Spatial variations in STIs among women enrolled in HIV prevention clinical trials in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

South Africa is faced with a high HIV and STI prevalence and incidence, respectively, with pockets of high burden areas driving these diseases. Localised monitoring of the HIV epidemic and STI endemic would enable more effective targeted prevention strategies. We assessed spatial variations in curable STI incidence among a cohort of women enrolled in HIV prevention clinical trials between 2002 and 2012. STI incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five HIV prevention trials were geo-mapped using participant household GPS coordinates. Age and period standardised incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment areas and Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and spatial patterns of STI infections in recruitment communities. Overall age and period standardised STI incidence rate were estimated as 15 per 100 PY and ranged from 6 to 24 per 100 PY. We identified five significant STI high risk areas with higher-than-expected incidence of STIs located centrally (three-locations) and southern neighbouring areas of Durban (two-locations). Younger age (<25), not married/cohabitating, parity <3 and poor education were all significant correlates of high STI communities. Findings demonstrate sustained STI incidence rates across the greater Durban area. The role of STI incidence in HIV acquisition in high HIV endemic areas need to be revisited as current highly effective PrEP interventions do not protect from STI acquisition. In these settings there is an urgent need for integrative HIV and STI prevention and treatment services.

The effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on malaria transmission in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: For a country such as South Africa which is targeting malaria elimination, mobile and migrant populations pose a substantial risk to importation of malaria parasites. It has been hypothesized that halting cross-border movement of mobile and migrant populations will decrease the importation of malaria, however this option is not a politically, operationally, and financially viable prospect. It has social impacts as well, since families live on either side of the border and preventing travel will challenge family ties. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and closure of ports of entry (land and air) for non-essential travel into South Africa, a unique opportunity arose to test the hypothesis. METHODOLOGY: An interrupted time series analysis was done to assess whether the post-lockdown trends (April-December 2020) in monthly reported imported and local cases differed from the pre-lockdown trends (January 2015-March 2020). The analysis was conducted separately for KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo provinces. RESULTS: On average, imported cases were lower in the post-intervention period in all three provinces, and local cases were lower in Mpumalanga and Limpopo, though no results were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Since population movement continued after the travel restrictions were lifted, border screening with testing and treating should be considered for reducing parasite movement. Another option is reducing malaria cases at the source in neighbouring countries by implementing proven, effective vector and parasite control strategies and through a downstream effect reduce malaria entering South Africa.

Impact of marital status on risk of HIV in South Africa (2002-2017).

After decades of research, South African women continue to have the highest burden of HIV in the world. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of marital status on HIV using population and community-level data sources. We included data 13,469 and 5682 South African women who participated to South African HIV behavioural surveys in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively. HIV prevalence and incidence rates were significantly higher among single/not-cohabiting women compared to those married/cohabiting with a partner in all survey participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.60 and 1.58 in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively). A quarter of the HIV diagnoses were attributed to those who were single/not-cohabiting women (population attributable risk (PAR%): 25% and 24%, respectively). More than 40% of the HIV infections were exclusively associated with single women (PAR%: 42%, 95% CI: 33%, 51%). Our results provided strong evidence for the profound impact of marital status on excess HIV infection rates. Targeting and reaching single/not-cohabiting women with multiple risk factors can potentially play a crucial role in the trajectories of the epidemic.

Temporal and spatial monitoring of HIV prevalence and incidence rates using geospatial models: Results from South African women.

