Source apportionment of anthropogenic and biogenic organic aerosol over the Tokyo metropolitan area from forward and receptor models.

Organic aerosol (OA) is a dominant component of PM2.5, and accurate knowledge of its sources is critical for identification of cost-effective measures to reduce PM2.5. For accurate source apportionment of OA, we conducted field measurements of organic tracers at three sites (one urban, one suburban, and one forest) in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area and numerical simulations of forward and receptor models. We estimated the source contributions of OA by calculating three receptor models (positive matrix factorization, chemical mass balance, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA)-tracer method) using the ambient concentrations, source profiles, and production yields of OA tracers. Sensitivity simulations of the forward model (chemical transport model) for precursor emissions and SOA formation pathways were conducted. Cross-validation between the receptor and forward models demonstrated that biogenic and anthropogenic SOA were better reproduced by the forward model with updated modules for emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) and for SOA formation from biogenic VOC and intermediate-volatility organic compounds than by the default setup. The source contributions estimated by the forward model generally agreed with those of the receptor models for the major OA sources: mobile sources, biomass combustion, biogenic SOA, and anthropogenic SOA. The contributions of anthropogenic SOA, which are the main focus of this study, were estimated by the forward and receptor models to have been between 9 % and 15 % in summer 2019. The observed percent modern carbon data indicate that the amounts of anthropogenic SOA produced during daytime have substantially declined from 2007 to 2019. This trend is consistent with the decreasing trend of anthropogenic VOC, suggesting that reduction of anthropogenic VOC has been effective in reducing anthropogenic SOA in the atmosphere.

Mechanism of Fenton Oxidation of Levoglucosan in Water.

Levoglucosan (Levo) is a major saccharide formed by the combustion of cellulosic materials. Levo was once considered an inert tracer of biomass-burning aerosols; however, recent studies have indicated that Levo in atmospheric condensed phases does indeed react with atmospheric reactants. Here, we report the results of a time-resolved mass spectrometric study of the oxidation of Levo in aqueous solutions with ferrous ion (Fe2+)/hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) (i.e., Fenton's reagent). The major products of the Fenton oxidation of Levo were oxygen-atom-incorporated species (Levo+nO, n = 1-3). Experiments using Levo-d7 (all C-H bonds replaced by C-D) and D2O or H218O as the solvent revealed that OH predominantly (∼85% of all C-H bonds) abstracts H atoms attached to the carbon atoms possessing a hydroxyl moiety (-OH), which is followed by the formation of a carbonyl moiety (-C═O). Subsequent hydration of these products results in the formation of geminal diols (detected as Levo+1O species). Our results also suggest the formation of α-hydroxy-hydroperoxides (detected as Levo+2O species) that exist in equilibrium, with the compounds possessing a -C═O moiety and with H2O2. H-abstractions from -O-H were found to be a minor reaction pathway (≤5% of all H-abstractions). The present proposed oxidation mechanisms improve our understanding of how the chemical components of atmospheric condensed phases change by metal-catalyzed aging processes without sunlight.

Effects of Metal Ions on Aqueous-Phase Decomposition of α-Hydroxyalkyl-Hydroperoxides Derived from Terpene Alcohols.

We report the results of a mass spectrometric study of the effects of atmospherically relevant metal ions on the decomposition of α-hydroxyalkyl-hydroperoxides (α-HHs) derived from ozonolysis of α-terpineol in aqueous solutions. By direct mass spectrometric detection of chloride adducts of α-HHs, we assessed the temporal profiles of α-HHs and other products in the presence of metal ions. In addition, reactions between α-HHs and FeCl2 in the presence of excess DMSO showed that the amount of hydroxyl radicals formed in a mixture of α-terpineol, O3, and FeCl2 was 5.7 ± 0.8% of the amount formed in a mixture of H2O2 and FeCl2. The first-order rate constants for the decay of α-HHs produced by ozonolysis of α-terpineol in the presence of 5 mM acetate buffer at a pH of 5.1 ± 0.1 were determined to be (4.5 ± 0.1) × 10-4 s-1 (no metal ions), (4.7 ± 0.2) × 10-4 s-1 (with 0.05 mM Fe2+), (4.7 ± 0.1) × 10-4 s-1 (with 0.05 mM Zn2+), and (4.8 ± 0.2) × 10-4 s-1 (with 0.05 mM Cu2+). We propose that in acidic aqueous media, the reaction of α-HHs with Fe2+ is outcompeted by H+-catalyzed decomposition of α-HHs, which produces the corresponding aldehydes and H2O2, which can in turn react with Fe2+ to form hydroxyl radicals.

