RESUMO
The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin (TERB) is one of the key transboundary basins among the developing countries in the Middle East which has been significantly damaged by mismanagement, exploitation for energy production and unsustainable water use. This study aimed to evaluate the water and soil resources in the lower parts of this basin. More specifically, how the area of the Shatt al-Arab River (SAR) formed at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers is affected in terms of quality by upstream activities. Four mathematical models of hydrodynamics, advection-dispersion in the river, and convection-dispersion in soil were used in conjunction with assessment of soil salinization by irrigation water. The soil salinization based on direct saltwater infiltration from riverbanks and soil salinization by irrigation with river water were predicted after simulating the intrusion of saline seawater by considering the tidal conditions of the SAR. The results showed that by applying six optimistic and probable scenarios of freshwater inflows for the future, changes in the water and soil quality in downstream riparian countries (Iran and Iraq) reflect this basin's developments and water allocation upstream. Regarding the possible scenario of maximum inflow reduction in the future, the findings of this study can be used to create a comprehensive view of the current condition and development challenges. This emphasizes the need for participatory crisis mitigation strategies between the upstream and downstream countries.
