Gene duplication and deletion caused by over-replication at a fork barrier.

Replication fork stalling can provoke fork reversal to form a four-way DNA junction. This remodelling of the replication fork can facilitate repair, aid bypass of DNA lesions, and enable replication restart, but may also pose a risk of over-replication during fork convergence. We show that replication fork stalling at a site-specific barrier in fission yeast can induce gene duplication-deletion rearrangements that are independent of replication restart-associated template switching and Rad51-dependent multi-invasion. Instead, they resemble targeted gene replacements (TGRs), requiring the DNA annealing activity of Rad52, the 3'-flap nuclease Rad16-Swi10, and mismatch repair protein Msh2. We propose that excess DNA, generated during the merging of a canonical fork with a reversed fork, can be liberated by a nuclease and integrated at an ectopic site via a TGR-like mechanism. This highlights how over-replication at replication termination sites can threaten genome stability in eukaryotes.

Rad52's DNA annealing activity drives template switching associated with restarted DNA replication.

It is thought that many of the simple and complex genomic rearrangements associated with congenital diseases and cancers stem from mistakes made during the restart of collapsed replication forks by recombination enzymes. It is hypothesised that this recombination-mediated restart process transitions from a relatively accurate initiation phase to a less accurate elongation phase characterised by extensive template switching between homologous, homeologous and microhomologous DNA sequences. Using an experimental system in fission yeast, where fork collapse is triggered by a site-specific replication barrier, we show that ectopic recombination, associated with the initiation of recombination-dependent replication (RDR), is driven mainly by the Rad51 recombinase, whereas template switching, during the elongation phase of RDR, relies more on DNA annealing by Rad52. This finding provides both evidence and a mechanistic basis for the transition hypothesis.

Estimating Tuberculosis Transmission Risks in a Primary Care Clinic in South Africa: Modeling of Environmental and Clinical Data.

BACKGROUND: Congregate settings, such as healthcare clinics, may play an essential role in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. Using patient and environmental data, we studied transmission at a primary care clinic in South Africa. METHODS: We collected patient movements, cough frequency, and clinical data, and measured indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, relative humidity, and Mtb genomes in the air. We used negative binomial regression model to investigate associations. RESULTS: We analyzed 978 unique patients who contributed 14 795 data points. The median patient age was 33 (interquartile range [IQR], 26-41) years, and 757 (77.4%) were female. Overall, median CO2 levels were 564 (IQR 495-646) parts per million and were highest in the morning. Median number of coughs per day was 466 (IQR, 368-503), and overall median Mtb DNA copies/µL/day was 4.2 (IQR, 1.2-9.5). We found an increased presence of Mtb DNA in the air of 32% (95% credible interval, 7%-63%) per 100 additional young adults (aged 15-29 years) and 1% (0-2%) more Mtb DNA per 10% increase of relative humidity. Estimated cumulative transmission risks for patients attending the clinic monthly for at least 1 hour range between 9% and 29%. CONCLUSIONS: We identified young adults and relative humidity as potentially important factors for transmission risks in healthcare clinics. Our approach should be used to detect transmission and evaluate infection control interventions.

Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission - a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys.

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings. Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings. Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made. Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Infectious diseases, particularly those caused by airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, spread by social contact, and understanding how people mix is critical in controlling outbreaks. To explore these patterns, researchers typically carry out large contact surveys. Participants are asked for personal information (such as gender, age and occupation), as well as details of recent social contacts, usually those that happened in the last 24 hours. This information includes, the age and gender of the contact, where the interaction happened, how long it lasted, and whether it involved physical touch. These kinds of surveys help scientists to predict how infectious diseases might spread. But there is a problem: most of the data come from high-income countries, and there is evidence to suggest that social contact patterns differ between places. Therefore, data from these countries might not be useful for predicting how infections spread in lower-income regions. Here, Mousa et al. have collected and combined data from 27 contact surveys carried out before the COVID-19 pandemic to see how baseline social interactions vary between high- and lower-income settings. The comparison revealed that, in higher-income countries, the number of daily contacts people made decreased with age. But, in lower-income countries, younger and older individuals made similar numbers of contacts and mixed with all age groups. In higher-income countries, more contacts happened at work or school, while in low-income settings, more interactions happened at home and people were also more likely to live in larger, intergenerational households. Mousa et al. also found that gender affected how long contacts lasted and whether they involved physical contact, both of which are key risk factors for transmitting airborne pathogens. These findings can help researchers to predict how infectious diseases might spread in different settings. They can also be used to assess how effective non-medical restrictions, like shielding of the elderly and workplace closures, will be at reducing transmissions in different parts of the world.

Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contact Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings. METHODS: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings. RESULTS: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, but low-income settings were characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made. CONCLUSIONS: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. FUNDING: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Capture and visualization of live Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli from tuberculosis patient bioaerosols.

Interrupting transmission is an attractive anti-tuberculosis (TB) strategy but it remains underexplored owing to our poor understanding of the events surrounding transfer of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) between hosts. Determining when live, infectious Mtb bacilli are released and by whom has proven especially challenging. Consequently, transmission chains are inferred only retrospectively, when new cases are diagnosed. This process, which relies on molecular analyses of Mtb isolates for epidemiological fingerprinting, is confounded by the prolonged infectious period of TB and the potential for transmission from transient exposures. We developed a Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC) equipped with high-efficiency filtration and sampling technologies for liquid-capture of all particulate matter (including Mtb) released during respiration and non-induced cough. Combining the mycobacterial cell wall probe, DMN-trehalose, with fluorescence microscopy of RASC-captured bioaerosols, we detected and quantified putative live Mtb bacilli in bioaerosol samples arrayed in nanowell devices. The RASC enabled non-invasive capture and isolation of viable Mtb from bioaerosol within 24 hours of collection. A median 14 live Mtb bacilli (range 0-36) were isolated in single-cell format from 90% of confirmed TB patients following 60 minutes bioaerosol sampling. This represented a significant increase over previous estimates of transmission potential, implying that many more organisms might be released daily than commonly assumed. Moreover, variations in DMN-trehalose incorporation profiles suggested metabolic heterogeneity in aerosolized Mtb. Finally, preliminary analyses indicated the capacity for serial image capture and analysis of nanowell-arrayed bacilli for periods extending into weeks. These observations support the application of this technology to longstanding questions in TB transmission including the propensity for asymptomatic transmission, the impact of TB treatment on Mtb bioaerosol release, and the physiological state of aerosolized bacilli.

The Bloom syndrome complex senses RPA-coated single-stranded DNA to restart stalled replication forks.

The Bloom syndrome helicase BLM interacts with topoisomerase IIIα (TOP3A), RMI1 and RMI2 to form the BTR complex, which dissolves double Holliday junctions to produce non-crossover homologous recombination (HR) products. BLM also promotes DNA-end resection, restart of stalled replication forks, and processing of ultra-fine DNA bridges in mitosis. How these activities of the BTR complex are regulated in cells is still unclear. Here, we identify multiple conserved motifs within the BTR complex that interact cooperatively with the single-stranded DNA (ssDNA)-binding protein RPA. Furthermore, we demonstrate that RPA-binding is required for stable BLM recruitment to sites of DNA replication stress and for fork restart, but not for its roles in HR or mitosis. Our findings suggest a model in which the BTR complex contains the intrinsic ability to sense levels of RPA-ssDNA at replication forks, which controls BLM recruitment and activation in response to replication stress.

Sensitivity optimisation of tuberculosis bioaerosol sampling.

INTRODUCTION: Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) in patient-derived bioaerosol is a potential tool to measure source case infectiousness. However, current bioaerosol sampling approaches have reported low detection yields in sputum-positive TB cases. To increase the utility of bioaerosol sampling, we present advances in bioaerosol collection and Mtb identification that improve detection yields. METHODS: A previously described Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC) protocol, or "RASC-1", was modified to incorporate liquid collection of bioaerosol using a high-flow wet-walled cyclone (RASC-2). Individuals with GeneXpert-positive pulmonary TB were sampled pre-treatment over 60-minutes. Putative Mtb bacilli were detected in collected fluid by fluorescence microscopy utilising DMN-Trehalose. Exhaled air and bioaerosol volumes were estimated using continuous CO2 monitoring and airborne particle counting, respectively. Mtb capture was calculated per exhaled air volume sampled and bioaerosol volume for RASC-1 (n = 35) and for RASC-2 (n = 21). Empty chamber samples were collected between patients as controls. RESULTS: The optimised RASC-2 protocol sampled a median of 258.4L (IQR: 226.9-273.6) of exhaled air per patient compared with 27.5L (IQR: 23.6-30.3) for RASC-1 (p<0.0001). Bioaerosol volume collection was estimated at 2.3nL (IQR: 1.1-3.6) for RASC-2 compared with 0.08nL (IQR: 0.05-0.10) for RASC-1 (p<0.0001). The detection yield of viable Mtb improved from 43% (median 2 CFU, range: 1-14) to 95% (median 20.5 DMN-Trehalose positive bacilli, range: 2-155). These improvements represent a lowering of the limit of detection in the RASC-2 platform to 0.9 Mtb bacilli per 100L of exhaled air from 3.3 Mtb bacilli per 100L (RASC-1). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that technical improvements in particle collection together with sensitive detection enable rapid quantitation of viable Mtb in bioaerosols of sputum positive TB cases. Increased sampling sensitivity may allow future TB transmission studies to be extended to sputum-negative and subclinical individuals, and suggests the potential utility of bioaerosol measurement for rapid intervention in other airborne infectious diseases.