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to predict non-linear distributions of HIV prevalence and incidence based on semiparametric methods. The GAMs also provide smooth intensity maps by projecting the predicted HIV prevalence (or incidence) into the contour maps. Two sets of geo-coded data sources were used: (1) population-based cross-sectional data from 10,928 women who participated in four HIV behavioral surveys (2002-2017), (2) clinic-based longitudinal data from 7,557 women who resided in KwaZulu-Natal (2002-2016). Model estimated degrees of freedoms were 15.84,12.17,7.64 and 15.08 (2002-2012), indicating substantial spatial variations in HIV prevalence overtime. At localized-level these HIV incidence ranged from 15 to 18 per 100 person-year and scattered across the relatively homogeneous area within less than 100 km radius. These significant quantitative evidence were further supported by continuous-scale intensity maps. Our findings provided empirical and visual evidence for the changing face of the epidemic in South Africa using geospatial methods.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reactive, targeted indoor residual spraying for malaria control in low-transmission settings: a cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Increasing insecticide costs and constrained malaria budgets could make universal vector control strategies, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS), unsustainable in low-transmission settings. We investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a reactive, targeted IRS strategy. METHODS: This cluster-randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial compared reactive, targeted IRS with standard IRS practice in northeastern South Africa over two malaria seasons (2015-17). In standard IRS clusters, programme managers conducted annual mass spray campaigns prioritising areas using historical data, expert opinion, and other factors. In targeted IRS clusters, only houses of index cases (identified through passive surveillance) and their immediate neighbours were sprayed. The non-inferiority margin was 1 case per 1000 person-years. Health service costs of real-world implementation were modelled from primary and secondary data. Incremental costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) were estimated and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses conducted. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02556242. FINDINGS: Malaria incidence was 0·95 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·58 to 1·32) in the standard IRS group and 1·05 per 1000 person-years (0·72 to 1·38) in the targeted IRS group, corresponding to a rate difference of 0·10 per 1000 person-years (-0·38 to 0·59), demonstrating non-inferiority for targeted IRS (p<0·0001). Per additional DALY incurred, targeted IRS saved US$7845 (2902 to 64 907), giving a 94-98% probability that switching to targeted IRS would be cost-effective relative to plausible cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa ($2637 to $3557 per DALY averted). Depending on the threshold used, targeted IRS would remain cost-effective at incidences of less than 2·0-2·7 per 1000 person-years. Findings were robust to plausible variation in other parameters. INTERPRETATION: Targeted IRS was non-inferior, safe, less costly, and cost-effective compared with standard IRS in this very-low-transmission setting. Saved resources could be reallocated to other malaria control and elimination activities. FUNDING: Joint Global Health Trials.

Characteristics of women who use hormonal contraceptives and their population-level impacts on HIV infection in a cohort of South African women (2002-2016).

PURPOSE: Women's choice of contraceptive can have broader implications and may play a significant role in shaping their sexual practices. We aim to identify the characteristics of women who use hormonal injectables and those at high-risk of HIV infection. We also quantify the population-level impact of their shared characteristics on HIV incidence rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 9948 women who enrolled in six-HIV prevention trials conducted in South Africa (2002-2016) were included. We used logistic and Cox regression models and estimated the population-level impact of the use of injectables on HIV incidence in the multifactorial-model setting. RESULTS: Using hormonal injectables were associated with increased risk of HIV infection (adjusted Hazard ratio (aHR):1.51, 95% CI:1.22, 1.86). At the population level less than 20% of the infections were associated with injectable contraceptives among younger women (i.e., less than 35 years of age). Factors including being single/not-cohabiting, using condoms at last sex, partner-related factors, and STI diagnosis were all identified as shared characteristics of women who preferred using hormonal injectables and those at high-risk of HIV infection. At the population level, these factors were associated with more than 50% of the infections among women younger than 35 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis presented evidence for the overlapping characteristics of the women who used hormonal injectables and those at high-risk of HIV infection. These findings reinforce the importance of comprehensive contraceptive counselling to women about the importance of dual protection, such as male condoms and hormonal contraceptives use.

Correlates of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among South African Women Using Individual- and Community-Level Factors: Results from Generalized Additive Mixed Models.

