Child mortality trends and causes of death in South Africa, 1997 - 2012, and the importance of a national burden of disease study.

BACKGROUND: The Rapid Mortality Surveillance System has reported reductions in child mortality rates in recent years in South Africa (SA). In this article, we present information about levels of mortality and causes of death from the second SA National Burden of Disease Study (SA NBD) to inform the response required to reduce child mortality further. OBJECTIVES: To estimate trends in and causes of childhood mortality at national and provincial levels for the period 1997 - 2012, to highlight the importance of the SA NBD. METHODS: Numbers of registered child deaths were adjusted for under-reporting. Adjustments were made for the misclassification of AIDS deaths and the proportion of ill-defined natural causes. Non-natural causes were estimated using results from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System for 2000 and the National Injury Mortality Survey for 2009. Six neonatal conditions and 11 other causes were consolidated from the SA NBD and the Child Health Epidemiological Reference Group lists of causes of death for the analysis. The NBD cause-fractions were compared with those from Statistics South Africa, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). RESULTS: Under-5 mortality per 1 000 live births increased from 65 in 1997 to 79 in 2004 as a result of HIV/AIDS, before dropping to 40 by 2012. The neonatal mortality rate declined from 1997 to 2001, followed by small variations. The death rate from diarrhoeal diseases began to decrease in 2008 and the death rate from pneumonia from 2010. By 2012, neonatal deaths accounted for 27% of child deaths, with conditions associated with prematurity, birth asphyxia and severe infections being the main contributors. In 1997, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Mpumalanga and Eastern Cape provinces had the highest under-5 mortality, close to 80 per 1 000 live births. Mortality rates in North West were in the mid-range and then increased, placing this province in the highest group in the later years. The Western Cape had the lowest mortality rate, declining throughout the period apart from a slight increase in the early 2000s. CONCLUSIONS: The SA NBD identified the causes driving the trends, making it clear that prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, the Expanded Programme on Immunisation and programmes aimed at preventing neonatal deaths need to be equitably implemented throughout the country to address persistent provincial inequalities in child deaths. The rapid reduction of childhood mortality since 2005 suggests that the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal target of 25 per 1 000 for under-5 mortality is achievable for SA. Comparison with alternative estimates highlights the need for cause-of-death data from civil registration to be adjusted using a burden-of-disease approach.

HIV/AIDS mortality trends pre and post ART for 1997 - 2012 in South Africa - have we turned the tide?

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA) has one of the largest HIV/AIDS epidemics in the world and the most extensive antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme globally, which was rolled out from 2004. This paper reports the trends in HIV/AIDS mortality pre and post ART rollout in SA. Methods. Vital registration cause-of-death data from Statistics South Africa were adjusted for under-reporting of deaths using demographic methods. Misattributed HIV/AIDS deaths were identified by regressing excess mortality on a lagged indicator HIV antenatal clinic prevalence for causes found to be associated with HIV/AIDS. Background trends in the source-cause mortality rates were estimated from the trend in cause-specific mortality experienced among 75 - 84-year-olds. Mortality rates were calculated using mid-year population estimates and the World Health Organization world standard age-weights. Results. We estimated over 3 189 000 HIV/AIDS deaths for 1997 - 2012. In 1997, 60 336 (14.5%) of deaths were attributed to HIV/AIDS; this number peaked in 2006 at 283 564 (41.9%) and decreased to 153 661 (29.1%) by 2012; female mortality rates peaked in 2005 and those of males in 2006. Men aged 35 years and older had higher mortality rates than did women. While the rates at ages below 65 years in 2012 were lower than those in 2006, rates of those age 65 years and older remained unchanged. Conclusion. The number of HIV/AIDS deaths has almost halved since the ART rollout. Of concern is the high mortality in men 45 years and older and the high mortality of men compared with women in the older ages by 2012; this gap has increased with age. Treatment and prevention programmes should strategise how to target men.

