Projecting the economic burden of health impacts of aircraft noise: a case study of Baltimore Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport.

BACKGROUND: While the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States optimizes flight patterns, it has led to the unintended consequence of increasing aircraft noise exposure in some communities near airports. Despite the evidence that chronic exposure to high noise levels produces detrimental health effects, potential adverse health consequences due to increased noise in the affected communities have not been adequately considered in aviation policy discussions. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the long-term health and associated economic burden of increased aircraft noise caused by NextGen near the Baltimore-Washington Thurgood Marshall International (BWI) airport in Maryland. METHODS: A probabilistic Markov model projected the incremental health and associated economic burden over 30, 20, and 10 years, comparing post-NextGen noise exposure levels to pre-NextGen levels. Health outcomes included cardiovascular disease (CVD), anxiety disorders, noise annoyance, and low birth weight (LBW). Noise exposure was categorized into four levels (<55 dB DNL, 55-60 dB DNL, 60-65 dB DNL, >65 dB DNL). A Monte Carlo simulation with 2000 iterations was run to obtain incremental burden estimates and uncertainty intervals. One-way sensitivity analyses for noise effect parameters were conducted. RESULTS: Increased aircraft noise exposure was estimated to produce (discounted) incremental mortality costs of $362 million, morbidity costs of $336 million, and losses of 15,326 Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) over the next 30 years. Sensitivity analyses revealed the greatest uncertainty for CVD outcomes. IMPACT: NextGen is a system that can increase the operational efficiency of airports by optimizing flight patterns. While operational efficiency is beneficial in many ways, changes in flight patterns and volume can also produce noise pollution, a major public health concern that should be considered in policy decision-making. This study quantifies the long-term health and economic implications of increased aircraft noise exposure following the implementation of NextGen in communities near the Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Our findings underscore the importance of considering public health consequences of noise pollution.

The cost-effectiveness of standalone HEPA filtration units for the prevention of airborne SARS CoV-2 transmission.

OBJECTIVE: Airborne infection from aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 poses an economic challenge for businesses without existing heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The Environmental Protection Agency notes that standalone units may be used in areas without existing HVAC systems, but the cost and effectiveness of standalone units has not been evaluated. STUDY DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis with Monte Carlo simulation and aerosol transmission modeling. METHODS: We built a probabilistic decision-analytic model in a Monte Carlo simulation that examines aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in an indoor space. As a base case study, we built a model that simulated a poorly ventilated indoor 1000 square foot restaurant and the range of Covid-19 prevalence of actively infectious cases (best-case: 0.1%, base-case: 2%, and worst-case: 3%) and vaccination rates (best-case: 90%, base-case: 70%, and worst-case: 0%) in New York City. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of improving ventilation rate to 12 air changes per hour (ACH), the equivalent of hospital-grade filtration systems used in emergency departments. We also provide a customizable online tool that allows the user to change model parameters. RESULTS: All 3 scenarios resulted in a net cost-savings and infections averted. For the base-case scenario, improving ventilation to 12 ACH was associated with 54 [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29-86] aerosol infections averted over 1 year, producing an estimated cost savings of $152,701 (95% CrI: $80,663, $249,501) and 1.35 (95% CrI: 0.72, 2.24) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. CONCLUSIONS: It is cost-effective to improve indoor ventilation in small businesses in older buildings that lack HVAC systems during the pandemic.

