Hospital admissions from alcohol-related acute pancreatitis during the COVID-19 pandemic: A single-centre study.

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom government introduced lockdown restrictions for the first time on 23 March 2020 due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These were partially lifted on 15 June and further eased on 4 July. Changes in social behaviour, including increased alcohol consumption were described at the time. However, there were no data available to consider the impact of these changes on the number of alcohol-related disease admissions, specifically alcohol-related acute pancreatitis (AP). This study evaluated the trend of alcohol-related AP admissions at a single centre during the initial COVID-19 lockdown. AIM: To evaluate the trend in alcohol-related AP admissions at a single centre during the initial COVID-19 lockdown in the United Kingdom. METHODS: All patients admitted with alcohol-related AP from March to September 2016 to 2020 were considered in this study. Patient demographics, their initial presentation with AP, any recurrent admissions, disease severity and length of stay, were evaluated using ANOVA and χ 2 and Kruskal-Wallis tests. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-six patients were included in the study. The highest total number of AP admissions was seen in March-September 2019 and the highest single-month period was in March-May 2020. Admissions for first-time presentations of AP were highest in 2020 compared to other year groups and were significantly higher compared to previous years, for example, 2016 (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the rate of admissions decreased by 38.89% between March-May 2020 and June-September 2020 (P < 0.05), coinciding with the easing of lockdown restrictions. This significant decrease was not observed in the previous year groups during those same time periods. Admissions for recurrent AP were highest in 2019. The median length of hospital stay did not differ between patients from each of the year groups. CONCLUSION: An increased number of admissions for alcohol-related AP were observed during months when lockdown restrictions were enforced; a fall in figures was noted when restrictions were eased.

An incremental explanation of inference in Bayesian networks for increasing model trustworthiness and supporting clinical decision making.

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to 'hybrid' BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted.

Bayesian Scoring Systems for Military Pelvic and Perineal Blast Injuries: Is it Time to Take a New Approach?

BACKGROUND: Various injury severity scores exist for trauma; it is known that they do not correlate accurately to military injuries. A promising anatomical scoring system for blast pelvic and perineal injury led to the development of an improved scoring system using machine-learning techniques. METHODS: An unbiased genetic algorithm selected optimal anatomical and physiological parameters from 118 military cases. A Naïve Bayesian model was built using the proposed parameters to predict the probability of survival. Ten-fold cross validation was employed to evaluate its performance. RESULTS: Our model significantly out-performed Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma ISS, New ISS, and the Revised Trauma Score in virtually all areas; positive predictive value 0.8941, specificity 0.9027, accuracy 0.9056, and area under curve 0.9059. A two-sample t test showed that the predictive performance of the proposed scoring system was significantly better than the other systems (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: With limited resources and the simplest of Bayesian methodologies, we have demonstrated that the Naïve Bayesian model performed significantly better in virtually all areas assessed by current scoring systems used for trauma. This is encouraging and highlights that more can be done to improve trauma systems not only for our military injured, but also for civilian trauma victims.

What Is the Optimal Device Length and Insertion Site for Needle Thoracostomy in UK Military Casualties? A Computed Tomography Study.

Significant lessons to inform best practice in trauma care should be learned from the last decade of conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq. This study used radiological data collated in the UK Military Hospital in Camp Bastion, Afghanistan, to investigate the most appropriate device length for needle chest decompression of tension pneumothorax (TP). We reviewed the optimal length of device and site needed for needle decompression of a tension pneumothorax in a UK military population and found no significant difference between sites for needle chest decompression (NCD). As a result, we do not recommend use of devices longer than 60mm for UK service personnel.

Developing a cumulative anatomic scoring system for military perineal and pelvic blast injuries.

