Forecast the Habitat Sustainability of Schoenus ferrugineus L. (Cyperaceae) in the Southern Urals under Climate Change.

An analysis of the current potential range of the Pleistocene relict plant species Schoenus ferrugineus and modeling of changes in its future range under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change in the middle and second half of the 21st century were carried out. The MaxEnt program was used for modeling. Climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids, and a digital elevation model were used as predictors. Modeling has shown that climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the suitability of S. ferrugineus habitat conditions by the mid-21st century. The predicted changes in the distribution of habitats of S. ferrugineus, a diagnostic species of calcareous mires and an indicator of their ecological state, indicate a possible strong transformation of wetland complexes in the Southern Urals region even under moderate climate change. A reduction in the distribution of S. ferrugineus at the eastern limit of its range will also be facilitated by more frequent extreme droughts. To maintain the distribution of S. ferrugineus on the eastern border of its range, a number of measures are proposed to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, contributing to the preservation of the hydrological regime of calcareous mires.

Analysis of the Potential Range of Anticlea sibirica L. (Kunth) and Its Changes under Moderate Climate Change in the 21st Century.

The study shows the analysis of the current potential range and the modeling of its changes in the hemiboreal species Anticlea sibirica. The models show the habitat suitability for A. sibirica under moderate climatic changes (RCP4.5) in the middle and second half of the 21st century. For modeling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim and a digital elevation model. The modeling has shown that climate change can be favorable for the spread of A. sibirica to the northeastern part of its range by expanding highly suitable habitats in mountainous landscapes along the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the rest of the range, the total area of suitable habitats will decrease. In areas with extremely deteriorating growing conditions, the species will persist in low-competition habitats such as rocky outcrops, riverbanks, and screes. The predicted change in the distribution of A. sibirica indicates a possible strong transformation of the vegetation cover in Siberia and the Urals, even under moderate climate change.

Pteridophyte distribution of the Urals and adjacent areas: a dataset.

BACKGROUND: Data on the species diversity and distribution of pteridophytes (lycophytes and ferns) in the Urals and adjacent areas are presented. The dataset includes 13,742 observations of two classes Lycopodiopsida and Polypodiopsida. In total, the dataset contains information on 16 families, 28 generas, 65 species, four subspecies and nine interspecies hybrids. All records are for lycophytes and ferns collected over 170 years between 1853 and 2021. The dataset presented is based on herbarium specimens, published data and field research conducted by the authors. This dataset is the first and important step towards generalising information on the current diversity and geographical distribution of pteridophytes in the Urals and adjacent areas. NEW INFORMATION: The dataset contains 13,742 records of 65 species of pteridophytes occurrences in the Urals and adjacent territories: Udmurt Republic (42,100 km2); Perm Krai (160,600 km2); Sverdlovsk Oblast (194,800 km2); Chelyabinsk Oblast (87,900 km2); Republic of Bashkortostan (143,600 km2); Tyumen Oblast (160,100 km2); Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (769,300 km2); Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (534,800km2) and Kurgan Oblast (71,500 km2). Each record includes a geographical description of the place of discovery and habitat, year of discovery, author of the finding and determination, as well as a link to a literary source (if the data were published) or the place of storage of the herbarium specimen. The presented dataset supplements the information on the occurrence of pteridophytes in the Russian Federation as a whole and clarifies their distribution in the Urals.

Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals.

The paper presents the results of predictions of the habitat persistence for rare relict of the Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED2010) and coarse fragment content in the top level of soil were used as predictors for modeling in the MaxEnt software. The impact of climate change on P. sibirica habitats under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios calculated from an ensemble of four general circulation models has been analyzed. The modeling has shown that the changes in the habitat suitability depend on the altitude. Deterioration of the habitats could be attributed to a temperature increase in mountain forest locations, and to a precipitation of driest quarter increase in mountain forest-steppe locations. In both cases, this leads to the expansion of forest and shrub vegetation. Monitoring of the habitat persistence of P. sibirica and other relict species of the Pleistocene floristic complex can play a major role in predictions, as their massive decline would constitute that climatic changes exceed the ranges of their fluctuations in the Holocene.