The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen remarkable population growth over the last century, outpacing other global regions and resulting in an over-reliance on food imports. In consequence, it has become heavily dependent on grain imports, making it vulnerable to trade disruptions (e.g., due to the Russia-Ukraine War). Here, we quantify the importance of imported grains for dietary protein and energy, and determine the level of import reductions at which countries are threatened with severe hunger. Utilizing statistics provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we employed a stepwise calculation process to quantify the allocation of both locally produced and imported grains between the food and feed sectors. These calculations also enabled us to establish a connection between feed demand and production levels. Our analysis reveals that, across the MENA region, 40% of total dietary energy (1,261 kcal/capita/day) and 63% of protein (55 g/capita/day) is derived from imported grains, and could thus be jeopardized by trade disruptions. This includes 164 kcal/capita/day of energy and 11 g/capita/day of protein imported from Russia and Ukraine. If imports from these countries ceased completely, the region would thus face a severe challenge to adequately feed its population. This study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and ensure a stable food and feed supply in the MENA region.

Soil moisture and its role in growth-climate relationships across an aridity gradient in semiarid Pinus halepensis forests.

In Mediterranean areas with limited availability of water, an accurate knowledge of growth response to hydrological variables could contribute to improving management and stability of forest resources. The main goal of this study is to assess the temporal dynamic of soil moisture to better understand the water-growth relationship of Pinus halepensis forests in semiarid areas. The estimates of modelled soil moisture and measured tree growth were used at four sites dominated by afforested Pinus halepensis Mill. in south-eastern Spain with 300 to 609mm mean annual precipitation. Firstly, dendrochronological samples were extracted and the widths of annual tree rings were measured to compute basal area increments (BAI). Secondly, soil moisture was estimated over 20 hydrological years (1992-2012) by means of the HYDROBAL ecohydrological model. Finally, the tree growth was linked, to mean monthly and seasonal temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. Results depict the effect of soil moisture on growth (BAI) and explain 69-73% of the variance in semiarid forests, but only 51% in the subhumid forests. This highlights the fact that that soil moisture is a suitable and promising variable to explain growth variations of afforested Pinus halepensis in semiarid conditions and useful for guiding adaptation plans to respond pro-actively to water-related global challenges.