Understanding the effect of loneliness on unemployment: propensity score matching.

BACKGROUND: Loneliness and unemployment are each detrimental to health and well-being. Recent evidence suggests a potential bidirectional relationship between loneliness and unemployment in working age individuals. As most existing research focuses on the outcomes of unemployment, this paper seeks to understand the impact of loneliness on unemployment, potential interaction with physical health, and assess bidirectionality in the working age population. METHODS: This study utilised data from waves 9 (2017-19) and 10 (2018-2020) of the Understanding Society UK Household Longitudinal Study. Nearest-neighbour probit propensity score matching with at least one match was used to infer causality by mimicking randomisation. Analysis was conducted in three steps: propensity score estimation; matching; and stratification. Propensity scores were estimated controlling for age, gender, ethnicity, education, marital status, household composition, number of own children in household and region. Findings were confirmed in panel data random effect models, and heterogeneous treatment effects assessed by the matching-smoothing method. RESULTS: Experience of loneliness in at least one wave increased the probability of being unemployed in wave 10 by 17.5 [95%CI: 14.8, 20.2] percentage points. Subgroup analysis revealed a greater effect from sustained than transitory loneliness. Further exploratory analysis identified a positive average treatment effect, of smaller magnitude, for unemployment on loneliness suggesting bidirectionality in the relationship. The impact of loneliness on unemployment was further exacerbated by interaction with physical health. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to directly consider the potentially bidirectional relationship between loneliness and unemployment through analysis of longitudinal data from a representative sample of the working age population. Findings reinforce the need for greater recognition of wider societal impacts of loneliness. Given the persisting and potentially scarring effects of both loneliness and unemployment on health and the economy, prevention of both experiences is key. Decreased loneliness could mitigate unemployment, and employment abate loneliness, which may in turn relate positively to other factors including health and quality of life. Thus, particular attention should be paid to loneliness with additional support from employers and government to improve health and well-being.

Evaluating cost-effectiveness in the management of neuroendocrine neoplasms.

The rapid evolution of novel, costly therapies for neuroendocrine neoplasia (NEN) warrants formal high-quality cost-effectiveness evaluation. Costs of individual investigations and therapies are high; and examples are presented. We aimed to review the last ten years of standalone health economic evaluations in NEN. Comparing to published standards, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Database were searched for health economic evaluations (HEEs) in NEN published between 2010 and October 2019. Of 12 economic evaluations, 11 considered exclusively pharmacological treatment (3 studies of SSAs, 7 studies of sunitinib, everolimus and/or 177Lu-DOTATATE and 1 study of telotristat ethyl) and 1 compared surgery with intraarterial therapy. 7 studies of pharmacological treatment had placebo or best supportive care as the only comparator. There remains a paucity of economic evaluations in NEN with the majority industry funded. Most HEEs reviewed did not meet published health economic criteria used to assess quality. Lack of cost data collected from patient populations remains a significant factor in HEEs where clinical expert opinion is still often substituted. Further research utilizing high-quality effectiveness data and rigorous applied health economic analysis is needed.

The epidemiology of revision total knee and hip arthroplasty in England and Wales: a comparative analysis with projections for the United States. A study using the National Joint Registry dataset.

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) are recognised and proven interventions for patients with advanced arthritis. Studies to date have demonstrated a steady increase in the requirement for primary and revision procedures. Projected estimates made for the United States show that by 2030 the demand for primary TKA will grow by 673% and for revision TKA by 601% from the level in 2005. For THA the projected estimates are 174% and 137% for primary and revision surgery, respectively. The purpose of this study was to see if those predictions were similar for England and Wales using data from the National Joint Registry and the Office of National Statistics. Analysis of data for England and Wales suggest that by 2030, the volume of primary and revision TKAs will have increased by 117% and 332%, respectively between 2012 and 2030. The data for the United States translates to a 306% cumulative rate of increase between 2012 and 2030 for revision surgery, which is similar to our predictions for England and Wales. The predictions from the United States for primary TKA were similar to our upper limit projections. For THA, we predicted an increase of 134% and 31% for primary and revision hip surgery, respectively. Our model has limitations, however, it highlights the economic burden of arthroplasty in the future in England and Wales as a real and unaddressed problem. This will have significant implications for the provision of health care and the management of orthopaedic services in the future.

