Atrial fibrillation and mortality in outpatients with heart failure in Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: In recent years, the prevalence and mortality of heart failure (HF) and other associated cardiovascular diseases have doubled in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Studies in high-income countries indicate that HF with concurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) is linked to increased mortality. Our objective was to determine the incidence and clinical outcomes of AF among patients with HF in SSA. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study using data collected between October 2018 and May 2020. SETTING: Outpatient clinic at a tertiary hospital in Mwanza, Tanzania. PARTICIPANTS: 303 adult participants (aged ≥18 years) with HF as defined by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (2016) and 100 adults with HF as defined by clinical criteria alone were enrolled into the study. Patients with comorbid medical condition that had prognosis of <3 months (ie, advance solid tumours, advance haematological malignancies) were excluded. METHODS: Participants were screened for AF, and their medical history, physical examinations and sociodemographic information were obtained. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine factors associated with AF incidence. Cox regression models were used to analyse 3-month mortality and its associated risk factors. RESULTS: We enrolled 403 participants with HF (mean age 60±19 years, 234 (58%) female). The AF prevalence was 17%. In multivariable models, factors associated with AF were low income, alcohol consumption and longer duration of HF. At the end of the 3-month follow-up, 120 out of 403 (30%) participants died, including 44% (31/70) of those with AF. Higher heart rate on ECG, more severe New York Heart Association HF class, rural residence and anaemia were significantly correlated with mortality. CONCLUSION: AF is common, underdiagnosed and is associated with significant mortality among outpatients with HF in Tanzania (HR 1.749, 95% CI 1.162 to 2.633, p=0.007). Our findings additionally identify tachycardia (>110 bpm, HR 1.879, 95% CI 1.508 to 2.340, p<0.001) as an easily measurable, high-impact physical examination finding for adverse outcomes in patients with HF.

Rationale, design and protocol of a cross-sectional study on pregnancy-related cardiovascular diseases in Tanzania (PRECARDT): burden, characterisation and prognostic significance at delivery.

INTRODUCTION: The paucity of data describing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in pregnancy in many parts of Africa including Tanzania has given rise to challenges in proper management by the healthcare providers. This study is set out to (1) determine the prevalence of a range of CVDs during pregnancy in women attending antenatal clinics in Tanzania and (2) determine the impact of these CVDs on maternal and fetal outcomes at delivery. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a cross-sectional study with a prospective component to be conducted in two referral hospitals in Tanzania. Pregnant women aged ≥18 years diagnosed with a CVD during the antenatal period are being identified and extensively characterised by performing clinical assessment, modified WHO staging, electrocardiography, echocardiography and laboratory tests. Patients identified with CVDs (exposed) and a subset without (unexposed) will be followed up to determine maternal and fetal outcomes at delivery. A minimum sample of 1560 will be sufficient to estimate the prevalence of CVDs with a 95% CI of 2.75% to 5.25%. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study is being conducted in accordance with the Helsinki declaration on studies involving human subjects. Ethical approvals have been obtained from Muhimbili University (reference number DA.282/298/01.C/) and Bugando Medical Centre (reference number CREC/330/2019) Ethics Committees. Informed consent is sought from all potential participants before any interview or investigations are performed. Study findings will be disseminated to the scientific community through different methods. Results will also be communicated to policymakers and to the public, as appropriate.