Registry Cohort Study to Determine Risk for Multiple Sclerosis after Vaccination for Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) with Arepanrix, Manitoba, Canada.

To investigate a potential risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) after vaccination with Arepanrix, the GlaxoSmithKline AS03-adjuvanted influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine, we used the provincewide immunization registry for Manitoba, Canada, to match 341,347 persons vaccinated during the 2009 pandemic to 485,941 unvaccinated persons on age, sex, address, and a propensity score measuring the probability of vaccination. We used a previously validated algorithm to identify MS cases from provincial hospital, physician, and prescription drug claims databases. After 12 months of follow-up, the age-adjusted incidence rate of MS was 17.7 cases per 100,000 person-years in the Arepanrix cohort and 24.2 per 100,000 in the unvaccinated cohort. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratio was 0.9. We observed similar patterns when we measured incidence over the entire follow-up period. The AS03 adjuvant, a candidate for inclusion in future pandemic vaccines, does not appear to increase the short-term risk for MS when included in influenza vaccines.

Long-term trends in invasive pneumococcal disease in Manitoba, Canada.

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) remains a significant public health problem in Manitoba, Canada although publically-funded pneumococcal conjugate (PCV7 and PCV13) and polysaccharide (PPV23) vaccination programs exist. We analyzed routine surveillance and administrative health data to examine trends in IPD rates as these vaccines were introduced. Data on all individuals with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of IPD between 2001 and 2014 were obtained from the provincial Communicable Diseases Surveillance database and linked with Manitoba's provincial immunization registry and physician and hospital databases. We calculated IPD incidence rates overall, by serotype and for different population subgroups defined by socio-demographic and clinical (e.g., chronic diseases, immune status) characteristics. Annual IPD incidence (95%CI) was 8.6 (8.2-9.1)/100,000 people during the study period (n = 1092), and rates were higher in recent years and in regions with predominately indigenous populations. Reduction in the incidence of serotypes included in PCV7 have been offset by rising rates of PCV13-only serotypes in children, and more recently by rising rates of PPV-only serotypes and non-vaccine serotypes among young children and older adults (≥ 65 years). Rates were 3 times higher in those with a chronic disease and highest (> 175-fold) among alcoholics, organ-transplant, and chronic kidney failure patients. The case fatality rate was 12.0% within 30 d of diagnosis. Despite the introduction of several vaccination programs, overall rates of IPD have not declined in Manitoba in the last decade, due to increase in incidence of non-PCV7 serotypes. A disproportionately high burden of disease impacts indigenous communities and people with chronic disease.

Pandemic H1N1 Vaccination and Incidence of Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis in Manitoba.

BACKGROUND: An increased incidence of hospital admissions coded as acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) was noted in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, during the second wave of the influenza pandemic from October 2009 to March 2010. However, it was not clear whether this was due to heightened awareness of potential neurological complications of influenza or influenza vaccination or an actual increase in the number of cases. METHODS: We extracted data from the charts of 139 patients hospitalized with an International Classification of Diseases-10 discharge code indicating ADEM (G04.0) or unspecified noninfectious encephalitis or myelitis (G04.8, G04.9) between January 2006 and December 2012. Clinical and laboratory data were reviewed by a neurologist, and diagnoses were determined using the Brighton criteria. RESULTS: Over the entire study period, there were 22 cases of ADEM. During the peak pandemic period (April-December 2009), seven patients were hospitalized with ADEM, corresponding to a rate of 7.8/million/year; 4.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.9-11.4) times higher than the rate before or after the pandemic period. Only one patient with ADEM had received the monovalent A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine within 12 weeks of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: We have found an increased incidence of ADEM during the pandemic period that may be related, at least in part, to the increased incidence of influenza during that period. However, there was no temporal relationship with the administration of A(H1N1)pdm09 or seasonal influenza vaccines. Our study provides reassurance that use of these vaccines was not associated with increased risk of ADEM.