Common patterns of morbidity and multi-morbidity and their impact on health-related quality of life: evidence from a national survey.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the impact of specific patterns of multi-morbidity on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) from large samples of adult subjects. METHODS: We used data from the English General Practice Patient Survey 2011-2012. We defined multi-morbidity as the presence of two or more of 12 self-reported conditions or another (unspecified) long-term health problem. We investigated differences in HRQoL (EQ-5D scores) associated with combinations of these conditions after adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic deprivation and the presence of a recent illness or injury. Analyses were based on 831,537 responses from patients aged 18 years or older in 8,254 primary care practices in England. RESULTS: Of respondents, 23 % reported two or more chronic conditions (ranging from 7 % of those under 45 years of age to 51 % of those 65 years or older). Multi-morbidity was more common among women, White individuals and respondents from socio-economically deprived areas. Neurological problems, mental health problems, arthritis and long-term back problem were associated with the greatest HRQoL deficits. The presence of three or more conditions was commonly associated with greater reduction in quality of life than that implied by the sum of the differences associated with the individual conditions. The decline in quality of life associated with an additional condition in people with two and three physical conditions was less for older people than for younger people. Multi-morbidity was associated with a substantially worse HRQoL in diabetes than in other long-term conditions. With the exception of neurological conditions, the presence of a comorbid mental health problem had a more adverse effect on HRQoL than any single comorbid physical condition. CONCLUSION: Patients with multi-morbid diabetes, arthritis, neurological, or long-term mental health problems have significantly lower quality of life than other people. People with long-term health conditions require integrated mental and physical healthcare services.

Drug-eluting stents: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the use of drug-eluting coronary artery stents in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with coronary artery disease. DATA SOURCES: Bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, were searched from December 2002 to August 2005. Hand-searching was also done. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic literature review of effectiveness was conducted focusing primarily on randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Full economic evaluations that compared two or more options and considered both costs and consequences were eligible for inclusion in the economics review. A critique of manufacturer submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence and an economic evaluation in the form of cost-utility analysis were also carried out. RESULTS: In the 17 RCTs of drug-eluting stents (DES) versus bare metal stents (BMS), no statistically significant differences in mortality or myocardial infarction (MI) were identified up to 3 years. Significant reductions in repeat revascularisations were determined for DES compared with BMS [for example, at 1 year: target lesion revascularisation (TLR) relative risk 0.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.19 to 0.31; and target vessel revascularisation (TVR) relative risk 0.43; 95% CI 0.33 to 0.55]. This estimated benefit appears to be stable from 1 to 3 years. Binary restenosis and late luminal loss also favoured DES. In the eight RCTs of DES versus DES, no statistically significant differences in mortality or MI were detected between DES designs. In meta-analyses of TLR, TVR and composite event rate, marginal improvement in efficacy of Cypher trade mark over Taxus trade mark was observed. These results await confirmation beyond 1 year and differences in study design may have influenced reporting of outcomes. Ten full economic evaluations were included in the review and the balance of evidence indicated that DES are more cost-effective in higher risk patients. The review of submitted models confirmed the view that DES may be cost-effective only under very limited circumstances when realistic assumptions and data values were used. In the cost-utility analysis of DES versus BMS, the use of DES appears to reduce the rate of repeat revascularisations; benefit estimates used in the economic assessment are defined as 'broad' (i.e. cases involving any TLR/TVR irrespective of any other lesions/vessels undergoing revascularisation) and 'narrow' (i.e. cases involving TLR/TVR only). The incremental benefit to the patient is therefore described as the loss of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) avoided by not having to undergo a repeat revascularisation. Univariate sensitivity analysis and extreme values analysis indicate that the price premium, numbers of stents used in the index procedure and absolute risk reduction in repeat interventions most significantly influence the cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses also permit a range of values for efficacy and effectiveness to be considered for individual designs of DES. The cost-effectiveness results reveal that, all patients considered together, the calculated cost per QALY ratios are high (183,000-562,000 pounds) and outside the normal range of acceptability. Cost-effectiveness is only achieved for those non-elective patients who have undergone a previous coronary artery bypass graft and have small vessels. 'Real-world' data show that patient numbers in this latter group are very small (one in 3100 of all patients treated with PCI). CONCLUSIONS: The conclusions of the assessment are that the use of DES would be best targeted at the subgroups of patients with the highest risks of requiring reintervention, and could be considered cost-effective in only a small percentage of such patents. This is similar to the conclusion of our previous assessment. Trials of DES compared with new generation BMS and with DES would be useful, as would further evaluation of newer BMS in combination with drug administration.

Adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab for the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the comparative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab for the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). DATA SOURCES: Major electronic databases were searched up to November 2005. Unpublished evidence such as conference abstracts, reviews of published economic evaluations, and company submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) were also reviewed. REVIEW METHODS: The assessment was conducted according to accepted procedures for conducting and reporting systematic reviews and economic evaluations. Full economic evaluations that compared two or more options for treatment and considered both costs and consequences were eligible for inclusion in the economic literature review. RESULTS: Nine placebo controlled randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the review of clinical effects. These included two studies of adalimumab, five of etanercept and two of infliximab in comparison with placebo (along with conventional management). No RCTs directly comparing anti-tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) agents were identified. Meta-analyses were conducted for data on Assessment in Ankylosing Spondylitis (ASAS) (20, 50 and 70% improvement), mean change in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and mean change in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI) at 12 weeks following initiation of anti-TNF-alpha therapy or placebo for all three drugs. Meta-analyses were also conducted at 24 weeks for etanercept and infliximab. Each meta-analysis of anti-TNF-alpha therapy demonstrated statistically significant advantages over placebo, although there was no significant difference between individual anti-TNF-alpha agents. At 12 weeks, ASAS 50% responses were 3.6-fold more likely with anti-TNF-alpha treatment than placebo. Compared with baseline, BASDAI scores were reduced by close to 2 points at 12 weeks. Functional scores (BASFI) were reduced at 12 weeks. Six full economic evaluations (two peer-reviewed published papers, four abstracts) were included in the review. The conclusions among economic evaluations were mixed, although the balance of evidence indicates that over short time-frames anti-TNF-alpha therapies are unlikely to be considered cost-effective. The limitations of the clinical outcome data impose restrictions on the economic assessment of cost-effectiveness. Direct unbiased RCT evidence is only available in the short term. Current assessment tools are limited and at present BASDAI and BASFI are the best available, although not designed for, or ideal for, use in economic evaluations. The review of the three models submitted to NICE identified a number of inherent flaws and errors. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of etanercept and adalimumab were roughly similar, falling below an assumed willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds. The ICER for infliximab was in the range of 40,000-50,000 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The short-term (12-month) model developed by this report's authors confirmed the large front-loading of costs with a result that none of the three anti-TNF-alpha agents appears cost-effective at the current acceptable threshold, with infliximab yielding much poorer economic results (57,000-120,000 pounds per QALY). The assumptions of the short-term model were used to explore the cost-effectiveness of the use of anti-TNF-alpha agents in the long term. This model is far more speculative than the first since trends and parameter values must be projected far beyond the available evidence. Sensitivity analyses reveal wide variations in estimates of cost over the long term although it is considered unlikely that costs will decrease over time. CONCLUSIONS: The review of clinical data related to the three drugs (including conventional treatment) compared with conventional treatment plus placebo indicates that in the short term (12-24 weeks), the three treatments are clinically effective in relation to assessment of ASAS, BASDAI and BASFI. Indirect comparisons of treatments were limited and did not show a significant difference in effectiveness between the three agents. The short-term economic assessment indicates that none of the three anti-TNF-alpha agents is likely to be considered cost-effective at current acceptability thresholds, with infliximab consistently the least favourable option. There is an absence of evidence concerning a number of limiting factors related to patients suffering from AS, the disease itself and its treatment. In order to obtain robust estimates of the longer term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of anti-TNF-alpha agents for AS, clinical trials that aim to address these limiting factors need to be conducted.