Reassessment of early 131I inhalation doses by the Fukushima nuclear accident based on atmospheric 137Cs and 131I/137Cs observation data and multi-ensemble of atmospheric transport and deposition models.

The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accidents following the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and subsequent tsunami released radioactive materials into the atmosphere and caused significant public health concerns, particularly thyroid cancers in children. However, the lack of measurement data for atmospheric concentrations of 131I has caused persistent and widespread uncertainty. This study estimated the maximum potential thyroid doses of inhaled 131I in the early post-accident phase between March 12 and 23, 2011 by using the hourly measured data of the 137Cs concentrations at 101 suspended particulate matter (SPM) monitoring sites, a new multi-model ensemble (MME) method of simulating 137Cs concentrations using two Atmospheric Transport and Deposition Models (ATDMs), the 131I/137Cs ratio obtained from measurement data analysis, and the internal exposure model. Based on the measurements, the maximum potential thyroid doses were estimated at 3.1-160 mSv at 5 sites in the Fukushima-Hamadori area for 1-year-old children assumed to remain outdoors, whereas they were less than 4.3 mSv at the other sites in the base case of the 131I/137Cs ratio. The spatial distribution of the maximum potential of early inhalation doses was estimated by using the MME and measurements. The inhalation thyroid doses in the evacuation scenarios were compared to the estimates reported by previous studies. The results of the present study were almost congruent with the outcomes of previous investigations except for thyroid doses contributed by highly contaminated plumes on March 12 and 15. The sensitivity analysis for the 131I/137Cs ratio indicated that these plumes carried the potential to significantly increase the thyroid doses of residents.

Changes in black carbon and PM2.5 in Tokyo in 2003-2017.

Black carbon (BC) particles cause adverse health effects and contribute to the heating of the atmosphere by absorbing visible solar radiation. Efforts have been made to reduce BC emissions, especially in urban areas; however, long-term measurements of BC mass concentration (MBC) are very limited in Japan. We report MBC measurements conducted in Tokyo from 2003 to 2017, showing that MBC decreased by a factor of 3 from 2003 to 2010 and was stable from 2010 to 2017. Fine particulate concentrations (PM2.5) decreased by a much smaller factor during 2003-2010. The diurnal variations of BC size distributions suggest that the BC in Tokyo originates mainly from local sources, even after 2010. Our three-dimensional model calculations show that BC from the Asian continent contributes a small portion (about 20%) of the annual average MBC in the Kanto region of Japan, which includes Tokyo. This indicates that continued reduction of BC emissions inside Japan should be effective in further decreasing MBC.

Source inversion of both long- and short-lived radionuclide releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident using on-site gamma dose rates.

Following a nuclear accident, on-site gamma dose rates provide the most complete record of atmospheric releases of both long- and short-lived radionuclides. However, they are seldom used for source inversion, because the radionuclide composition is unknown. This prevents the estimation of short-lived radionuclide releases. In this study, a method using on-site gamma dose rates is developed with the aim of determining the source term, including both long- and short-lived radionuclides. To reduce the uncertainties involved in source inversion, the proposed method uses reactor physics to obtain an a priori radionuclide composition and a reverse source term estimate as an a priori release rate. A weighted additive model is derived to handle the conflicts between the priors from different mechanisms and simultaneously incorporate them into the source inversion. The proposed method is applied to the Fukushima Daiichi accident and validated against both the on-site gamma dose rates and the regional measurements of Cs-137. The results demonstrate that the resolved a posteriori source term combines the advantages of both priors and substantially improves the predictions of the on-site gamma dose rates. Given a detailed a priori release rate, this approach also improves the regional predictions of both airborne and deposited Cs-137 concentrations.

Contributions of Condensable Particulate Matter to Atmospheric Organic Aerosol over Japan.

Because emission rates of particulate matter (PM) from stationary combustion sources have been measured without dilution or cooling in Japan, condensable PM has not been included in Japanese emission inventories. In this study, we modified an emission inventory to include condensable PM from stationary combustion sources based on the recent emission surveys using a dilution method. As a result, emission rates of organic aerosol (OA) increased by a factor of 7 over Japan. Stationary combustion sources in the industrial and energy sectors became the largest contributors to OA emissions over Japan in the revised estimates (filterable-plus-condensable PM), while road transport and biomass burning were the dominant OA sources in the previous estimate (filterable PM). These results indicate that condensable PM from large combustion sources makes critical contributions to total PM2.5 emissions. Simulated contributions of condensable PM from combustion sources to atmospheric OA drastically increased around urban and industrial areas, including the Kanto region, where OA concentrations increased by factors of 2.5-6.1. Consideration of condensable PM from stationary combustion sources improved model estimates of OA in winter but caused overestimation of OA concentrations in summer. Contributions of primary and secondary OA should be further evaluated by comparing with organic tracer measurements.

