Can mixing Quercus robur and Quercus petraea with Pinus sylvestris compensate for productivity losses due to climate change?

The climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a representative concentration pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 and 8.5 W m-2 by 2100, respectively, predict an increase in temperature of 1-4.5° Celsius for Europe and a simultaneous shift in precipitation patterns leading to increased drought frequency and severity. The negative consequences of such changes on tree growth on dry sites or at the dry end of a tree species distribution are well-known, but rarely quantified across large gradients. In this study, the growth of Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (Q. spp.) and Pinus sylvestris in pure and mixed stands was predicted for a historical scenario and the two climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the individual tree growth model PrognAus. Predictions were made along an ecological gradient ranging from current mean annual temperatures of 5.5-11.4 °C and with mean annual precipitation sums of 586-929 mm. Initial data for the simulation consisted of 23 triplets established in pure and mixed stands of Q. spp. and P. sylvestris. After doing the simulations until 2100, we fitted a linear mixed model using the predicted volume in the year 2100 as response variable to describe the general trends in the simulation results. Productivity decreased for both Q. spp. and P. sylvestris with increasing temperature, and more so, for the warmer sites of the gradient. P. sylvestris is the more productive tree species in the current climate scenario, but the competitive advantage shifts to Q. spp., which is capable to endure very high negative water potentials, for the more severe climate change scenario. The Q. spp.-P. sylvestris mixture presents an intermediate resilience to increased scenario severity. Enrichment of P. sylvestris stands by creating mixtures with Q. spp., but not the opposite, might be a right silvicultural adaptive strategy, especially at lower latitudes. Tree species mixing can only partly compensate productivity losses due to climate change. This may, however, be possible in combination with other silvicultural adaptation strategies, such as thinning and uneven-aged management.

Tree inventory data from permanent plots in French forest reserves.

We present a data set resulting from the first round of a national monitoring program of forest reserves. It contains 9538 permanent plots, distributed across 111 study sites in mainland France (including Corsica). Notably focusing on dead wood measurement, this protocol has primarily been applied in strict forest reserves and special nature reserves (sensu Bollmann & Braunisch 2013), with 68% (6494) of the plots being currently located in strict forest reserves (unmanaged) and 24.7% (2363 plots) in forests unmanaged for at least 50 years. Sites cover a large variety of ecological conditions, from lowland to subalpine forests, but with an underrepresentation of Mediterranean forests (Table 1). The protocol assesses all the stages of a tree's life cycle, from seedling to decomposed lying dead wood. On each plot, a combination of three sampling techniques was used: (1) fixed-area inventory for regeneration, standing dead trees, living trees, and coarse woody debris (CWD) with diameter over 30 cm; (2) transect lines for CWD with diameter <30 cm; and (3) fixed-angle plot method for living trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) >30 cm (using a relascopic angle of 3%). Measurements include exact tree location (azimuth, distance), species, diameter(s), tree-related microhabitats, decay stage and bark cover, and seedling cover. With ongoing climate change, the program network can also provide important information to monitor changes in forest ecosystems. It can also be used as forest management monitoring or conservation status assessment. These data are freely available for noncommercial scientific use (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 CC BY SA 4.0) with attribution, and this paper must be cited if this material is reused.

Microclimate modulation: An overlooked mechanism influencing the impact of plant diversity on ecosystem functioning.