Impact of aeroplane noise on mental and physical health: a quasi-experimental analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Historically, departures at New York City's LaGuardia airport flew over a large sports complex within a park. During the US Open tennis games, flights were diverted to fly over a heavily populated foreign-born neighbourhood for roughly 2 weeks out of the year so that the tennis match was not disturbed (the 'TNNIS' departure). In 2012, the use of the TNNIS departure became year-round to better optimise flight patterns around the metropolitan area. METHODS: We exploited exogenously induced spatial and temporal variation in flight patterns to examine difference-in-difference effects of this new exposure to aircraft noise on the health of individual residents in the community relative to individuals residing within a demographically similar community that was not impacted. We used individual-level Medicaid records, focusing on conditions associated with noise: sleep disturbance, psychological stress, mental illness, substance use, and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: We found that increased exposure to aeroplane noise was associated with a significant increase in insomnia across all age groups, but particularly in children ages 5-17 (OR=1.64, 95% CI=1.12 to 2.39). Cardiovascular disease increased significantly both among 18-44-year-old (OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.41 to 1.49) and 45-64-year-old Medicaid recipients (OR=1.15, 95% CI=1.07 to 1.25). Substance use and mental health-related emergency department visits also increased. For ages 5-17,rate ratio (RR) was 4.11 (95% CI=3.28 to 5.16); for ages 18-44, RR was 2.46 (95% CI=2.20 to 2.76); and for ages 45-64, RR was 1.48 (95% CI=1.31 to 1.67). CONCLUSION: We find that increased exposure to aeroplane noise was associated with an increase in diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, substance use/mental health emergencies and insomnia among local residents.

The cost-effectiveness of common strategies for the prevention of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in universities.

BACKGROUND: Most universities that re-open in the United States (US) for in-person instruction have implemented the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) guidelines. The value of additional interventions to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is unclear. We calculated the cost-effectiveness and cases averted of each intervention in combination with implementing the CDC guidelines. METHODS: We built a decision-analytic model to examine the cost-effectiveness of interventions to re-open universities. The interventions included implementing the CDC guidelines alone and in combination with 1) a symptom-checking mobile application, 2) university-provided standardized, high filtration masks, 3) thermal cameras for temperature screening, 4) one-time entry ('gateway') polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, and 5) weekly PCR testing. We also modeled a package of interventions ('package intervention') that combines the CDC guidelines with using the symptom-checking mobile application, standardized masks, gateway PCR testing, and weekly PCR testing. The direct and indirect costs were calculated in 2020 US dollars. We also provided an online interface that allows the user to change model parameters. RESULTS: All interventions averted cases of COVID-19. When the prevalence of actively infectious cases reached 0.1%, providing standardized, high filtration masks saved money and improved health relative to implementing the CDC guidelines alone and in combination with using the symptom-checking mobile application, thermal cameras, and gateway testing. Compared with standardized masks, weekly PCR testing cost $9.27 million (95% Credible Interval [CrI]: cost-saving-$77.36 million)/QALY gained. Compared with weekly PCR testing, the 'package' intervention cost $137,877 (95% CrI: $3,108-$19.11 million)/QALY gained. At both a prevalence of 1% and 2%, the 'package' intervention saved money and improved health compared to all the other interventions. CONCLUSIONS: All interventions were effective at averting infection from COVID-19. However, when the prevalence of actively infectious cases in the community was low, only standardized, high filtration masks clearly provided value.

Should the Government Be Allowed to Take Control over Your Car as Part of a Disaster Management Plan?

INTRODUCTION: With the Safety Ensuring Lives Future Deployment and Research in Vehicle Evolution (SELF DRIVE) Act in the United States, there is a growing interest in autonomous vehicles (AVs). One avenue of innovation would be to use them to mobilize and coordinate response efforts during natural disasters. This study uses an earthquake response in an urban, developed setting as a hypothetical example case study. In this hypothetical scenario, private AVs would be mobilized to help rescue victims from collapsed structures. METHODS: A Markov model compared an intervention arm with AVs to a status quo arm using a hypothetical cohort of American earthquake victims. The three possible health states were trapped but alive, rescued and alive, and dead. The cycle length of the Markov model was 6 h. RESULTS: The cost of deploying AVs was $90,139 relative to $87,869 in status quo arm. Using AVs produced an incremental cost of $2269 (95% credible interval (CI) = $-12,985-$8959). Victims have 7.33 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in the intervention arm compared to 7.20 QALYs in the status quo arm, resulting in an incremental gain of 0.13 (95% CI = -0.73-2.19) QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $16,960/QALY gained (95% CI = cost-saving-$69,065/QALY). DISCUSSION: The mobilization of private AVs in the setting of an earthquake has the potential to save money and reduce the loss of life. AVs may advance emergency management competencies.