Sensitivities of Simulated Source Contributions and Health Impacts of PM2.5 to Aerosol Models.

Chemical transport models are useful tools for evaluating source contributions and health impacts of PM2.5 in the atmosphere. We recently found that concentrations of PM2.5 compounds over Japan were much better reproduced by a volatility basis set model with an enhanced dry deposition velocity of HNO3 and NH3 compared with a two-product yield model. In this study, we evaluated the sensitivities to organic aerosol models of the simulated source contributions to PM2.5 concentrations and of PM2.5-related mortality. Overall, the simulated source contributions to PM2.5 were similar between the two models. However, because of the improvements associated with the volatility basis set model, the contributions of ammonia sources decreased, particularly in winter and spring, and contributions of biogenic and stationary evaporative sources increased in spring and summer. The improved model estimated that emission sources in Japan contributed 35%-48% of the PM2.5-related mortality in Japan. These values were higher than the domestic contributions to average PM2.5 concentrations in Japan (26%-33%) because the domestic contributions were higher in higher population areas. These results indicate that control of both domestic and foreign emissions is necessary to reduce health impacts due to PM2.5 in Japan.

Aerosol Health Effects from Molecular to Global Scales.

Poor air quality is globally the largest environmental health risk. Epidemiological studies have uncovered clear relationships of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter (PM) with adverse health outcomes, including mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Studies of health impacts by aerosols are highly multidisciplinary with a broad range of scales in space and time. We assess recent advances and future challenges regarding aerosol effects on health from molecular to global scales through epidemiological studies, field measurements, health-related properties of PM, and multiphase interactions of oxidants and PM upon respiratory deposition. Global modeling combined with epidemiological exposure-response functions indicates that ambient air pollution causes more than four million premature deaths per year. Epidemiological studies usually refer to PM mass concentrations, but some health effects may relate to specific constituents such as bioaerosols, polycyclic aromatic compounds, and transition metals. Various analytical techniques and cellular and molecular assays are applied to assess the redox activity of PM and the formation of reactive oxygen species. Multiphase chemical interactions of lung antioxidants with atmospheric pollutants are crucial to the mechanistic and molecular understanding of oxidative stress upon respiratory deposition. The role of distinct PM components in health impacts and mortality needs to be clarified by integrated research on various spatiotemporal scales for better evaluation and mitigation of aerosol effects on public health in the Anthropocene.

Varying sensitivity of mountainous streamwater base-flow [Formula: see text]concentrations to N deposition in the northern suburbs of Tokyo.

Ecosystems of suburban landscapes (i.e., forest, inland water ecosystem) are threatened by high nitrogen (N) loadings derived from urban air pollutants. Forest ecosystems under high chronic N loadings tend to leach more N via streams. In the northern suburbs of Tokyo, N deposition loading on terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past 30 years. In this region, we investigated nitrate concentrations in 608 independent small forested catchment water samples from northeastern suburbs of Tokyo. The nitrate concentrations varied from 0.07 to 3.31 mg-N L-1 in this region. We evaluated the effects of N deposition and catchment properties (e.g., meteorological and topographic factors, vegetation and soil types) on nitrate concentrations. In the random forest model, simulated N deposition rates from an atmospheric chemistry transportation model explained most of the variance of nitrate concentration. To evaluate the effects of afforestation management in the catchment, we followed a model-based recursive partitioning method (MOB). MOB succeeded in data-driven identification of subgroups with varying sensitivities to N deposition rate by vegetation composition in the catchment. According to MOB, the catchment with dominant coniferous coverage that mostly consisted of plantation with old tree age tended to have strong sensitivity of nitrate concentrations to N deposition loading.

Investigating the evolution of summertime secondary atmospheric pollutants in urban Beijing.