Age distribution of infection and hospitalization among Canadian First Nations populations during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated age-standardized ratios of infection and hospitalization among Canadian First Nations (FN) populations and compared their distributions with those estimated for non-FN populations in Manitoba, Canada. METHODS: For the spring and fall 2009 waves of the H1N1 pandemic, we obtained daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed and hospitalized cases of H1N1 infection, stratified by 5-year age groups and FN status. We calculated age-standardized ratios with confidence intervals for each wave and compared ratios between age groups in each ethnic group and between the 2 waves for FN and non-FN populations. RESULTS: Incidence and hospitalization ratios in all FN age groups during the first wave were significantly higher than those in non-FN age groups (P < .001). The highest ratios were observed in FN young children aged 0 to 4 years. During the second wave, these ratios tended to decrease in FN populations and increase in non-FN populations, especially among groups younger than 30 years. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and hospitalization ratios in FN populations were higher than or equivalent to ratios in non-FN populations. Our findings support the need to develop targeted prevention and control strategies specifically for vulnerable FN and remote communities.

Transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in remote and isolated Canadian communities: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: During the first wave of the 2009 influenza pH1N1, disease burden was distributed in a geographically heterogeneous fashion. It was particularly high in some remote and isolated Canadian communities when compared with urban centres. We sought to estimate the transmissibility (the basic reproduction number) of pH1N1 strain in some remote and isolated Canadian communities. DESIGN: A discrete time susceptible-exposed-infected transmission model was fit to infection curves simulated from laboratory-confirmed case counts for pH1N1 on each day. The sampling from Poisson distribution was used to estimate the basic reproduction number, R(0), of pH1N1 during the spring wave for five different communities in Manitoba and Nunavut, Canada, where remote and isolated communities experienced a high incidence of infection, and high rates of hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission. SETTING: Remote and isolated communities in Northern Manitoba, Nunavut, and the largest urban centre (Winnipeg) in the province of Manitoba, Canada. RESULTS: Using published values of the exposed and infectious periods specific to H1N1 infection, corresponding to the average generation time of 2.78 days, we estimated a mean value of 2.26 for R(0) (95% CI 1.57 to 3.75) in a community located in northern Manitoba. Estimates of R(0) for other communities in Nunavut varied considerably with higher mean values of 3.91 (95% CI 3.08 to 4.87); 2.03 (95% CI 1.50 to 3.19); and 2.45 (95% CI 1.68 to 3.44). We estimated a lower mean value of 1.57 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.87) for R(0) in the Winnipeg health region, as the largest urban centre in Manitoba. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza pH1N1 appears to have been far more transmissible in rural and isolated Canadian communities than other large urban areas. The differential severity of the pandemic in these regions may be explained partly by differential transmissibility, and suggests the need for more nuanced, targeted or population-specific control strategies in Canada.

Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and severity of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic appeared to vary significantly across populations and geographic regions. We sought to investigate the variability in transmissibility of H1N1 pandemic in different health regions (including urban centres and remote, isolated communities) in the province of Manitoba, Canada. METHODS: The Richards model was used to fit to the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases and estimate transmissibility (referred to as the basic reproduction number, R0), doubling times, and turning points of outbreaks in both spring and fall waves of the H1N1 pandemic in several health regions. RESULTS: We observed considerable variation in R0 estimates ranging from 1.55 to 2.24, with confidence intervals ranging from 1.45 to 2.88, for an average generation time of 2.9 days, and shorter doubling times in some remote and isolated communities compared to urban centres, suggesting a more rapid spread of disease in these communities during the first wave. For the second wave, Re, the effective reproduction number, is estimated to be lower for remote and isolated communities; however, outbreaks appear to have been driven by somewhat higher transmissibility in urban centres. CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable geographic variation in transmissibility of the 2009 pandemic outbreaks. While highlighting the importance of estimating R0 for informing health responses, the findings indicate that projecting the transmissibility for large-scale epidemics may not faithfully characterize the early spread of disease in remote and isolated communities.