Out-of-home day care for families living in a disadvantaged area of London: economic evaluation alongside a RCT.

BACKGROUND: Children born into poverty have lifelong disadvantages compared with those more fortunate; social interventions seek to break this cycle of poverty and deprivation. Early Years Centres are one such intervention. These were established in deprived areas in the UK to provide high quality out-of-home day care. This paper reports the results of an economic evaluation conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial of one of these centres in the Borough of Hackney, London. METHODS: Participants were randomized to receive either high quality day care as provided by the centre or to other child care that they secured for themselves where they chose to do so. Information on resource use (early years education and care, as well as health and social care) was collected over an 18-month period; this was valued using appropriate unit costs. The cost of education, social and health care together with the value of productivity gains and out-of-pocket costs were then compared with the effectiveness of the intervention, increased labour force participant in mothers. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the value of employment outweighs the costs of health and social services used, and in both groups there are cost savings. These are greater in the intervention group, therefore Early Years day care is an efficient use of resources. However, there is a net cost to the public sector of providing the intervention. The cost of achieving an additional mother in the labour force at 18 months is pound38 550 (85% CI of -pound1273, pound416 172). CONCLUSION: From the societal perspective, over an 18-month period, all child care is cost saving, but high quality day care provided by the Early Years Centre is a cost-effective alternative to day care provided by other local services in Hackney. The public sector, however, incurs added expense from this intervention.

Coronary artery stents: a rapid systematic review and economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the use of coronary artery stents in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases. REVIEW METHODS: The review was conducted following accepted guidelines for conducting systematic reviews. Randomised controlled trials that include comparisons of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) versus PTCA with stent, stent versus coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and drug-eluting stents (DES) versus non-DES in patients with CAD in native or graft vessels and those with stable angina or acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and unstable angina were also included. Data on the following outcome measures were included in the review: combined event rate or event-free survival, death, acute myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularisation, repeat treatment (PTCA, stent or CABG) and binary restenosis. An economic model was developed based on extrapolation of trends in mortality and revascularisation from clinical trials data to a 5-year time horizon. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were fulfilled by 50 studies comparing the use of stents with PTCA, six comparing stents with CABG and 12 comparing DES eluting stents with non-DES. No studies were identified that compared DES with PTCA or DES with CABG. Existing quality of life data suggest that revascularisation procedures reduce the patient's quality of life for a short period only. Stents were found to be more effective than PTCA in preventing adverse events and revascularisations. In multiple-vessel disease there was no evidence of a difference in mortality (at 1 year) between patients treated surgically and those receiving a stent. Patients treated surgically required fewer revascularisations. There is no evidence of a difference in mortality between patients receiving DES and those treated with bare metal stents at 1 year. A reduction in event rate at 9 and 12 months was found in patients treated with DES. This event rate is primarily made up of increased revascularisation rates in patients treated with bare metal stents. Two-year outcome data from one study indicate that this benefit of DES continues over the longer term. The economic model proved sufficient to indicate long-term trends in cost-effectiveness. CABG was found initially to be more expensive than bare metal stenting in multivessel disease and may have higher immediate risks, but over time the cost differential is reduced and long-term outcomes favour CABG over stenting. A similar situation was found for DES versus CABG in multiple-vessel disease. However, DES may not generally be considered a cost-effective alternative to bare metal stenting in single-vessel disease by policy makers as substantially higher costs are involved with a very small outcome benefit. CONCLUSIONS: DES might be considered cost-effective if the additional cost (compared with ordinary stents) was substantially reduced, the outcome benefits from the use of DES were much improved, and/or its use were targeted on the subgroups of patients with the highest risks of requiring reintervention. Long-term clinical studies are needed that focus on significant outcomes such as mortality. Further research should consider: the differences among plain stents; head-to-head comparisons within DES, CABG compared with DES; and the evaluation of newer non-DES against DES. Evaluation of the effects of revascularisation procedures and especially repeat revascularisation procedures on the patient's quality of life would also be useful, as would the development and testing of risk assessment tools to identify patients likely to need further revascularisations.