South Africa has the highest burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in the world. There is also growing evidence that an individual's risk of contracting HIV is increased by the presence of other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The primary objective of this study was to examine the association between the prevalence of STIs in a cohort of South African women who enrolled in HIV prevention trials (2002-2012). The current study linked the individual factors with the community-level characteristics using geo-referencing. These multi-level data were analyzed in generalized additive mixed models settings. In the multivariate logistic regression model, younger age (odds ratio [OR] 4.30, 95% CI 3.20, 5.77 and OR 2.72, 95% CI 2.02, 3.66 for age < 25 and 25-29, respectively); being single/not cohabiting (OR 4.57, 95% CI 3.18, 6.53), two + sex partners (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.18,1.80); parity < 2 (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.53, 2.72), parity = 2 (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.37, 2.48), and using injectables (contraceptive) (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.13, 2.06) were all significantly associated with increased prevalence of STIs. Women who resided in the communities with high proportions of female headed-households were also significantly at higher risk for STIs (OR 1.20, p = .0025). Because these factors may reflect characteristics of the larger groups who share similar cultural norms and social environments, they can provide considerable insight into the spread of STIs. Prevention strategies based on individual and community-level drivers of STIs are likely to be the most effective means of targeting and reaching those at greatest risk of infection. This strategy has the potential to play a significant role in the epidemic's trajectory.

A decade of sustained geographic spread of HIV infections among women in Durban, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Fine scale geospatial analysis of HIV infection patterns can be used to facilitate geographically targeted interventions. Our objective was to use the geospatial technology to map age and time standardized HIV incidence rates over a period of 10 years to identify communities at high risk of HIV in the greater Durban area. METHODS: HIV incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five community-based HIV prevention trials (2002-2012) were mapped using participant household global positioning system (GPS) coordinates. Age and period standardized HIV incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment clusters across greater Durban. Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and clustering of new HIV infections in recruitment communities. RESULTS: The total person-time in the cohort was 9093.93 years and 613 seroconversions were observed. The overall crude HIV incidence rate across all communities was 6·74 per 100PY (95% CI: 6·22-7·30). 95% of the clusters had HIV incidence rates greater than 3 per 100PY. The CAR analysis identified six communities with significantly high HIV incidence. Estimated relative risks for these clusters ranged from 1.34 to 1.70. Consistent with these results, age standardized HIV incidence rates were also highest in these clusters and estimated to be 10 or more per 100 PY. Compared to women 35+ years old younger women were more likely to reside in the highest incidence areas (aOR: 1·51, 95% CI: 1·06-2·15; aOR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1·19-2·14 and aOR: 1·62, 95% CI: 1·2-2·18 for < 20, 20-24, 25-29 years old respectively). Partnership factors (2+ sex partners and being unmarried/not cohabiting) were also more common in the highest incidence clusters (aOR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.25-1.75 and aOR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28-1.84 respectively). CONCLUSION: Fine geospatial analysis showed a continuous, unrelenting, hyper HIV epidemic in most of the greater Durban region with six communities characterised by particularly high levels of HIV incidence. The results motivate for comprehensive community-based HIV prevention approaches including expanded access to PrEP. In addition, a higher concentration of HIV related services is required in the highest risk communities to effectively reach the most vulnerable populations.

Effectiveness of 24-h mobile reporting tool during a malaria outbreak in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: As surveillance is a key strategy for malaria elimination in South Africa, ensuring strong surveillance systems is a National Department of Health priority. Historically, real time tracking of case trends and reporting within 24 h-a requirement in South Africa's National surveillance guidelines-has not been possible. To enhance surveillance and response efficiency, a mobile surveillance tool, MalariaConnect, was developed using Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) technology. It was rolled out in health facilities in malaria endemic areas of South Africa to provide 24-h reporting of malaria cases. METHODS: To evaluate the efficiency of the mobile tool to detect an outbreak data were extracted from the paper based and MalariaConnect reporting systems in Bushbuckridge from 1 January to 18 June 2017. These data were subject to time series analyses to determine if MalariaConnect provided sufficient data reliably to detect increasing case trends reported through the paper system. The Chi squared test was used to determine goodness of fit between the following indicator data generated using MalariaConnect and paper reporting systems: timeliness, completeness, and precision. RESULTS: MalariaConnect adequately tracked case trends reported through the paper system. Timeliness of reporting increased significantly using MalariaConnect with 0.63 days to notification compared to 5.65 days using the paper-system (p < 0.05). The completeness of reporting was significantly higher for the paper system (100% completion; p < 0.05), compared to confirmed MalariaConnect cases (61%). There was a moderate association between data precision and the reporting system (p < 0.05). MalariaConnect provided an effective way of reliably and accurately identifying the onset of the malaria outbreak in Bushbuckridge. CONCLUSION: Timeliness significantly improved using MalariaConnect and in a malaria elimination setting, can be used to markedly improve case investigation and response activities within the recommended 72-h period. Although data completeness and precision were lower compared to paper reporting, MalariaConnect data can be used to trigger outbreak responses.