Changes in climate and biodiversity are widely recognized as primary global change drivers of ecosystem structure and functioning, also affecting ecosystem services provided to human populations. Increasing plant diversity not only enhances ecosystem functioning and stability but also mitigates climate change effects and buffers extreme weather conditions, yet the underlying mechanisms remain largely unclear. Recent studies have shown that plant diversity can mitigate climate change (e.g. reduce temperature fluctuations or drought through microclimatic effects) in different compartments of the focal ecosystem, which as such may contribute to the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem properties and functioning. However, these potential plant diversity-induced microclimate effects are not sufficiently understood. Here, we explored the consequences of climate modulation through microclimate modification by plant diversity for ecosystem functioning as a potential mechanism contributing to the widely documented biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships, using a combination of theoretical and simulation approaches. We focused on a diverse set of response variables at various levels of integration ranging from ecosystem-level carbon exchange to soil enzyme activity, including population dynamics and the activity of specific organisms. Here, we demonstrated that a vegetation layer composed of many plant species has the potential to influence ecosystem functioning and stability through the modification of microclimatic conditions, thus mitigating the negative impacts of climate extremes on ecosystem functioning. Integrating microclimatic processes (e.g. temperature, humidity and light modulation) as a mechanism contributing to the BEF relationships is a promising avenue to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning and to better predict future ecosystem structure, functioning and services. In addition, microclimate management and monitoring should be seen as a potential tool by practitioners to adapt ecosystems to climate change.

Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change.

Plant hydraulics is crucial for assessing the plants' capacity to extract and transport water from the soil up to their aerial organs. Along with their capacity to exchange water between plant compartments and regulate evaporation, hydraulic properties determine plant water relations, water status and susceptibility to pathogen attacks. Consequently, any variation in the hydraulic characteristics of plants is likely to significantly impact various mechanisms and processes related to plant growth, survival and production, as well as the risk of biotic attacks and forest fire behaviour. However, the integration of hydraulic traits into disciplines such as plant pathology, entomology, fire ecology or agriculture can be significantly improved. This review examines how plant hydraulics can provide new insights into our understanding of these processes, including modelling processes of vegetation dynamics, illuminating numerous perspectives for assessing the consequences of climate change on forest and agronomic systems, and addressing unanswered questions across multiple areas of knowledge.

Self-organizing models of human trunk organogenesis recapitulate spinal cord and spine co-morphogenesis.

Integrated in vitro models of human organogenesis are needed to elucidate the multi-systemic events underlying development and disease. Here we report the generation of human trunk-like structures that model the co-morphogenesis, patterning and differentiation of the human spine and spinal cord. We identified differentiation conditions for human pluripotent stem cells favoring the formation of an embryo-like extending antero-posterior (AP) axis. Single-cell and spatial transcriptomics show that somitic and spinal cord differentiation trajectories organize along this axis and can self-assemble into a neural tube surrounded by somites upon extracellular matrix addition. Morphogenesis is coupled with AP patterning mechanisms, which results, at later stages of organogenesis, in in vivo-like arrays of neural subtypes along a neural tube surrounded by spine and muscle progenitors contacted by neuronal projections. This integrated system of trunk development indicates that in vivo-like multi-tissue co-morphogenesis and topographic organization of terminal cell types can be achieved in human organoids, opening windows for the development of more complex models of organogenesis.

Geographical patterns and determinants in plant reproductive phenology duration.

Biodiversity is and always has been an important issue in ecological research. Biodiversity can reflect niche partitioning among species at several spatial and temporal scales and is generally highest in the tropics. One theory to explain it is that low-latitude tropical ecosystems are dominated by species that are generally only distributed over a narrow area. This principle is known as Rapoport's rule. One previously unconsidered extension of Rapoport's rule may be reproductive phenology, where variation in flowering and fruiting length may reflect a temporal range. Herein, we collected reproductive phenology data for more than 20,000 species covering almost all angiosperm species in China. We used a random forest model to quantify the relative role of seven environmental factors on the duration of reproductive phenology. Our results showed that the duration of reproductive phenology decreased with latitude, although there was no obvious change across longitudes. Latitude explained more of the variation in the duration of flowering and fruiting phases in woody plants than in herbaceous plants. Mean annual temperature and the length of the growing season strongly influenced the phenology of herbaceous plants, and average winter temperature and temperature seasonality were important drivers of woody plant phenology. Our result suggests the flowering period of woody plants is sensitive to temperature seasonality, while it does not influence herbaceous plants. By extending Rapoport's rule to consider the distribution of species in time as well as space, we have provided a novel insight into the mechanisms of maintaining high levels of diversity in low-latitude forests.

