Cost-effectiveness of intervention combinations towards the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV in limited-resource settings: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, there has been a substantial global reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV. Despite effective interventions, gaps still remain in progress towards elimination in many low-income and middle-income countries. We developed a mathematical model to determine the most cost-effective combinations of interventions to prevent vertical transmission. METHODS: We developed a 12-month Markov model to follow a cohort of women of childbearing age (aged 15-49 years) in Zambia (n=1 107 255) who were either pregnant, in delivery, or breastfeeding; the population included in the model reflects the estimated number of pregnant women in Zambia from the 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. The model incorporated nine interventions: infant prophylaxis; three different HIV retesting schedule options; oral pre-exposure prophylaxis; maternal peer-support groups; regimen shift; tracing of loss to follow-up; and point-of-care viral load testing. We analysed incident HIV infections among mothers and infants, intervention costs, and evaluated 190 scenarios of different combinations of inventions to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over 1 year. FINDINGS: Three interventions with the greatest reduction in vertical transmission, individually, were support groups for 80% of those in need (35% reduction in infant infections), HIV retesting schedules (6·5% reduction), and infant prophylaxis (4·5% reduction). Of all 190 scenarios evaluated, eight were on the cost-effectiveness frontier (ie, were considered to be cost-effective); all eight included increasing infant prophylaxis, regimen shift, and use of support groups. Excluding the highest-cost scenarios, for a 1-22% increase in total budget, 23-43% of infant infections could be prevented, producing ICERs between US$244 and $16 242. INTERPRETATION: Using the interventions modelled, it is possible to reduce vertical transmission and to cost-effectively prevent up to 1734 infant HIV infections (43% reduction) in Zambia over a period of 1 year. To optimise their effect, these interventions must be scaled with fidelity. Future work is needed to incorporate evidence on additional innovative interventions and HIV risk factors, and to apply the model to other country contexts to support targeted implementation and resource use. FUNDING: The ELMA Foundation.

A Model for Accelerating Access to Care and Treatment for Children and Adolescents Living with HIV in Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia: The Faith-Based Action for Scaling-Up Testing and Treatment for the Epidemic Response (FASTER) Initiative.

The number of children newly infected with HIV dropped by 50%, from 320 000 in 2010 to 160 000 in 2021. Despite progress, ongoing gaps persist in diagnosis, continuity of care, and treatment optimization. In response, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief created the Faith-based Action for Scaling-Up Testing and Treatment for Epidemic Response (FASTER). Faith-based Action for Scaling-Up Testing and Treatment for Epidemic Response addressed gaps in countries with the highest unmet need by working with government to operationalize innovative interventions and ensure alignment with national priorities and with communities living with HIV to ensure the change was community-led. Between 2019 and 2021, FASTER's interventions were incorporated into national policies, absorbed by Ministries of Health, and taken up in subsequent awards and country operating plans. Continued effort is needed to sustain gains made during the FASTER initiative and to continue scaling evidence-based interventions to ensure that children and adolescents are not left behind in the global HIV response.

Optimizing and validating a pediatric screening tool to more efficiently test and identify children living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a screening tool to improve testing efficiency and increase case finding of children living with HIV. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Between November 2020 and September 2021, children 18 months to 14 years presenting at outpatient departments in 30 health facilities in Zambia were administered a 14-question pediatric HIV screening tool and then tested for HIV. Data were analyzed using a randomly extracted 'validation' dataset and multivariable logistic regression to determine the highest performing and optimal number of screening questions. The final tool was then evaluated in the 'test' dataset. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for both datasets. The final tool was then also implemented in 12 additional facilities to determine operational feasibility and uptake. RESULTS: A total of 9902 children were included in the final analysis. HIV prevalence was 1.3%. Six questions were significantly associated with HIV-positivity. The optimal screening cutoff score was to answer 'yes' to one or more of the six questions; using this cutoff sensitivity was 92.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 85.7-96.7%] and specificity was 62.9% (95% CI 61.9-64%). In the test dataset, the same tool had a sensitivity of 84.6% (95% CI 65.1-95.6%) and specificity of 64.6% (95% CI 62.4-66.7%). Uptake was 89%. CONCLUSION: The results of this study show sensitivity and acceptable specificity in a six-question validated HIV screening tool. Implementing this screening tool in settings where universal testing is not feasible should more efficiently accelerate identification of children living with HIV (CLHIV) and their timely initiation onto life-saving drugs.