Spatial Patterns of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Background: Transmission is driving the global drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) epidemic; nearly three-quarters of drug-resistant TB cases are attributable to transmission. Geographic patterns of disease incidence, combined with information on probable transmission links, can define the spatial scale of transmission and generate hypotheses about factors driving transmission patterns. Methods: We combined whole-genome sequencing data with home Global Positioning System coordinates from 344 participants with extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, diagnosed from 2011 to 2014. We aimed to determine if genomically linked (difference of ≤5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) cases lived close to one another, which would suggest a role for local community settings in transmission. Results: One hundred eighty-two study participants were genomically linked, comprising 1084 case-pairs. The median distance between case-pairs' homes was 108 km (interquartile range, 64-162 km). Between-district, as compared to within-district, links accounted for the majority (912/1084 [84%]) of genomic links. Half (526 [49%]) of genomic links involved a case from Durban, the urban center of KwaZulu-Natal. Conclusions: The high proportions of between-district links with Durban provide insight into possible drivers of province-wide XDR-TB transmission, including urban-rural migration. Further research should focus on characterizing the contribution of these drivers to overall XDR-TB transmission in KwaZulu-Natal to inform design of targeted strategies to curb the drug-resistant TB epidemic.

Spatial distribution of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) patients in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, has among the highest burden of XDR TB worldwide with the majority of cases occurring due to transmission. Poor access to health facilities can be a barrier to timely diagnosis and treatment of TB, which can contribute to ongoing transmission. We sought to determine the geographic distribution of XDR TB patients and proximity to health facilities in KwaZulu-Natal. METHODS: We recruited adults and children with XDR TB diagnosed in KwaZulu-Natal. We calculated distance and time from participants' home to the closest hospital or clinic, as well as to the actual facility that diagnosed XDR TB, using tools within ArcGIS Network analyst. Speed of travel was assigned to road classes based on Department of Transport regulations. Results were compared to guidelines for the provision of social facilities in South Africa: 5km to a clinic and 30km to a hospital. RESULTS: During 2011-2014, 1027 new XDR TB cases were diagnosed throughout all 11 districts of KwaZulu-Natal, of whom 404 (39%) were enrolled and had geospatial data collected. Participants would have had to travel a mean distance of 2.9 km (CI 95%: 1.8-4.1) to the nearest clinic and 17.6 km (CI 95%: 11.4-23.8) to the nearest hospital. Actual distances that participants travelled to the health facility that diagnosed XDR TB ranged from <10 km (n = 143, 36%) to >50 km (n = 109, 27%), with a mean of 69 km. The majority (77%) of participants travelled farther than the recommended distance to a clinic (5 km) and 39% travelled farther than the recommended distance to a hospital (30 km). Nearly half (46%) of participants were diagnosed at a health facility in eThekwini district, of whom, 36% resided outside the Durban metropolitan area. CONCLUSIONS: XDR TB cases are widely distributed throughout KwaZulu-Natal province with a denser focus in eThekwini district. Patients travelled long distances to the health facility where they were diagnosed with XDR TB, suggesting a potential role for migration or transportation in the XDR TB epidemic.