Novel approach to estimate tuberculosis transmission in primary care clinics in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol of a prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is difficult to measure, and its drivers are not well understood. The effectiveness of infection control measures at healthcare clinics and the most appropriate intervention strategies to interrupt transmission are unclear. We propose a novel approach using clinical, environmental and position-tracking data to study the risk of TB transmission at primary care clinics in TB and HIV high burden settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We describe a novel and rapid study design to assess risk factors for airborne TB transmission at primary care clinics in high-burden settings. The study protocol combines a range of different measurements. We will collect anonymous data on the number of patients, waiting times and patient movements using video sensors. Also, we will collect acoustic sound recordings to determine the frequency and intensity of coughing. Environmental data will include indoor carbon dioxide levels (CO2 in parts per million) and relative humidity. We will also extract routinely collected clinical data from the clinic records. The number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis particles in the air will be ascertained from dried filter units using highly sensitive digital droplet PCR. We will calculate rebreathed air volume based on people density and CO2 levels and develop a mathematical model to estimate the risk of TB transmission. The mathematical model can then be used to estimate the effect of possible interventions such as separating patient flows or improving ventilation in reducing transmission. The feasibility of our approach was recently demonstrated in a pilot study in a primary care clinic in Cape Town, South Africa. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the University of Cape Town (HREC/REF no. 228/2019), the City of Cape Town (ID-8139) and the Ethics Committee of the Canton Bern (2019-02131), Switzerland. The results will be disseminated in international peer-reviewed journals.

RISK6, a 6-gene transcriptomic signature of TB disease risk, diagnosis and treatment response.

Improved tuberculosis diagnostics and tools for monitoring treatment response are urgently needed. We developed a robust and simple, PCR-based host-blood transcriptomic signature, RISK6, for multiple applications: identifying individuals at risk of incident disease, as a screening test for subclinical or clinical tuberculosis, and for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. RISK6 utility was validated by blind prediction using quantitative real-time (qRT) PCR in seven independent cohorts. Prognostic performance significantly exceeded that of previous signatures discovered in the same cohort. Performance for diagnosing subclinical and clinical disease in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected persons, assessed by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, exceeded 85%. As a screening test for tuberculosis, the sensitivity at 90% specificity met or approached the benchmarks set out in World Health Organization target product profiles for non-sputum-based tests. RISK6 scores correlated with lung immunopathology activity, measured by positron emission tomography, and tracked treatment response, demonstrating utility as treatment response biomarker, while predicting treatment failure prior to treatment initiation. Performance of the test in capillary blood samples collected by finger-prick was noninferior to venous blood collected in PAXgene tubes. These results support incorporation of RISK6 into rapid, capillary blood-based point-of-care PCR devices for prospective assessment in field studies.

The PCNA unloader Elg1 promotes recombination at collapsed replication forks in fission yeast.

Protein-DNA complexes can impede DNA replication and cause replication fork collapse. Whilst it is known that homologous recombination is deployed in such instances to restart replication, it is unclear how a stalled fork transitions into a collapsed fork at which recombination proteins can load. Previously we established assays in Schizosaccharomyces pombe for studying recombination induced by replication fork collapse at the site-specific protein-DNA barrier RTS1 (Nguyen et al., 2015). Here, we provide evidence that efficient recruitment/retention of two key recombination proteins (Rad51 and Rad52) to RTS1 depends on unloading of the polymerase sliding clamp PCNA from DNA by Elg1. We also show that, in the absence of Elg1, reduced recombination is partially suppressed by deleting fbh1 or, to a lesser extent, srs2, which encode known anti-recombinogenic DNA helicases. These findings suggest that PCNA unloading by Elg1 is necessary to limit Fbh1 and Srs2 activity, and thereby enable recombination to proceed.