Understanding the formation of tropospheric ozone (O3) and secondary particulates is essential for controlling secondary pollution in megacities. Intensive observations were conducted to investigate the evolution of O3, nitrate (NO3-), sulfate (SO42-) and oxygenated organic aerosols ((OOAs), a proxy for secondary organic aerosols) and the interactions between O3, NOx oxidation products (NOz) and OOA in urban Beijing in August 2012. The O3 concentrations exhibited similar variations at both the urban and urban background sites in Beijing. Regarding the O3 profile, the O3 concentrations increased with increasing altitude. The peaks in O3 on the days exceeding the 1h or 8h O3 standards (polluted days) were substantially wider than those on normal days. Significant increases in the NOz mixing ratio (i.e., NOy - NOx) were observed between the morning and early afternoon, which were consistent with the increasing oxidant level. A discernable NO3- peak was also observed in the morning on the polluted days, and this peak was attributed to vertical mixing and strong photochemical production. In addition, a SO42- peak at 18:00 was likely caused by a combination of local generation and regional transport. The OOA concentration cycle exhibited two peaks at approximately 10:00 and 19:00. The OOA concentrations were correlated well with SO42- ([OOA]=0.55×[SO42-]+2.1, r2=0.69) because they both originated from secondary transformations that were dependent on the ambient oxidization level and relative humidity. However, the slope between OOA and SO42- was only 0.35, which was smaller than the slope observed for all of the OOA and SO42- data, when the RH ranged from 40 to 50%. In addition, a photochemical episode was selected for analysis. The results showed that regional transport played an important role in the evolution of the investigated secondary pollutants. The measured OOA and Ox concentrations were well correlated at the daily scale, whereas the hourly OOA and Ox concentrations were insignificantly correlated in urban Beijing. The synoptic situation and the differences in the VOC oxidation contributing to O3 and SOAs may have resulted in the differences among the correlations between OOA and Ox at different time scale. We calculated OOA production rates using the photochemical age (defined as -log10(NOx/NOy)) in urban plumes. The CO-normalized OOA concentration increased with increasing photochemical age, with production rates ranging from 1.1 to 8.5µgm-3ppm-1h-1 for the plume from the NCP.

Inverse modeling of the 137Cs source term of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident constrained by a deposition map monitored by aircraft.

The amount of 137Cs released by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident of 11 March 2011 was inversely estimated by integrating an atmospheric dispersion model, an a priori source term, and map of deposition recorded by aircraft. An a posteriori source term refined finer (hourly) variations comparing with the a priori term, and estimated 137Cs released 11 March to 2 April to be 8.12 PBq. Although time series of the a posteriori source term was generally similar to those of the a priori source term, notable modifications were found in the periods when the a posteriori source term was well-constrained by the observations. Spatial pattern of 137Cs deposition with the a posteriori source term showed better agreement with the 137Cs deposition monitored by aircraft. The a posteriori source term increased 137Cs deposition in the Naka-dori region (the central part of Fukushima Prefecture) by 32.9%, and considerably improved the underestimated a priori 137Cs deposition. Observed values of deposition measured at 16 stations and surface atmospheric concentrations collected on a filter tape of suspended particulate matter were used for validation of the a posteriori results. A great improvement was found in surface atmospheric concentration on 15 March; the a posteriori source term reduced root mean square error, normalized mean error, and normalized mean bias by 13.4, 22.3, and 92.0% for the hourly values, respectively. However, limited improvements were observed in some periods and areas due to the difficulty in simulating accurate wind fields and the lack of the observational constraints.

Verification of NOx emission inventories over North Korea.

In this study, the top-down NOx emissions estimated from satellite observations of NO2 vertical column densities over North Korea from 1996 to 2009 were analyzed. Also, a bottom-up NOx emission inventory from REAS 1.1 from 1980 to 2005 was analyzed with several statistics. REAS 1.1 was in good agreement with the top-down approach for both trend and amount. The characteristics of NOx emissions in North Korea were quite different from other developed countries including South Korea. In North Korea, emissions from industry sector was the highest followed by transportation sector in the 1980s. However, after 1990, the NOx emissions from other sector, mainly agriculture, became the 2nd highest. Also, no emission centers such as urban areas or industrial areas were distinctively observed. Finally, the monthly NOx emissions were high during the warm season.

Sensitivity analyses of factors influencing CMAQ performance for fine particulate nitrate.