Annexin A1 is a polarity cue that directs mitotic spindle orientation during mammalian epithelial morphogenesis.

Oriented cell divisions are critical for the formation and maintenance of structured epithelia. Proper mitotic spindle orientation relies on polarised anchoring of force generators to the cell cortex by the evolutionarily conserved protein complex formed by the Gαi subunit of heterotrimeric G proteins, the Leucine-Glycine-Asparagine repeat protein (LGN) and the nuclear mitotic apparatus protein. However, the polarity cues that control cortical patterning of this ternary complex remain largely unknown in mammalian epithelia. Here we identify the membrane-associated protein Annexin A1 (ANXA1) as an interactor of LGN in mammary epithelial cells. Annexin A1 acts independently of Gαi to instruct the accumulation of LGN and nuclear mitotic apparatus protein at the lateral cortex to ensure cortical anchoring of Dynein-Dynactin and astral microtubules and thereby planar alignment of the mitotic spindle. Loss of Annexin A1 randomises mitotic spindle orientation, which in turn disrupts epithelial architecture and luminogenesis in three-dimensional cultures of primary mammary epithelial cells. Our findings establish Annexin A1 as an upstream cortical cue that regulates LGN to direct planar cell divisions during mammalian epithelial morphogenesis.

Aridity and cold temperatures drive divergent adjustments of European beech xylem anatomy, hydraulics and leaf physiological traits.

Understanding plant trait coordination and variance across climatic gradients is critical for assessing forests' adaptive potential to climate change. We measured 11 hydraulic, anatomical and leaf-level physiological traits in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) along a moisture and temperature gradient in the French Alps. We assessed how traits covaried, and how their population-level variances shifted along the gradient. The intrapopulation variances of vessel size and xylem-specific conductivity reduced in colder locations as narrow vessels were observed in response to low temperature. This decreased individual-level water transport capacity compared with the warmer and more xeric sites. Conversely, the maximum stomatal conductance and Huber value variances were constrained in the arid and warm locations, where trees showed restricted gas exchange and higher xylem-specific conductivity. The populations growing under drier and warmer conditions presented wide variance for the xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits. Our results suggest that short-term physiological acclimation to raising aridity and heat in southern beech populations may occur mainly at the leaf level. Furthermore, the wide variance of the xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits at these sites may be advantageous since more heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity could imply populations' greater tree-tree complementarity and resilience against climatic variability. Our study highlights that both intrapopulation trait variance and trait network analysis are key approaches for understanding species adaptation and the acclimation potential to a shifting environment.

Functionally distinct tree species support long-term productivity in extreme environments.

Despite evidence of a positive effect of functional diversity on ecosystem productivity, the importance of functionally distinct species (i.e. species that display an original combination of traits) is poorly understood. To investigate how distinct species affect ecosystem productivity, we used a forest-gap model to simulate realistic temperate forest successions along an environmental gradient and measured ecosystem productivity at the end of the successional trajectories. We performed 10 560 simulations with different sets and numbers of species, bearing either distinct or indistinct functional traits, and compared them to random assemblages, to mimic the consequences of a regional loss of species. Long-term ecosystem productivity dropped when distinct species were lost first from the regional pool of species, under the harshest environmental conditions. On the contrary, productivity was more dependent on ordinary species in milder environments. Our findings show that species functional distinctiveness, integrating multiple trait dimensions, can capture species-specific effects on ecosystem productivity. In a context of an environmentally changing world, they highlight the need to investigate the role of distinct species in sustaining ecosystem processes, particularly in extreme environmental conditions.

Small and slow is safe: On the drought tolerance of tropical tree species.

