Morbidity and mortality among a cohort of HIV-infected adults in a programme for community home-based care, in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania (2003-2005).

Community home-based care (CHBC) plays an integral role in the care of HIV-infected patients living in resource-limited regions. A longitudinal cohort study has recently been conducted, in the Kilimanjaro Region of northern Tanzania, in order to identify the components of an effective CHBC programme. Structured questionnaires were administered to clients over two census rounds, one in October 2003-February 2004 and the other in January 2005-October 2005. In the second round, follow-up interviews were completed for 226 (87.9%) of the 257 clients included in the first round. The clients included in the first round had a median (range) age of 38 (20-66) years and 182 (75.2%) of them were female. Although only 27 (12.9%) of them were using antiretroviral therapy (ART) when first interviewed, 108 (44.6%) were taking trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (SXT) prophylaxis. By the time of the follow-up interviews, 102 (45.1%) of the clients included in the first round had died, giving a mortality of 51/100 person-years of observation. The primary cause of death for 87 (85.3%) of the clients who had died was respiratory and/or gastro-intestinal infection, and the most common contributory causes of death were malnutrition (81.4%) and anaemia (42.2%). On bivariable analysis, the following first-round conditions were found to be significantly associated with death by the second census round: weakness for >1 month [odds ratio (OR)=2.64; P=0.008]; oral thrush (OR=2.31; P=0.015); painful swallowing (OR=2.02; P=0.036); staying in bed for part of the day over most of the previous month (OR=1.94; P=0.017); fever for >1 month (OR=1.95; P=0.016); and severe bacterial infections (OR=1.80; P=0.036). The high mortality was associated with advanced, symptomatic HIV disease for which antiretroviral therapy was indicated. Clients who were in the advanced stages of HIV disease (as defined by the World Health Organization's criteria) in the first census round were significantly more likely to have died by the time of the second round than the other clients investigated (log-rank chi(2)=8.115; P=0.044). The high level of morbidity observed in this study, and the causes of mortality that were identified, emphasise the need for CHBC programmes to provide HIV-infected patients with improved access to basic resources such as SXT and isoniazid prophylaxis, clean water, oral rehydration therapy, and micronutrient supplementation, in addition to increased access to ART.

Lower limb cellulitis: features associated with length of hospital stay.

AIMS: This study aimed to identify features associated with length of hospital stay (LOHS), length of intravenous antibiotic therapy (LIVAT) and six-week outcomes for patients with lower limb cellulitis, and to test the Eron/Passos classification of cellulitis in the New Zealand system. METHODS: Eighty-five variables were collected prospectively from a cohort of 51 inpatients admitted to Christchurch hospital. The primary end-point for analysis was LOHS. LIVAT and six-week outcomes were secondary end-points. RESULTS: On univariate analysis use of diuretics, living alone, cellulitis acuity, a creatinine concentration of >0.1 mmol/l, poor mobility, pulse >90 bpm, age >70 years, oedema extent, chronic oedema, ulceration, neutrophil count >10x10(9)/l, erythema area >1000 cm2 and haemoglobin concentration less than normal were significantly (P= or <0.05) associated with LOHS. A stay of < or =3 days was associated with less oedema, absence of diuretic use and less acute cellulitis. A stay of >7 days was associated with use of diuretics, living alone, age >70 years, more oedema, erythema area >1000 cm2, haemoglobin less than normal, ulceration, creatinine >0.1 mmol/l and poor mobility. The presence of a discharge was associated with LIVAT. Multivariate analysis accounted for 48% of the variance in LOHS and 16% for LIVAT. Use of diuretics, neutrophil count >10x10(9)/l and oedema score were independently associated with LOHS, with oedema score associated with short stay and diuretic use with long stay. The Eron/Passos system was not helpful so a new scoring system was devised which successfully classified patients into length of stay groups. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical features analysed accounted for half of the variance in LOHS. An important reason may be physician discretion. If so, our scoring system based on these results could be used in a clinical pathway to improve patient care. This tool would need to be evaluated prospectively.