UNLABELLED: Improvement of air quality models is required so that they can be utilized to design effective control strategies for fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system was applied to the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan in winter 2010 and summer 2011. The model results were compared with observed concentrations of PM2.5 sulfate (SO4(2-)), nitrate (NO3(-)) and ammonium, and gaseous nitric acid (HNO3) and ammonia (NH3). The model approximately reproduced PM2.5 SO4(2-) concentration, but clearly overestimated PM2.5 NO3(-) concentration, which was attributed to overestimation of production of ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3). This study conducted sensitivity analyses of factors associated with the model performance for PM2.5 NO3(-) concentration, including temperature and relative humidity, emission of nitrogen oxides, seasonal variation of NH3 emission, HNO3 and NH3 dry deposition velocities, and heterogeneous reaction probability of dinitrogen pentoxide. Change in NH3 emission directly affected NH3 concentration, and substantially affected NH4NO3 concentration. Higher dry deposition velocities of HNO3 and NH3 led to substantial reductions of concentrations of the gaseous species and NH4NO3. Because uncertainties in NH3 emission and dry deposition processes are probably large, these processes may be key factors for improvement of the model performance for PM2.5 NO3(-). IMPLICATIONS: The Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system clearly overestimated the concentration of fine particulate nitrate in the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan, which was attributed to overestimation of production of ammonium nitrate. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for factors associated with the model performance for nitrate. Ammonia emission and dry deposition of nitric acid and ammonia may be key factors for improvement of the model performance.

Episode analysis of deposition of radiocesium from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

Chemical transport models played key roles in understanding the atmospheric behaviors and deposition patterns of radioactive materials emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the nuclear accident that accompanied the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. However, model results could not be sufficiently evaluated because of limited observational data. We assess the model performance to simulate the deposition patterns of radiocesium ((137)Cs) by making use of airborne monitoring survey data for the first time. We conducted ten sensitivity simulations to evaluate the atmospheric model uncertainties associated with key model settings including emission data and wet deposition modules. We found that simulation using emissions estimated with a regional-scale (∼ 500 km) model better reproduced the observed (137)Cs deposition pattern in eastern Japan than simulation using emissions estimated with local-scale (∼ 50 km) or global-scale models. In addition, simulation using a process-based wet deposition module reproduced the observations well, whereas simulation using scavenging coefficients showed large uncertainties associated with empirical parameters. The best-available simulation reproduced the observed (137)Cs deposition rates in high-deposition areas (≥ 10 kBq m(-2)) within 1 order of magnitude and showed that deposition of radiocesium over land occurred predominantly during 15-16, 20-23, and 30-31 March 2011.

Radiocarbon (14C) diurnal variations in fine particles at sites downwind from Tokyo, Japan in summer.

The radiocarbon ((14)C) of total carbon (TC) in atmospheric fine particles was measured at 6 h or 12 h intervals at two sites, 50 and 100 km downwind from Tokyo, Japan (Kisai and Maebashi) in summer 2007. The percent modern carbon (pMC) showed clear diurnal variations with minimums in the daytime. The mean pMC values at Maebashi were 28 ± 7 in the daytime and 45 ± 16 at night (37 ± 15 for the overall period). Those at Kisai were 26 ± 9 in the daytime and 44 ± 8 at night (37 ± 12 for the overall period). This data indicates that fossil sources were major contributors to the daytime TC, while fossil and modern sources had comparable contributions to nighttime TC in the suburban areas. At both sites, the concentration of fossil carbon as well as O(3) and the estimated secondary organic carbon increased in the daytime. These results suggest that fossil sources around Tokyo contributed significantly to the high daytime concentration of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) at the two suburban sites. A comparison of pMC and the ratio of elemental carbon/TC from our particulate samples with those from three end-member sources corroborates the dominant role of fossil SOA in the daytime.

Contrasting diurnal variations in fossil and nonfossil secondary organic aerosol in urban outflow, Japan.

Diurnal variations of fossil secondary organic carbon (SOC) and nonfossil SOC were determined for the first time using a combination of several carbonaceous aerosol measurement techniques, including radiocarbon (¹4C) determinations by accelerator mass spectrometry, and a receptor model (chemical mass balance, CMB) at a site downwind of Tokyo during the summer of 2007. Fossil SOC showed distinct diurnal variation with a maximum during daytime, whereas diurnal variation of nonfossil SOC was relatively small. This behavior was reproduced by a chemical transport model (CTM). However, the CTM underestimated the concentration of anthropogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA) by a factor of 4-7, suggesting that ASOA enhancement during daytime is not explained by production from volatile organic compounds that are traditionally considered major ASOA precursors. This result suggests that unidentified semivolatile organic compounds or multiphase chemistry may contribute largely to ASOA production. As our knowledge of production pathways of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is still limited, diurnal variations of fossil and nonfossil SOC in our estimate give an important experimental constraint for future development of SOA models.