Understanding how evolutionary history and the coordination between trait trade-off axes shape the drought tolerance of trees is crucial to predict forest dynamics under climate change. Here, we compiled traits related to drought tolerance and the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trade-off axes in 601 tropical woody species to explore their covariations and phylogenetic signals. We found that xylem resistance to embolism (P50) determines the risk of hydraulic failure, while the functional significance of leaf turgor loss point (TLP) relies on its coordination with water use strategies. P50 and TLP exhibit weak phylogenetic signals and substantial variation within genera. TLP is closely associated with the fast-slow trait axis: slow species maintain leaf functioning under higher water stress. P50 is associated with both the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trait axes: slow and small species exhibit more resistant xylem. Lower leaf phosphorus concentration is associated with more resistant xylem, which suggests a (nutrient and drought) stress-tolerance syndrome in the tropics. Overall, our results imply that (1) drought tolerance is under strong selective pressure in tropical forests, and TLP and P50 result from the repeated evolutionary adaptation of closely related taxa, and (2) drought tolerance is coordinated with the ecological strategies governing tropical forest demography. These findings provide a physiological basis to interpret the drought-induced shift toward slow-growing, smaller, denser-wooded trees observed in the tropics, with implications for forest restoration programmes.

Engineering of a fluorescent chemogenetic reporter with tunable color for advanced live-cell imaging.

Biocompatible fluorescent reporters with spectral properties spanning the entire visible spectrum are indispensable tools for imaging the biochemistry of living cells and organisms in real time. Here, we report the engineering of a fluorescent chemogenetic reporter with tunable optical and spectral properties. A collection of fluorogenic chromophores with various electronic properties enables to generate bimolecular fluorescent assemblies that cover the visible spectrum from blue to red using a single protein tag engineered and optimized by directed evolution and rational design. The ability to tune the fluorescence color and properties through simple molecular modulation provides a broad experimental versatility for imaging proteins in live cells, including neurons, and in multicellular organisms, and opens avenues for optimizing Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) biosensors in live cells. The ability to tune the spectral properties and fluorescence performance enables furthermore to match the specifications and requirements of advanced super-resolution imaging techniques.

Regulation of the Expression, Oligomerisation and Signaling of the Inhibitory Receptor CLEC12A by Cysteine Residues in the Stalk Region.

CLEC12A is a myeloid inhibitory receptor that negatively regulates inflammation in mouse models of autoimmune and autoinflammatory arthritis. Reduced CLEC12A expression enhances myeloid cell activation and inflammation in CLEC12A knock-out mice with collagen antibody-induced or gout-like arthritis. Similarly to other C-type lectin receptors, CLEC12A harbours a stalk domain between its ligand binding and transmembrane domains. While it is presumed that the cysteines in the stalk domain have multimerisation properties, their role in CLEC12A expression and/or signaling remain unknown. We thus used site-directed mutagenesis to determine whether the stalk domain cysteines play a role in CLEC12A expression, internalisation, oligomerisation, and/or signaling. Mutation of C118 blocks CLEC12A transport through the secretory pathway diminishing its cell-surface expression. In contrast, mutating C130 does not affect CLEC12A cell-surface expression but increases its oligomerisation, inducing ligand-independent phosphorylation of the receptor. Moreover, we provide evidence that CLEC12A dimerisation is regulated in a redox-dependent manner. We also show that antibody-induced CLEC12A cross-linking induces flotillin oligomerisation in insoluble membrane domains in which CLEC12A signals. Taken together, these data indicate that the stalk cysteines in CLEC12A differentially modulate this inhibitory receptor's expression, oligomerisation and signaling, suggestive of the regulation of CLEC12A in a redox-dependent manner during inflammation.

Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models.

Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches - species distribution models, individual-based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models - as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change.

Fate restrictions in embryonic neural progenitors.

The vertebrate central nervous system (CNS) is a fantastically complex organ composed of dozens of cell types within the neural and glial lineages. Its organization is laid down during development, through the localized and sequential production of subsets of neurons with specific identities. The principles and mechanisms that underlie the timely production of adequate classes of cells are only partially understood. Recent advances in molecular profiling describe the developmental trajectories leading to this amazing cellular diversity and provide us with cell atlases of an unprecedented level of precision. Yet, some long-standing questions pertaining to lineage relationships between neural progenitor cells and their differentiated progeny remain unanswered. Here, we discuss questions related to proliferation potential, timing of fate choices and restriction of neuronal output potential of individual CNS progenitors through the lens of lineage relationship. Unlocking methodological barriers will be essential to accurately describe CNS development at a cellular resolution.