Differences between blacks and whites in well-being, beliefs, emotional states, behaviors and survival, 1978-2014.

OBJECTIVES: Material well-being, beliefs, and emotional states are believed to influence one's health and longevity. In this paper, we explore racial differences in self-rated health, happiness, trust in others, feeling that society is fair, believing in God, frequency of sexual intercourse, educational attainment, and percent in poverty and their association with mortality. STUDY DESIGNS: Age-period-cohort (APC) study. METHODS: Using data from the 1978-2014 General Social Survey-National Death Index (GSS-NDI), we conducted APC analyses using generalized linear models to quantify the temporal trends of racial differences in our selected measures of well-being, beliefs, and emotional states. We then conducted APC survival analysis using mixed-effects Cox proportional hazard models to quantify the temporal trends of racial differences in survival after removing the effects of racial differences in our selected measures. RESULTS: For whites, the decline in happiness was steeper than for blacks despite an increase in high school graduation rates among whites relative to blacks over the entire period, 1978-2010. Self-rated health increased in whites relative to blacks from 1978 through 1989 but underwent a relative decline thereafter. After adjusting for age, sex, period effects, and birth cohort effects, whites, overall, had higher rates of self-rated health (odds ratio [OR] = 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.63, 2.16), happiness (OR = 2.05; 1.77, 2.36), and high school graduation (OR = 2.88; 2.34, 3.53) compared with blacks. Self-rated health, happiness, and high school graduation also mediated racial differences in survival over time. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that some racial differences in survival could be partly mitigated by eliminating racial differences in health, happiness, and educational attainment. Future research is needed to analyze longitudinal clusters and identify causal mechanisms by which social, behavioral, and economic interventions can reduce survival differences.

Cost-effectiveness of neighbourhood slow zones in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Neighbourhood slow zones (NSZs) are areas that attempt to slow traffic via speed limits coupled with other measures (eg, speed humps). They appear to reduce traffic crashes and encourage active transportation. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NSZs in New York City (NYC), which implemented them in 2011. METHODS: We examined the effectiveness of NSZs in NYC using data from the city's Department of Transportation in an interrupted time series analysis. We then conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo analyses were conducted to test error in the model. RESULTS: After 2011, road casualties in NYC fell by 8.74% (95% CI 1.02% to 16.47%) in the NSZs but increased by 0.31% (95% CI -3.64% to 4.27%) in the control neighbourhoods. Because injury costs outweigh intervention costs, NSZs resulted in a net savings of US$15 (95% credible interval: US$2 to US$43) and a gain of 0.002 of a quality-adjusted life year (QALY, 95% credible interval: 0.001 to 0.006) over the lifetime of the average NSZ resident relative to no intervention. Based on the results of Monte Carlo analyses, there was a 97.7% chance that the NSZs fall under US$50 000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: While additional causal models are needed, NSZs appeared to be an effective and cost-effective means of reducing road casualties. Our models also suggest that NSZs may save more money than they cost.

The Trade-Off between Optimizing Flight Patterns and Human Health: A Case Study of Aircraft Noise in Queens, NY, USA.

Objectives: Airports in the U.S. have gradually been transitioning to automated flight systems. These systems generate new flight paths over populated areas. While they can improve flight efficiency, the increased noise associated with these novel flight patterns potentially pose serious health threats to the overflown communities. In this case study, we estimated the monetary benefits relative to health losses associated with one significant change in flight patterns at LaGuardia Airport, year-round use of "TNNIS Climb", which happened in 2012 as a result of flight automation in New York City. Prior to that, the use of the TNNIS Climb was limited to the U.S. Open tennis matches. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model using Markov health states to compare the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained associated with the limited use of TNNIS (old status quo) and the year-round use of TNNIS (current status quo). The TNNIS Climb increases airplane noise to above 60 decibels (dB) over some of the most densely populated areas of the city. We used this increased exposure to noise as the basis for estimating ground-level health using data from sound monitors. The total costs (including both direct and indirect costs), QALYs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were estimated for the limited versus the year-round use of the TNNIS Climb. Results: The incremental lifetime costs and QALYs per person exposed to noise associated with the limited versus the year-round use of TNNIS was $11,288, and 1.13, respectively. Therefore, the limited use of TNNIS had an ICER of $10,006/QALY gained relative to the year-round of TNNIS. Our analyses were robust to changes in assumptions and data inputs. Conclusions: Despite increases in efficiency, flight automation systems without a careful assessment of noise might generate flight paths over densely populated areas and cause serious health conditions for the overflown communities.

