colon tissue in the TNBS-induced rodent model of IBD. These findings suggest that topiramate might serve as a therapeutic option for IBD in humans and support the use of public molecular data and computational approaches to discover new therapeutic options for disease.

Discovery and preclinical validation of drug indications using compendia of public gene expression data.

The application of established drug compounds to new therapeutic indications, known as drug repositioning, offers several advantages over traditional drug development, including reduced development costs and shorter paths to approval. Recent approaches to drug repositioning use high-throughput experimental approaches to assess a compound's potential therapeutic qualities. Here, we present a systematic computational approach to predict novel therapeutic indications on the basis of comprehensive testing of molecular signatures in drug-disease pairs. We integrated gene expression measurements from 100 diseases and gene expression measurements on 164 drug compounds, yielding predicted therapeutic potentials for these drugs. We recovered many known drug and disease relationships using computationally derived therapeutic potentials and also predict many new indications for these 164 drugs. We experimentally validated a prediction for the antiulcer drug cimetidine as a candidate therapeutic in the treatment of lung adenocarcinoma, and demonstrate its efficacy both in vitro and in vivo using mouse xenograft models. This computational method provides a systematic approach for repositioning established drugs to treat a wide range of human diseases.

FoxO3 regulates neural stem cell homeostasis.

In the nervous system, neural stem cells (NSCs) are necessary for the generation of new neurons and for cognitive function. Here we show that FoxO3, a member of a transcription factor family known to extend lifespan in invertebrates, regulates the NSC pool. We find that adult FoxO3(-/-) mice have fewer NSCs in vivo than wild-type counterparts. NSCs isolated from adult FoxO3(-/-) mice have decreased self-renewal and an impaired ability to generate different neural lineages. Identification of the FoxO3-dependent gene expression profile in NSCs suggests that FoxO3 regulates the NSC pool by inducing a program of genes that preserves quiescence, prevents premature differentiation, and controls oxygen metabolism. The ability of FoxO3 to prevent the premature depletion of NSCs might have important implications for counteracting brain aging in long-lived species.

FitSNPs: highly differentially expressed genes are more likely to have variants associated with disease.

BACKGROUND: Candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were often selected for validation based on their functional annotation, which was inadequate and biased. We propose to use the more than 200,000 microarray studies in the Gene Expression Omnibus to systematically prioritize candidate SNPs from GWASs. RESULTS: We analyzed all human microarray studies from the Gene Expression Omnibus, and calculated the observed frequency of differential expression, which we called differential expression ratio, for every human gene. Analysis conducted in a comprehensive list of curated disease genes revealed a positive association between differential expression ratio values and the likelihood of harboring disease-associated variants. By considering highly differentially expressed genes, we were able to rediscover disease genes with 79% specificity and 37% sensitivity. We successfully distinguished true disease genes from false positives in multiple GWASs for multiple diseases. We then derived a list of functionally interpolating SNPs (fitSNPs) to analyze the top seven loci of Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium type 1 diabetes mellitus GWASs, rediscovered all type 1 diabetes mellitus genes, and predicted a novel gene (KIAA1109) for an unexplained locus 4q27. We suggest that fitSNPs would work equally well for both Mendelian and complex diseases (being more effective for cancer) and proposed candidate genes to sequence for their association with 597 syndromes with unknown molecular basis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that highly differentially expressed genes are more likely to harbor disease-associated DNA variants. FitSNPs can serve as an effective tool to systematically prioritize candidate SNPs from GWASs.

Unsupervised method for automatic construction of a disease dictionary from a large free text collection.

Concept specific lexicons (e.g. diseases, drugs, anatomy) are a critical source of background knowledge for many medical language-processing systems. However, the rapid pace of biomedical research and the lack of constraints on usage ensure that such dictionaries are incomplete. Focusing on disease terminology, we have developed an automated, unsupervised, iterative pattern learning approach for constructing a comprehensive medical dictionary of disease terms from randomized clinical trial (RCT) abstracts, and we compared different ranking methods for automatically extracting con-textual patterns and concept terms. When used to identify disease concepts from 100 randomly chosen, manually annotated clinical abstracts, our disease dictionary shows significant performance improvement (F1 increased by 35-88%) over available, manually created disease terminologies.

Rapidly retargetable approaches to de-identification in medical records.

OBJECTIVE: This paper describes a successful approach to de-identification that was developed to participate in a recent AMIA-sponsored challenge evaluation. METHOD: Our approach focused on rapid adaptation of existing toolkits for named entity recognition using two existing toolkits, Carafe and LingPipe. RESULTS: The "out of the box" Carafe system achieved a very good score (phrase F-measure of 0.9664) with only four hours of work to adapt it to the de-identification task. With further tuning, we were able to reduce the token-level error term by over 36% through task-specific feature engineering and the introduction of a lexicon, achieving a phrase F-measure of 0.9736. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to achieve good performance on the de-identification task by the rapid retargeting of existing toolkits. For the Carafe system, we developed a method for tuning the balance of recall vs. precision, as well as a confidence score that correlated well with the measured F-score.