BACKGROUND: Improvised explosive device (IED) yields in Afghanistan have increased resulting in more proximal injuries. The injury severity score (ISS) is an anatomic aggregate score of the three most severely injured anatomical areas but does not accurately predict severity in IED related pelvi-perineal trauma patients. A scoring system based on abbreviated injury score (AIS) was developed to reflect the severity of these injuries in order to better understand risk factors, develop a tool for future audit and improve performance. METHOD: Using standard AIS descriptors, injury scales were constructed for the pelvis (1, minor to 6, maximal). The perineum was divided into anterior and posterior zones as relevant to injury patterns and blast direction with each soft tissue structure being allocated a score from its own severity scale. A cumulative score, from 1 to 36 for soft tissue, or a maximum of 42 if a pelvic fracture was involved, was created for all structures injured in the anterior and posterior zones. RESULTS: Using this new scoring system, 77% of patients survived with a pelvi-perineal trauma score (PPTS) below 5. There was a significant increase in mortality, number of pelvic fractures and amputations with increase in score when comparing the first group (score 1-5) to the second group (score 6-10). For scores between 6 and 16 survival was 42% and 22% for scores between 17 and 21. In our cohort of 62 survivors, 1 patient with an IED related pelvi-perineal injury had a 'theoretically un-survivable' maximal ISS of 75 and survived, whereas there were no survivors with a PPTS greater than 22 but this group had no-one with an ISS of 75 suggesting ISS is not an accurate reflection of the true severity of pelvi-perineal blast injury. CONCLUSIONS: This scoring system is the initial part of a more complex logistic regression model that will contribute towards a unique trauma scoring system to aid surgical teams in predicting fluid requirements and operative timelines. In austere environments, it may also help to prevent futile resuscitations. Better correlation between measurement of severity and outcome would aid performance improvement monitoring. In the longer term it will also allow benchmarking of current survival rates and comparisons in the future.

Military treatment of splenic injury in the era of non-operative management.

OBJECTIVES: Management of blunt splenic injury (BSI) in battlefield casualties is controversial. Splenectomy is the traditional treatment, as setting the conditions for selective non-operative management (SNOM) is difficult in the operational environment. On mature operations, it may be feasible to adopt a more conservative approach and manage the patient according to civilian protocols. The aim of this study was to document the contemporary practice of deployed military surgeons when dealing with BSI and to compare this against a matched cohort of civilian BSI patients. METHOD: The Joint Theatre Trauma Registry held at the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine, Birmingham, was thoroughly examined to yield patients with BSI. The study encompassed a 55-month period ending September 2009. Data abstracted included patient demographics, injury epidemiology, grade of splenic injury, treatment and outcome. These data were compared with a registry database from a UK civilian major trauma centre. RESULT: Of 1516 military trauma patients, 16 (1%) had a splenic injury, of which five were excluded either because of fatalities due to overwhelming injury or penetrating trauma. The remaining 11 had a blunt component. Median (IQR) injury severity score (ISS) was 17 (15-21). Nine underwent a splenectomy with median (IQR) ISS of 17 (12-18). Of this group, organ injury grades were documented in 10 patients (four Grade V injuries, three Grade IV and three Grade II). All patients survived surgery. There were no complications in survivors as a result of splenic conservation in the military group. Data from the civilian major trauma centre database showed 160 (2%) patients sustained a splenic injury, of which 131 (82%) had a blunt mechanism, 43/160 (27%) and 9/160 (6%) patients underwent splenectomy and angio-embolisation, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with BSI, an uncommon finding in combat casualties, are occasionally selected for conservative management, contrary to previous military surgical paradigms but in keeping with the civilian shift to SNOM. Guidelines to clarify the place of SNOM are required to assist surgical decision making on deployed operations.

Improvised explosive device related pelvi-perineal trauma: anatomic injuries and surgical management.

BACKGROUND: Pelviperineal injuries, primarily due to blast mechanisms, are becoming the signature injury pattern on operations in Afghanistan. This study set out to define these injuries and to refine our team-based surgical resuscitation strategies to provide a resuscitation-debridement-diversion didactic on our Military Operational Surgical Training predeployment course to optimize our field care of these injuries. METHODS: A retrospective study of the UK Joint Theatre Trauma Registry was performed looking at consecutive data from January 2003 to December 2010, identifying patients with perineal injuries. Data abstracted included patient demographics, mechanism of injury, Injury Severity Score (ISS), management, and outcomes. RESULTS: Of 2204 UK military trauma patients, 118 (5.4%) had a recorded perineal injury and 56 (47%) died . Pelvic fractures were identified in 63 (53%) of 118 patients of which only 17 (27%) of 63 survived. Mortality rates were significantly different between the combined perineal and pelvic fracture group compared with the pelvic fractures or perineal injuries alone (107 [41%] of 261 and 11 [18%] of 56, respectively, p < 0.001). The median (interquartile range) ISS for all patients was 38 (29-57). The ISS for those with pelvic fractures were significantly higher than those with perineal injuries alone, 50 (38-71) versus 30 (15-35) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Improvised explosive device-related perineal injuries with pelvic fractures had the highest rate of mortality compared with perineal injuries alone. Early aggressive resuscitation (activation of the massive hemorrhage protocol) is essential to survival in this cohort. Our recommendations are uncompromising initial debridement, immediate fecal diversion, and early enteral feeding.