Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration.

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s-1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.

Variety in responses of wintering oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus to near-collapse of their prey in the Exe Estuary, UK.

Globally, habitat loss or degradation is a major threat to many species, and those with specific habitat requirements are particularly vulnerable. Many species of wading birds (Charadrii) are dependent upon intertidal sites to feed, but, as a result of anthropogenic pressures, the prey landscape has changed at many estuaries. Behavioral adaptations may be able to buffer these changes. In this study over multiple seasons, we aimed to investigate the foraging behaviors of wintering Eurasian oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary where mussel beds, the preferred prey at this site, have almost disappeared in the last decade. From 2018 to 2021, GPS tracking devices were deployed on 24 oystercatchers, and the foraging locations of adults, sub-adults, and juveniles were determined. Of the 12 birds tracked over multiple winter periods, 10 used the same foraging home ranges but a juvenile and sub-adult changed locations interannually. The dominant prey species at key foraging sites were assessed, and we found that younger birds were more likely to visit sites with lower quality prey, likely due to being at a competitive disadvantage, and also to explore sites further away. Individuals were generally consistent in the areas of the estuary used in early and late winter, and over 90% of locations were recorded in the protected area boundary, which covers the sand and mudflats of the Exe. These findings suggest high specificity of the current protected area for oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary, although, if the prey landscape continues to decline, younger individuals may provide the potential for adaptation by finding and foraging at additional sites. Continued monitoring of individual behavior within populations that are facing dramatic changes to their prey is essential to understand how they may adapt and to develop suitable management plans to conserve threatened species.

Pollinator size and its consequences: Robust estimates of body size in pollinating insects.

Body size is an integral functional trait that underlies pollination-related ecological processes, yet it is often impractical to measure directly. Allometric scaling laws have been used to overcome this problem. However, most existing models rely upon small sample sizes, geographically restricted sampling and have limited applicability for non-bee taxa. Allometric models that consider biogeography, phylogenetic relatedness, and intraspecific variation are urgently required to ensure greater accuracy. We measured body size as dry weight and intertegular distance (ITD) of 391 bee species (4,035 specimens) and 103 hoverfly species (399 specimens) across four biogeographic regions: Australia, Europe, North America, and South America. We updated existing models within a Bayesian mixed-model framework to test the power of ITD to predict interspecific variation in pollinator dry weight in interaction with different co-variates: phylogeny or taxonomy, sexual dimorphism, and biogeographic region. In addition, we used ordinary least squares regression to assess intraspecific dry weight ~ ITD relationships for ten bees and five hoverfly species. Including co-variates led to more robust interspecific body size predictions for both bees and hoverflies relative to models with the ITD alone. In contrast, at the intraspecific level, our results demonstrate that the ITD is an inconsistent predictor of body size for bees and hoverflies. The use of allometric scaling laws to estimate body size is more suitable for interspecific comparative analyses than assessing intraspecific variation. Collectively, these models form the basis of the dynamic R package, "pollimetry," which provides a comprehensive resource for allometric pollination research worldwide.