Estimating age-mixing patterns relevant for the transmission of airborne infections.

INTRODUCTION: Age-mixing patterns can have substantial effects on infectious disease dynamics and intervention effects. Data on close contacts (people spoken to and/or touched) are often used to estimate age-mixing. These are not the only relevant contacts for airborne infections such as tuberculosis, where transmission can occur between anybody 'sharing air' indoors. Directly collecting data on age-mixing patterns between casual contacts (shared indoor space, but not 'close') is difficult however. We demonstrate a method for indirectly estimating age-mixing patterns between casual indoor contacts from social contact data. METHODS: We estimated age-mixing patterns between close, casual, and all contacts using data from a social contact survey in South Africa. The age distribution of casual contacts in different types of location was estimated from the reported time spent in the location type by respondents in each age group. RESULTS: Patterns of age-mixing calculated from contact numbers were similar between close and all contacts, however patterns of age-mixing calculated from contact time were more age-assortative in all contacts than in close contacts. There was also more variation by age group in total numbers of casual and all contacts, than in total numbers of close contacts. Estimates were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of age-mixing can be estimated for all contacts using data that can be easily collected as part of social contact surveys or time-use surveys, and may differ from patterns between close contacts.

Factors affecting template switch recombination associated with restarted DNA replication.

Homologous recombination helps ensure the timely completion of genome duplication by restarting collapsed replication forks. However, this beneficial function is not without risk as replication restarted by homologous recombination is prone to template switching (TS) that can generate deleterious genome rearrangements associated with diseases such as cancer. Previously we established an assay for studying TS in Schizosaccharomyces pombe (Nguyen et al., 2015). Here, we show that TS is detected up to 75 kb downstream of a collapsed replication fork and can be triggered by head-on collision between the restarted fork and RNA Polymerase III transcription. The Pif1 DNA helicase, Pfh1, promotes efficient restart and also suppresses TS. A further three conserved helicases (Fbh1, Rqh1 and Srs2) strongly suppress TS, but there is no change in TS frequency in cells lacking Fml1 or Mus81. We discuss how these factors likely influence TS.

Tuberculosis transmission in public locations in Tanzania: A novel approach to studying airborne disease transmission.

OBJECTIVES: For tuberculosis (TB) transmission to occur, an uninfected individual must inhale the previously infected breath. Our objective was to identify potential TB transmission hotspots in metropolitan city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and to model the annual risk of TB transmission in different locations of public importance. METHODS: We collected indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) data from markets, prisons, night clubs, public transportation, religious and social halls, and from schools. Study volunteers recorded social contacts at each of the locations. We then estimated the annual risks of TB transmission using a modified Wells-Riley equation for different locations. RESULTS: The annual risks of TB transmission were highest among prison inmates (41.6%) and drivers (20.3%) in public transport. Lower transmission risks were found in central markets (4.8% for traders, but 0.5% for their customers), passengers on public transport (2.4%), public schools (4.0%), nightclubs (1.7%), religious (0.13%), and social halls (0.12%). CONCLUSION: For the first time in a country representative of sub-Saharan Africa, we modelled the risk of TB transmission in important public locations by using a novel approach of studying airborne transmission. This approach can guide identification of TB transmission hotspots and targeted interventions to reach WHO's ambitious End TB targets.

Inter-Fork Strand Annealing causes genomic deletions during the termination of DNA replication.

Problems that arise during DNA replication can drive genomic alterations that are instrumental in the development of cancers and many human genetic disorders. Replication fork barriers are a commonly encountered problem, which can cause fork collapse and act as hotspots for replication termination. Collapsed forks can be rescued by homologous recombination, which restarts replication. However, replication restart is relatively slow and, therefore, replication termination may frequently occur by an active fork converging on a collapsed fork. We find that this type of non-canonical fork convergence in fission yeast is prone to trigger deletions between repetitive DNA sequences via a mechanism we call Inter-Fork Strand Annealing (IFSA) that depends on the recombination proteins Rad52, Exo1 and Mus81, and is countered by the FANCM-related DNA helicase Fml1. Based on our findings, we propose that IFSA is a potential threat to genomic stability in eukaryotes.