Serology reveals heterogeneity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in northeastern South Africa: implications for malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: It is widely acknowledged that modifications to existing control interventions are required if South Africa is to achieve malaria elimination. Targeting indoor residual spraying (IRS) to areas where cases have been detected is one strategy currently under investigation in northeastern South Africa. This seroprevalence baseline study, nested within a targeted IRS trial, was undertaken to provide insights into malaria transmission dynamics in South Africa and evaluate whether sero-epidemiological practices have the potential to be routinely incorporated into elimination programmes. METHODS: Filter-paper blood spots, demographic and household survey data were collected from 2710 randomly selected households in 56 study wards located in the municipalities of Ba-Phalaborwa and Bushbuckridge. Blood spots were assayed for Plasmodium falciparum apical membrane antigen-1 and merozoite surface protein-119 blood-stage antigens using an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Seroprevalence data were analysed using a reverse catalytic model to determine malaria seroconversion rates (SCR). Geospatial cluster analysis was used to investigate transmission heterogeneity while random effects logistic regression identified risk factors associated with malaria exposure. RESULTS: The overall SCR across the entire study site was 0.012 (95% CI 0.008-0.017) per year. Contrasting SCRs, corresponding to distinct geographical regions across the study site, ranging from <0.001 (95% CI <0.001-0.005) to 0.022 (95% CI 0.008-0.062) per annum revealed prominent transmission heterogeneity. Geospatial cluster analysis of household seroprevalence and age-adjusted antibody responses detected statistically significant (p < 0.05) spatial clusters of P. falciparum exposure. Formal secondary education was associated with lower malaria exposure in the sampled population (AOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.95, p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Although overall transmission intensity and exposure to malaria was low across both study sites, malaria transmission intensity was highly heterogeneous and associated with low socio-economic status in the region. Findings suggest focal targeting of interventions has the potential to be an appropriate strategy to deploy in South Africa. Furthermore, routinely incorporating sero-epidemiological practices into elimination programmes may prove useful in monitoring malaria transmission intensity in South Africa, and other countries striving for malaria elimination.

Transmission of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis threatens recent gains in the treatment of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection worldwide. A widespread epidemic of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is occurring in South Africa, where cases have increased substantially since 2002. The factors driving this rapid increase have not been fully elucidated, but such knowledge is needed to guide public health interventions. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study involving 404 participants in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with a diagnosis of XDR tuberculosis between 2011 and 2014. Interviews and medical-record reviews were used to elicit information on the participants' history of tuberculosis and HIV infection, hospitalizations, and social networks. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates underwent insertion sequence (IS)6110 restriction-fragment-length polymorphism analysis, targeted gene sequencing, and whole-genome sequencing. We used clinical and genotypic case definitions to calculate the proportion of cases of XDR tuberculosis that were due to inadequate treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (i.e., acquired resistance) versus those that were due to transmission (i.e., transmitted resistance). We used social-network analysis to identify community and hospital locations of transmission. RESULTS: Of the 404 participants, 311 (77%) had HIV infection; the median CD4+ count was 340 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 117 to 431). A total of 280 participants (69%) had never received treatment for MDR tuberculosis. Genotypic analysis in 386 participants revealed that 323 (84%) belonged to 1 of 31 clusters. Clusters ranged from 2 to 14 participants, except for 1 large cluster of 212 participants (55%) with a LAM4/KZN strain. Person-to-person or hospital-based epidemiologic links were identified in 123 of 404 participants (30%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of cases of XDR tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, an area with a high tuberculosis burden, were probably due to transmission rather than to inadequate treatment of MDR tuberculosis. These data suggest that control of the epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis requires an increased focus on interrupting transmission. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.).

Sustaining control: lessons from the Lubombo spatial development initiative in southern Africa.