Quality improvement intervention to increase adherence to ART prescription policy at HIV treatment clinics in Lusaka, Zambia: A cluster randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: In urban areas, crowded HIV treatment facilities with long patient wait times can deter patients from attending their clinical appointments and picking up their medications, ultimately disrupting patient care and compromising patient retention and adherence. METHODS: Formative research at eight facilities in Lusaka revealed that only 46% of stable HIV treatment patients were receiving a three-month refill supply of antiretroviral drugs, despite it being national policy for stable adult patients. We designed a quality improvement intervention to improve the operationalization of this policy. We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial in sixteen facilities in Lusaka with the primary objective of examining the intervention's impact on the proportion of stable patients receiving three-month refills. The secondary objective was examining whether the quality improvement intervention reduced facility congestion measured through two proxy indicators: daily volume of clinic visits and average clinic wait times for services. RESULTS: The mean change in the proportion of three-month refills among control facilities from baseline to endline was 10% (from 38% to 48%), compared to a 25% mean change (an increase from 44% to 69%) among intervention facilities. This represents a significant 15% mean difference (95% CI: 2%-29%; P = 0.03) in the change in proportion of patients receiving three-month refills. On average, control facilities had 15 more visits per day in the endline than in the baseline, while intervention facilities had 20 fewer visits per day in endline than in baseline, a mean difference of 35 fewer visits per day (P = 0.1). The change in the mean facility total wait time for intervention facilities dropped 19 minutes between baseline and endline when compared to control facilities (95% CI: -10.2-48.5; P = 0.2). CONCLUSION: A more patient-centred service delivery schedule of three-month prescription refills for stable patients is viable. We encourage the expansion of this sustainable intervention in Zambia's urban clinics.

Evaluating Opportunities for Achieving Cost Efficiencies Through the Introduction of PrePex Device Male Circumcision in Adult VMMC Programs in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Results from recent costing studies have put into question potential Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) cost savings with the introduction of the PrePex device. METHODS: We evaluated the cost drivers and the overall unit cost of VMMC for a variety of service delivery models providing either surgical VMMC or both PrePex and surgery using current program data in Zimbabwe and Zambia. In Zimbabwe, 3 hypothetical PrePex only models were also included. For all models, clients aged 18 years and older were assumed to be medically eligible for PrePex and uptake was based on current program data from sites providing both methods. Direct costs included costs for consumables, including surgical VMMC kits for the forceps-guided method, device (US $12), human resources, demand creation, supply chain, waste management, training, and transport. RESULTS: Results for both countries suggest limited potential for PrePex to generate cost savings when adding the device to current surgical service delivery models. However, results for the hypothetical rural Integrated PrePex model in Zimbabwe suggest the potential for material unit cost savings (US $35 per VMMC vs. US $65-69 for existing surgical models). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis illustrates that models designed to leverage PrePex's advantages, namely the potential for integrating services in rural clinics and less stringent infrastructure requirements, may present opportunities for improved cost efficiency and service integration. Countries seeking to scale up VMMC in rural settings might consider integrating PrePex only MC services at the primary health care level to reduce costs while also increasing VMMC access and coverage.

Prices and mark-ups on antimalarials: evidence from nationally representative studies in six malaria-endemic countries.