Mapping sites of high TB transmission risk: Integrating the shared air and social behaviour of TB cases and adolescents in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health problem in poverty-stricken areas of the world. Communal gathering places account for the majority of TB transmission in high burden settings. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the social behaviour patterns of individuals who have developed TB disease and adolescents at risk of infection. To develop a cheap and effective method to locate transmission hot spots in high burden communities. DESIGN: Portable, combined CO2/GIS monitors and location diaries were given to individuals from a South African township. The three groups: newly diagnosed TB patients, recently treated TB patients and adolescents recorded their activities over a median of two days. Rebreathed air volumes (RAVs) at all GIS locations were calculated from CO2 levels using the Rudnick-Milton variant of the Wells-Riley TB transmission model. Hot spot analysis was performed to determine the communal buildings which correspond to spatially clustered high RAVs. RESULTS: Analysis of diaries found that the adolescent group spent greater time in congregate settings compared with the other two groups driven by time spent in school/work (new TB: 1%, recent TB: 8%, and adolescents: 23%). Adolescents also changed their location more frequently (9.0, 6.0, 14.3 changes per day; p<0.001). The RAVs reflected this divergence between the groups (44, 40, 127l; p<0.001). Communal buildings associated with high RAVs were found to be a clinic, two schools and a library. Hot spot analysis revealed the most intense clustering of high RAVs at a community school. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates a new methodology to uncover TB transmission hot spots using a technique that avoids the need to pre-select locations. Investigation of a South African township highlighted the high risk potential of schools and high risk social behaviour of adolescents. Consequently the targeting of transmission reduction strategies to schools may prove highly efficacious in high burden settings.

Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli in bio-aerosols from untreated TB patients.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is predominantly an airborne disease. However, quantitative and qualitative analysis of bio-aerosols containing the aetiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), has proven very challenging. Our objective is to sample bio-aerosols from newly diagnosed TB patients for detection and enumeration of Mtb bacilli. Methods: We monitored each of 35 newly diagnosed, GeneXpert sputum-positive, TB patients during 1 hour confinement in a custom-built Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC). The RASC (a small clean-room of 1.4m ) incorporates aerodynamic particle size detection, viable and non-viable sampling devices, real-time CO 2 monitoring, and cough sound-recording. Microbiological culture and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) were used to detect Mtb in each of the bio-aerosol collection devices. Results:  Mtb was detected in 27/35 (77.1%) of aerosol samples; 15/35 (42.8%) samples were positive by mycobacterial culture and 25/27 (92.96%) were positive by ddPCR. Culturability of collected bacilli was not predicted by radiographic evidence of pulmonary cavitation, sputum smear positivity. A correlation was found between cough rate and culturable bioaerosol.  Mtb was detected on all viable cascade impactor stages with a peak at aerosol sizes 2.0-3.5µm. This suggests a median of 0.09 CFU/litre of exhaled air (IQR: 0.07 to 0.3 CFU/l) for the aerosol culture positives and an estimated median concentration of 4.5x10 CFU/ml (IQR: 2.9x10 -5.6x10 ) of exhaled particulate bio-aerosol. Conclusions:  Mtb was identified in bio-aerosols exhaled by the majority of untreated TB patients using the RASC. Molecular detection was more sensitive than mycobacterial culture on solid media, suggesting that further studies are required to determine whether this reflects a significant proportion of differentially detectable bacilli in these samples.

An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development and evaluation of new global and local computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype.

OBJECTIVES: Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here, we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare the potential utility of global and local models as a treatment tool for South Africa. METHODS: Global random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to therapy following virological failure using 29 574 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype, 3179 of which were from South Africa and were used to develop local models. In addition, 15 130 TCEs including genotypes were used to develop another set of models. The 'no-genotype' models were tested with an independent global test set (n = 1700) plus a subset from South Africa (n = 222). The genotype models were tested with 750 independent cases. RESULTS: The global no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.79 with the global and South African tests sets, respectively, and the South African models achieved AUCs of 0.70 and 0.79. The genotype models achieved an AUC of 0.84. The global no-genotype models identified more alternative, locally available regimens that were predicted to be effective for cases that failed their new regimen in the South African clinics than the local models. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate predictors of outcomes than genotyping with rules-based interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype, out-performed the local South African models and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Forced removals embodied as tuberculosis.

South Africa has one of the worst tuberculosis burdens in the world. Several ecological forces have contributed to this, including high HIV prevalence; failing TB control strategies; crowded, poorly ventilated indoor environments-including the complex web of political and economic interests which produce them; the development of racial capitalism; and mining and migration. In the following study, we measure CO2 levels in public transport to investigate the role extended commutes from peri-urban settlements to urban sites of work-a direct result of forced removals-potentially play in propagating the TB epidemic in Cape Town, South Africa.