BACKGROUND: The Lubombo Spatial Development Initiative (LSDI) was a tri-country project between South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique with the aim of accelerating socio-economic development in the region. The malaria component of the project was introduced to decrease the transmission of malaria in the region. This goal was met but with termination of this project resulted in an upsurge of malaria cases in the sub-region mainly as a result of migration from high transmission areas to low transmission ones. The movement of people across borders in southern Africa remains a challenge in sustaining malaria control and elimination. METHODS: Malaria case data for Swaziland and South Africa were obtained from their respective national Malaria Information Systems. Data for Mozambique was obtained from the Mozambican Ministry of Health. Data obtained during the course of the LSDI project was compared to the case data post the termination of the LSDI. RESULTS: The 12-year period of the LSDI showed a substantial decrease in disease burden amongst the three countries involved when compared to the baseline year of 2000. The decrease in malaria cases was 99 % in South Africa and 98 % in Swaziland. Malaria prevalence in Mozambique decreased by 85 % over the same period. However, after the LSDI ended, between 2012 and 2014, there was an upward trend in case data that was counter to the goal of elimination. CONCLUSION: South Africa and Swaziland benefitted from the LSDI and were able to sustain malaria control and progress to the stage of elimination. Mozambique could not sustain the gains made during the LSDI and case numbers increased. Technical and financial resources are key challenges for malaria control and elimination interventions.

Towards malaria elimination in the MOSASWA (Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland) region.

The substantial impact of cross-border collaborative control efforts on the burden of malaria in southern Africa has previously been demonstrated through the successes of the Lubombo Spatial Development Initiative. Increases in malaria cases recorded in the three partner countries (Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland) since termination of that programme in 2011 have provided impetus for the resuscitation of cooperation in the form of the MOSASWA malaria initiative. MOSASWA, launched in 2015, seeks to renew regional efforts to accelerate progress towards malaria elimination goals already established in the region. National malaria programmes, together with developmental partners, academic institutions and the private sector seek to harmonize policy, strengthen capacity, share expertise, expand access to elimination interventions particularly amongst migrant and border population groups, mobilize resources and advocate for long-term funding to ultimately achieve and sustain malaria elimination in the MOSASWA region.

Reviewing South Africa's malaria elimination strategy (2012-2018): progress, challenges and priorities.

BACKGROUND: With a sustained national malaria incidence of fewer than one case per 1000 population at risk, in 2012 South Africa officially transitioned from controlling malaria to the ambitious goal of eliminating malaria within its borders by 2018. This review assesses the progress made in the 3 years since programme re-orientation while highlighting challenges and suggesting priorities for moving the malaria programme towards elimination. METHODS: National malaria case data and annual spray coverage data from 2010 until 2014 were assessed for trends. Information on surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems, human and infrastructure needs and community malaria knowledge was sourced from the national programme mid-term review. RESULTS: Malaria cases increased markedly from 6811 in 2013 to 11,711 in 2014, with Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces most affected. Enhanced local transmission appeared to drive malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, while imported malaria cases accounted for the majority of cases reported in Mpumalanga Province. Despite these increases only Vhembe and Mopani districts in Limpopo Province reported malaria incidences more than one case per 1000 population at risk by 2014. Over the review period annual spray coverage did not reach the recommended target of 90 % coverage, with information gaps identified in parasite prevalence, artemether-lumefantrine therapeutic utilization, asymptomatic/sub-patent carriage, drug efficacy, vector distribution and insecticide resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Although South Africa has made steady progress since adopting an elimination agenda, a number of challenges have been identified. The heterogeneity of malaria transmission suggests interventions in Vhembe and Mopani districts should focus on control, while in KwaZulu-Natal Province eliminating transmission foci should be prioritized. Cross-border initiatives with neighbouring countries should be established/strengthened as a matter of urgency since malaria importation poses a real threat to the country's elimination efforts. It is also critical that provincial programmes are adequately resourced to effectively conduct the necessary targeted elimination activities, informed by current vector/parasite distribution and resistance data. More sensitive methods to detect sub-patent infections, primaquine as a transmission-blocking drug, and alternative vector control methods need to be investigated. Knowledge gaps among malaria health workers and affected communities should be identified and addressed.