The private for-profit sector is an important source of treatment for malaria. However, private patients face high prices for the recommended treatment for uncomplicated malaria, artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), which makes them more likely to receive cheaper, less effective non-artemisinin therapies (nATs). This study seeks to better understand consumer antimalarial prices by documenting and exploring the pricing behaviour of retailers and wholesalers. Using data collected in 2009-10, we present survey estimates of antimalarial retail prices, and wholesale- and retail-level price mark-ups from six countries (Benin, Cambodia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Uganda and Zambia), along with qualitative findings on factors affecting pricing decisions. Retail prices were lowest for nATs, followed by ACTs and artemisinin monotherapies (AMTs). Retailers applied the highest percentage mark-ups on nATs (range: 40% in Nigeria to 100% in Cambodia and Zambia), whereas mark-ups on ACTs (range: 22% in Nigeria to 71% in Zambia) and AMTs (range: 22% in Nigeria to 50% in Uganda) were similar in magnitude, but lower than those applied to nATs. Wholesale mark-ups were generally lower than those at retail level, and were similar across antimalarial categories in most countries. When setting prices wholesalers and retailers commonly considered supplier prices, prevailing market prices, product availability, product characteristics and the costs related to transporting goods, staff salaries and maintaining a property. Price discounts were regularly used to encourage sales and were sometimes used by wholesalers to reward long-term customers. Pricing constraints existed only in Benin where wholesaler and retailer mark-ups are regulated; however, unlicensed drug vendors based in open-air markets did not adhere to the pricing regime. These findings indicate that mark-ups on antimalarials are reasonable. Therefore, improving ACT affordability would be most readily achieved by interventions that reduce commodity prices for retailers, such as ACT subsidies, pooled purchasing mechanisms and cost-effective strategies to increase the distribution coverage area of wholesalers.

Understanding private sector antimalarial distribution chains: a cross-sectional mixed methods study in six malaria-endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: Private for-profit outlets are important treatment sources for malaria in most endemic countries. However, these outlets constitute only the last link in a chain of businesses that includes manufacturers, importers and wholesalers, all of which influence the availability, price and quality of antimalarials patients can access. We present evidence on the composition, characteristics and operation of these distribution chains and of the businesses that comprise them in six endemic countries (Benin, Cambodia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Uganda and Zambia). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted nationally representative surveys of antimalarial wholesalers during 2009-2010 using an innovative sampling approach that captured registered and unregistered distribution channels, complemented by in-depth interviews with a range of stakeholders. Antimalarial distribution chains were pyramidal in shape, with antimalarials passing through a maximum of 4-6 steps between manufacturer and retailer; however, most likely pass through 2-3 steps. Less efficacious non-artemisinin therapies (e.g. chloroquine) dominated weekly sales volumes among African wholesalers, while volumes for more efficacious artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) were many times smaller. ACT sales predominated only in Cambodia. In all countries, consumer demand was the principal consideration when selecting products to stock. Selling prices and reputation were key considerations regarding supplier choice. Business practices varied across countries, with large differences in the proportions of wholesalers offering credit and delivery services to customers, and the types of distribution models adopted by businesses. Regulatory compliance also varied across countries, particularly with respect to licensing. The proportion of wholesalers possessing any up-to-date licence from national regulators was lowest in Benin and Nigeria, where vendors in traditional markets are important antimalarial supply sources. CONCLUSIONS: The structure and characteristics of antimalarial distribution chains vary across countries; therefore, understanding the wholesalers that comprise them should inform efforts aiming to improve access to quality treatment through the private sector.