Cost-Effectiveness of Capping Freeways for Use as Parks: The New York Cross-Bronx Expressway Case Study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing a freeway deck park to increase urban green space. METHODS: Using the Cross-Bronx Expressway in New York City as a case study, we explored the cost-effectiveness of implementing deck parks. We built a microsimulation model that included increased exercise, fewer accidents, and less pollution as well as the cost of implementation and maintenance of the park. We estimated both the quality-adjusted life years gained and the societal costs for 2017. RESULTS: Implementation of a deck park over sunken parts of Cross-Bronx Expressway appeared to save both lives and money. Savings were realized for 84% of Monte Carlo simulations. CONCLUSIONS: In a rapidly urbanizing world, reclaiming green space through deck parks can bring health benefits alongside economic savings over the long term. Public Health Implications. Policymakers are seeking ways to create cross-sectorial synergies that might improve both quality of urban life and health. However, such projects are very expensive, and there is little information on their return of investment. Our analysis showed that deck parks produce exceptional value when implemented over below-grade sections of road.

The cost-effectiveness of bike lanes in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Our objective is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of investments in bike lanes using New York City's (NYC) fiscal year 2015 investment as a case study. We also provide a generalizable model, so that localities can estimate their return on bike lane investments. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bike lane construction using a two-stage model. Our regression analysis, to estimate the marginal addition of lane miles on the expansion in bike ridership, reveals that the 45.5 miles of bike lanes NYC constructed in 2015 at a cost of $8 109 511.47 may increase the probability of riding bikes by 9.32%. In the second stage, we constructed a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of bike lane construction. This model compares the status quo with the 2015 investment. We consider the reduced risk of injury and increased probability of ridership, costs associated with bike lane implementation and maintenance, and effectiveness due to physical activity and reduced pollution. We use Monte Carlo simulation and one-way sensitivity analysis to test the reliability of the base-case result. This model reveals that over the lifetime of all people in NYC, bike lane construction produces additional costs of $2.79 and gain of 0.0022 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per person. This results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1297/QALY gained (95% CI -$544/QALY gained to $5038/QALY gained). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that investments in bicycle lanes come with an exceptionally good value because they simultaneously address multiple public health problems. Investments in bike lanes are more cost-effective than the majority of preventive approaches used today.

Increased risk of heart disease and stroke among foreign-born females residing in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Although the number of foreign-born people residing in the United States is at its highest point in 80 years, a mortality analysis of the foreign born has not been conducted since 1989. This article provides an update of mortality rates among the foreign born in the United States and, in particular, examines mortality rates from heart disease among foreign-born females. METHODS: We calculated mortality rates for U.S.-born and foreign-born people for all causes-ischemic heart disease, stroke, neoplastic disease, hypertensive diseases, diabetes, accidents, infectious disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-for 1997. Death data were obtained from the 1997 Multiple Cause of Death data file, and population data were obtained from the 1997 Current Population Survey. RESULTS: While all-cause, age-adjusted mortality rates for foreign-born people are significantly lower than for native-born people, deaths due to ischemic heart disease and stroke are significantly higher among foreign-born females than native-born females (161.63 and 58.24 deaths, respectively, per 100,000 foreign-born females vs 122.01 and 49.39 deaths per 100,000 native-born females). CONCLUSIONS: Foreign-born females appear to be at greater risk of death from ischemic heart disease and stroke than native-born females. Future research efforts are needed to determine which foreign-born groups are most at risk for heart disease and stroke so that targeted prevention efforts can be initiated.