Model Evaluation of Continuous Data Pharmacometric Models: Metrics and Graphics.

This article represents the first in a series of tutorials on model evaluation in nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEMs), from the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP) Model Evaluation Group. Numerous tools are available for evaluation of NLMEM, with a particular emphasis on visual assessment. This first basic tutorial focuses on presenting graphical evaluation tools of NLMEM for continuous data. It illustrates graphs for correct or misspecified models, discusses their pros and cons, and recalls the definition of metrics used.

The effect of plasmapheresis on blood pressure in voluntary plasma donors.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Donor plasmapheresis involves the removal of a weight-adjusted volume of plasma and the return of cellular components to the donor. Although plasma volume generally returns to normal, some residual effect on vital signs may be possible. This analysis was performed to determine the possible effects of plasmapheresis on blood pressure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 16-week study was conducted to evaluate the effects of plasma donations on cholesterol levels in healthy donors. From this study, the vital signs obtained prior to donation were analysed using statistical and dynamic analytical predictive models. RESULTS: Preliminary analyses revealed a change in systolic and diastolic blood pressure from the corresponding baseline values (Pearson Coefficient -0.44 and -0.47, respectively). Statistical models predicted a marked decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure following multiple donations in donors with baseline pressure in the Stage 2 hypertension range with less pronounced decreases predicted in Stage 1 donors. Little or no change in blood pressure was predicted in donors with baseline normal blood pressure or prehypertension. Dynamic models including time between donations supported these results and predicted a recovery period of about 14 days without donation in donors with Stage 2 baseline levels. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that systolic and diastolic blood pressure may be decreased following plasmapheresis used for plasma donations at intervals of <14 days in donors with high baseline blood pressure levels.

Clinical trial simulations in pediatric patients using realistic covariates: application to teduglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-2 analog in neonates and infants with short-bowel syndrome.

Teduglutide, a synthetic glucagon-like peptide-2 (GLP-2) analog with activity relating to the regeneration, maintenance, and repair of the intestinal epithelium, is currently being evaluated for the treatment of short-bowel syndrome (SBS), Crohn's disease, and other gastrointestinal disorders. On the basis of promising results from teduglutide studies in adults with SBS and from studies in neonatal and juvenile animal models, a pediatric multiple-dose phase I clinical study was designed to determine the safety, efficacy, and pharmacokinetics of teduglutide in pediatric patients with SBS who have undergone resection for necrotizing enterocolitis, malrotation, or intestinal atresia. This report details the application of clinical trial simulations coupled with a novel approach using generalized additive modeling for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) that facilitates the simulation of demographic covariates specific to the targeted patient populations. The goal was to optimize phase I dosing strategies and the likelihood of achieving target exposure and therapeutic effect.