Got ACTs? Availability, price, market share and provider knowledge of anti-malarial medicines in public and private sector outlets in six malaria-endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is the first-line malaria treatment throughout most of the malaria-endemic world. Data on ACT availability, price and market share are needed to provide a firm evidence base from which to assess the current situation concerning quality-assured ACT supply. This paper presents supply side data from ACTwatch outlet surveys in Benin, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Nigeria, Uganda and Zambia. METHODS: Between March 2009 and June 2010, nationally representative surveys of outlets providing anti-malarials to consumers were conducted. A census of all outlets with the potential to provide anti-malarials was conducted in clusters sampled randomly. RESULTS: 28,263 outlets were censused, 51,158 anti-malarials were audited, and 9,118 providers interviewed. The proportion of public health facilities with at least one first-line quality-assured ACT in stock ranged between 43% and 85%. Among private sector outlets stocking at least one anti-malarial, non-artemisinin therapies, such as chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, were widely available (> 95% of outlets) as compared to first-line quality-assured ACT (< 25%). In the public/not-for-profit sector, first-line quality-assured ACT was available for free in all countries except Benin and the DRC (US$1.29 [Inter Quartile Range (IQR): $1.29-$1.29] and $0.52[IQR: $0.00-$1.29] per adult equivalent dose respectively). In the private sector, first-line quality-assured ACT was 5-24 times more expensive than non-artemisinin therapies. The exception was Madagascar where, due to national social marketing of subsidized ACT, the price of first-line quality-assured ACT ($0.14 [IQR: $0.10, $0.57]) was significantly lower than the most popular treatment (chloroquine, $0.36 [IQR: $0.36, $0.36]). Quality-assured ACT accounted for less than 25% of total anti-malarial volumes; private-sector quality-assured ACT volumes represented less than 6% of the total market share. Most anti-malarials were distributed through the private sector, but often comprised non-artemisinin therapies, and in the DRC and Nigeria, oral artemisinin monotherapies. Provider knowledge of the first-line treatment was significantly lower in the private sector than in the public/not-for-profit sector. CONCLUSIONS: These standardized, nationally representative results demonstrate the typically low availability, low market share and high prices of ACT, in the private sector where most anti-malarials are accessed, with some exceptions. The results confirm that there is substantial room to improve availability and affordability of ACT treatment in the surveyed countries. The data will also be useful for monitoring the impact of interventions such as the Affordable Medicines Facility for malaria.

Monitoring fever treatment behaviour and equitable access to effective medicines in the context of initiatives to improve ACT access: baseline results and implications for programming in six African countries.

BACKGROUND: Access to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) remains limited in high malaria-burden countries, and there are concerns that the poorest people are particularly disadvantaged. This paper presents new evidence on household treatment-seeking behaviour in six African countries. These data provide a baseline for monitoring interventions to increase ACT coverage, such as the Affordable Medicines Facility for malaria (AMFm). METHODS: Nationally representative household surveys were conducted in Benin, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Nigeria, Uganda and Zambia between 2008 and 2010. Caregivers responded to questions about management of recent fevers in children under five. Treatment indicators were tabulated across countries, and differences in case management provided by the public versus private sector were examined using chi-square tests. Logistic regression was used to test for association between socioeconomic status and 1) malaria blood testing, and 2) ACT treatment. RESULTS: Fever treatment with an ACT is low in Benin (10%), the DRC (5%), Madagascar (3%) and Nigeria (5%), but higher in Uganda (21%) and Zambia (21%). The wealthiest children are significantly more likely to receive ACT compared to the poorest children in Benin (OR = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.12-6.42); the DRC (OR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.12-4.24); Madagascar (OR = 5.37, 95% CI = 1.58-18.24); and Nigeria (OR = 6.59, 95% CI = 2.73-15.89). Most caregivers seek treatment outside of the home, and private sector outlets are commonly the sole external source of treatment (except in Zambia). However, children treated in the public sector are significantly more likely to receive ACT treatment than those treated in the private sector (except in Madagascar). Nonetheless, levels of testing and ACT treatment in the public sector are low. Few caregivers name the national first-line drug as most effective for treating malaria in Madagascar (2%), the DRC (2%), Nigeria (4%) and Benin (10%). Awareness is higher in Zambia (49%) and Uganda (33%). CONCLUSIONS: Levels of effective fever treatment are low and inequitable in many contexts. The private sector is frequently accessed however case management practices are relatively poor in comparison with the public sector. Supporting interventions to inform caregiver demand for ACT and to improve provider behaviour in both the public and private sectors are needed to achieve maximum gains in the context of improved access to effective treatment.