In Vitro Modeling of Bradykinin-Mediated Angioedema States.

Kinins (peptides related to bradykinin, BK) are formed from circulating substrates, the kininogens, by the action of two proteases, the kallikreins. The only clinical application of a BK receptor ligand, the B2 receptor antagonist icatibant, is the treatment of the rare hereditary angioedema (HAE) caused by the deficiency of C1-esterase inhibitor (C1-INH). Less common forms of HAE (genetic variants of factor XII, plasminogen, kininogen) are presumably mediated by increased BK formation. Acquired forms of BK-mediated angioedema, such as that associated with angiotensin-I converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition, are also known. Antibody-based analytical techniques are briefly reviewed, and support that kinins are extremely short-lived, prominently cleared by ACE. Despite evidence of continuous activation of the kallikrein-kinin system in HAE, patients are not symptomatic most of the time and their blood or plasma obtained during remission does not generate excessive immunoreactive BK (iBK), suggesting effective homeostatic mechanisms. HAE-C1-INH and HAE-FXII plasmas are both hyperresponsive to fibrinolysis activation. On another hand, we suggested a role for the alternate tissue kallikrein-kinin system in patients with a plasminogen mutation. The role of the BK B1 receptor is still uncertain in angioedema states. iBK profiles under in vitro stimulation provide fresh insight into the physiopathology of angioedema.

In Vitro Pharmacological Profile of a New Small Molecule Bradykinin B2 Receptor Antagonist.

We here report the discovery and early characterization of Compound 3, a representative of a novel class of small molecule bradykinin (BK) B2 receptor antagonists, and its superior profile to the prior art B2 receptor antagonists Compound 1 and Compound 2. Compound 3, Compound 2, and Compound 1 are highly potent antagonists of the human recombinant B2 receptor (Kb values 0.24, 0.95, and 1.24 nM, respectively, calcium mobilization assay). Compound 3 is more potent than the prior art compounds and icatibant in this assay (Kb icatibant 2.81 nM). The compounds also potently inhibit BK-induced contraction of endogenous B2 receptors in a human isolated umbilical vein bioassay. The potencies of Compound 3, Compound 2, Compound 1, and icatibant are (pA2 values) 9.67, 9.02, 8.58, and 8.06 (i.e. 0.21, 0.95, 2.63, and 8.71 nM), respectively. Compound 3 and Compound 2 were further characterized. They inhibit BK-induced c-Fos signaling and internalization of recombinant human B2 receptors in HEK293 cells, and do not antagonize the venous effects mediated by other G protein-coupled receptors in the umbilical vein model, including the bradykinin B1 receptor. Antagonist potency of Compound 3 at cloned cynomolgus monkey, dog, rat, and mouse B2 receptors revealed species selectivity, with a high antagonist potency for human and monkey B2 receptors, but several hundred-fold lower potency for the other B2 receptors. The in vitro off-target profile of Compound 3 demonstrates a high degree of selectivity over a wide range of molecular targets, including the bradykinin B1 receptor. Compound 3 showed a lower intrinsic clearance in the microsomal stability assay than the prior art compounds. With an efflux ratio of 1.0 in the Caco-2 permeability assay Compound 3 is predicted to be not a substrate of efflux pumps. In conclusion, we discovered a novel chemical class of highly selective and very potent B2 receptor antagonists, as exemplified by Compound 3. The compound showed excellent absorption in the Caco-2 assay, predictive of good oral bioavailability, and favourable metabolic stability in liver microsomes. Compound 3 has provided a significant stepping stone towards the discovery of the orally bioavailable B2 antagonist PHA-022121, currently in phase 1 clinical development.