Poor anticoagulation control in patients taking warfarin at a tertiary and district-level prothrombin clinic in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Warfarin is the most commonly used anticoagulant for both primary and secondary prevention of thromboembolism. For anticoagulation efficacy, the international normalised ratio (INR) needs to be within the therapeutic range for at least 65% of time on warfarin. OBJECTIVES: To describe INR control in patients on long-term warfarin and identified predictors of good INR control at two dedicated warfarin follow-up clinics in Cape Town, South Africa (SA). METHODS: We reviewed clinical records of patients in care at the INR clinics at Mitchell's Plain Community Health Centre and Groote Schuur Hospital. We included patients who had been on warfarin therapy for at least 27 months and excluded patients with <6 months of INR monitoring data or a >70-day gap between INR tests in the calculation period, and if >25% of follow-up time was at an alternative site. The time in therapeutic range (TTR) over 180 days using the Rosendaal method was calculated, and we categorised INR control as good if the TTR was ≥65%. We constructed a multivariate logistic regression model to identify associations with good INR control. RESULTS: We included 363 patients, with a median age of 55 years (interquartile range (IQR) 44 - 64), of whom 65.6% were women. The most common indications for warfarin were valvular heart disease (45.7%) and atrial fibrillation (25.1%). The mean TTR was 47%, with only 91/363 patients having good INR control. In a multivariate model adjusted for age, sex, clinic and target INR, patients aged ≥55 years were more likely to have good INR control than younger patients (adjusted odds ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.03 - 2.79). Poorly controlled patients had more frequent INR monitoring than those with good INR control, with a median of 8 INRs (IQR 6 - 10) v. 6 INRs (IQR 5 - 8) in the 180-day period (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Only 25.1% of patients in our study achieved good INR control, despite regular INR monitoring. There is an urgent need to improve anticoagulation control of patients receiving warfarin in SA. Validated dosing algorithms are required, and access to lower warfarin dosage formulations may optimise individual dose titration. Advocacy for these formulations is advised.

Emerging Trends in Non-Communicable Disease Mortality in South Africa; 1997 - 2010

OBJECTIVES:National trends in age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in South Africa (SA) were identified between 1997 and 2010.METHODS:As part of the second National Burden of Disease Study; vital registration data were used after validity checks; proportional redistribution of missing age; sex and population group; demographic adjustments for registration incompleteness; and identification of misclassified AIDS deaths. Garbage codes were redistributed proportionally to specified codes by age; sex and population group. ASDRs were calculated using mid-year population estimates and the World Health Organization world standard.RESULTS:Of 594 071 deaths in 2010; 38.9% were due to NCDs (42.6% females). ASDRs were 287/100 000 for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); 114/100 000 for cancers (malignant neoplasms); 58/100 000 for chronic respiratory conditions and 52/100 000 for diabetes mellitus. An overall annual decrease of 0.4% was observed resulting from declines in stroke; ischaemic heart disease; oesophageal and lung cancer; asthma and chronic respiratory disease; while increases were observed for diabetes; renal disease; endocrine and nutritional disorders; and breast and prostate cancers. Stroke was the leading NCD cause of death; accounting for 17.5% of total NCD deaths. Compared with those for whites; NCD mortality rates for other population groups were higher at 1.3 for black Africans; 1.4 for Indians and 1.4 for coloureds; but varied by condition.CONCLUSIONS:NCDs contribute to premature mortality in SA; threatening socioeconomic development. While NCD mortality rates have decreased slightly; it is necessary to strengthen prevention and healthcare provision and monitor emerging trends in cause-specific mortality to inform these strategies if the target of 2% annual decline is to be achieved

Tuberculosis case finding for vaccine trials in young children in high-incidence settings: a randomised trial.

SETTING: A high tuberculosis (TB) burden rural area in South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To compare TB case yield and disease profile among bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccinated children using two case-finding strategies from birth until 2 years of age. DESIGN: BCG-vaccinated infants were enrolled within 2 weeks of birth and randomised to 3-monthly home visits for questionnaire-based TB screening plus record surveillance of TB registers, hospital admission and X-ray lists at health facilities for TB suspects and cases (Group 1), or record surveillance (as above) only (Group 2). Both groups received a close-out visit after 2 years. Participants were evaluated for suspected TB disease using standardised investigations. RESULTS: A total of 4786 infants were enrolled: 2392 were randomised to Group 1 and 2394 to Group 2. The case-finding rate was significantly greater in Group 1 (2.2/100 py) than in Group 2 (0.8/100 py), with a case-finding rate ratio of 2.6 (95%CI 1.8-4.0, P < 0.001). Although the proportion of cases with bacteriological confirmation was lower in Group 1, this difference did not reach statistical significance. There was also no significant difference in the proportions with TB symptoms and signs. CONCLUSION: Home visits combined with record surveillance detected significantly more cases than record surveillance with a single study-end visit. The TB case profile did not differ significantly between the two groups.