The feasibility of malaria elimination in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Following the last major malaria epidemic in 2000, malaria incidence in South Africa has declined markedly. The decrease has been so emphatic that South Africa now meets the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for malaria elimination. Given the Millennium Development Goal of reversing the spread of malaria by 2015, South Africa is being urged to adopt an elimination agenda. This study aimed to determine the appropriateness of implementing a malaria elimination programme in present day South Africa. METHODS: An assessment of the progress made by South Africa in terms of implementing an integrated malaria control programme across the three malaria-endemic provinces was undertaken. Vector control and case management data were analysed from the period of 2000 until 2011. RESULTS: Both malaria-related morbidity and mortality have decreased significantly across all three malaria-endemic provinces since 2000. The greatest decline was seen in KwaZulu-Natal where cases decreased from 42,276 in 2000 to 380 in 2010 and deaths dropped from 122 in 2000 to six in 2010. Although there has been a 49.2 % (8,553 vs 4,214) decrease in the malaria cases reported in Limpopo Province, currently it is the largest contributor to the malaria incidence in South Africa. Despite all three provinces reporting average insecticide spray coverage of over 80%, malaria incidence in both Mpumalanga and Limpopo remains above the elimination threshold. Locally transmitted case numbers have declined in all three malaria provinces but imported case numbers have been increasing. Knowledge gaps in vector distribution, insecticide resistance status and drug usage were also identified. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria elimination in South Africa is a realistic possibility if certain criteria are met. Firstly, there must be continued support for the existing malaria control programmes to ensure the gains made are sustained. Secondly, cross border malaria control initiatives with neighbouring countries must be strongly encouraged and supported to reduce malaria in the region and the importation of malaria into South Africa. Thirdly, operational research, particularly on vector distribution and insecticide resistance status must be conducted as a matter of urgency, and finally, the surveillance systems must be refined to ensure the information required to inform an elimination agenda are routinely collected.

Use of Google Earth to strengthen public health capacity and facilitate management of vector-borne diseases in resource-poor environments.

OBJECTIVE: Novel, inexpensive solutions are needed for improved management of vector-borne and other diseases in resource-poor environments. Emerging free software providing access to satellite imagery and simple editing tools (e.g. Google Earth) complement existing geographic information system (GIS) software and provide new opportunities for: (i) strengthening overall public health capacity through development of information for city infrastructures; and (ii) display of public health data directly on an image of the physical environment. METHODS: We used freely accessible satellite imagery and a set of feature-making tools included in the software (allowing for production of polygons, lines and points) to generate information for city infrastructure and to display disease data in a dengue decision support system (DDSS) framework. FINDINGS: Two cities in Mexico (Chetumal and Merida) were used to demonstrate that a basic representation of city infrastructure useful as a spatial backbone in a DDSS can be rapidly developed at minimal cost. Data layers generated included labelled polygons representing city blocks, lines representing streets, and points showing the locations of schools and health clinics. City blocks were colour-coded to show presence of dengue cases. The data layers were successfully imported in a format known as shapefile into a GIS software. CONCLUSION: The combination of Google Earth and free GIS software (e.g. HealthMapper, developed by WHO, and SIGEpi, developed by PAHO) has tremendous potential to strengthen overall public health capacity and facilitate decision support system approaches to prevention and control of vector-borne diseases in resource-poor environments.

Geographic distribution of human immunodeficiency virus in South Africa.

In common with most countries, little is know about the geographic distribution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa. Variations in HIV infection of persons 15-24 years of age were modeled and mapped using generalized linear spatial models and Bayesian prediction based on data from a national HIV household survey conducted in 2003 and comprising 11,904 youth from approximately 700 enumeration areas that were randomly selected from the national census. The maps show considerable variation in HIV prevalence within provinces. The lowest levels were found in inland rural areas of the Western Cape, and the highest in northwestern parts of KwaZulu Natal, southern Mpumalanga, and eastern Free State. Prevalence of HIV was associated with ethnicity, urban status, and unemployment. Detailed maps of HIV prevalence can be effectively used in guiding and focusing intervention programs to areas of particular need.