A Far-Red Emitting Fluorescent Chemogenetic Reporter for In†Vivo Molecular Imaging.

Far-red emitting fluorescent labels are highly desirable for spectral multiplexing and deep tissue imaging. Here, we describe the generation of frFAST (far-red Fluorescence Activating and absorption Shifting Tag), a 14-kDa monomeric protein that forms a bright far-red fluorescent assembly with (4-hydroxy-3-methoxy-phenyl)allylidene rhodanine (HPAR-3OM). As HPAR-3OM is essentially non-fluorescent in solution and in cells, frFAST can be imaged with high contrast in presence of free HPAR-3OM, which allowed the rapid and efficient imaging of frFAST fusions in live cells, zebrafish embryo/larvae, and chicken embryos. Beyond enabling the genetic encoding of far-red fluorescence, frFAST allowed the design of a far-red chemogenetic reporter of protein-protein interactions, demonstrating its great potential for the design of innovative far-red emitting biosensors.

Climate-associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps.

Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could impede the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)-derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north-western and south-eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.

Bradykinin receptors: Agonists, antagonists, expression, signaling, and adaptation to sustained stimulation.

Bradykinin-related peptides, the kinins, are blood-derived peptides that stimulate 2 G protein-coupled receptors, the B1 and B2 receptors (B1R, B2R). The pharmacologic and molecular identities of these 2 receptor subtypes will be succinctly reviewed herein, with emphasis on drug development, receptor expression, signaling, and adaptation to persistent stimulation. Peptide and non-peptide antagonists and fluorescent ligands have been produced for each receptor. The B2R is widely and constitutively expressed in mammalian tissues, whereas the B1R is mostly inducible under the effect of cytokines during infection and immunopathology. The B2R is temporarily desensitized by a cycle of phosphorylation/endocytosis followed by recycling, whereas the nonphosphorylable B1R is relatively resistant to desensitization and translocated to caveolae on activation. Both receptor subtypes, mainly coupled to protein G Gq, phospholipase C and calcium signaling, mediate the vascular aspects of inflammation (vasodilation, edema formation). On this basis, icatibant, a peptide antagonist of the B2R, is approved in the management of hereditary angioedema attacks. This disease is the therapeutic showcase of the kallikrein-kinin system, with an orally bioavailable B2R antagonist under development, as well as other agents that inhibit the kinin forming protease, plasma kallikrein. Other clinical applications are still elusive despite the maturity of the medicinal chemistry efforts applied to kinin receptors.

Correlative climatic niche models predict real and virtual species distributions equally well.

Climate is one of the main factors driving species distributions and global biodiversity patterns. Obtaining accurate predictions of species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change has thus become a key issue in ecology and conservation. Correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) have become a prominent tool to this aim in the last decade and have demonstrated good predictive abilities with current conditions, irrespective of the studied taxon. However, cSDMs rely on statistical association between species' presence and environmental conditions and have rarely been challenged on their actual capacity to reflect causal relationships between species and climate. In this study, we question whether cSDMs can accurately identify if climate and species distributions are causally linked, a prerequisite for accurate prediction of range shift in relation to climate change. We compared the performance of cSDMs in predicting the distributions of 132 European terrestrial species, chosen randomly within five taxonomic groups (three vertebrate groups and two plant groups), and of 1,320 virtual species whose distribution is causally fully independent from climate. We found that (1) for real species, the performance of cSDMs varied principally with range size, rather than with taxonomic groups and (2) cSDMs did not predict the distributions of real species with a greater accuracy than the virtual ones. Our results unambiguously show that the high predictive power of cSDMs can be driven by spatial autocorrelation in climatic and distributional data and does not necessarily reflect causal relationships between climate and species distributions. Thus, high predictive performance of cSDMs does not ensure that they accurately depict the role of climate in shaping species distributions. Our findings therefore call for strong caution when using cSDMs to provide predictions on future range shifts in response to climate change.