Adapting the log quadratic model to estimate age- and cause-specific mortality among neonates.

INTRODUCTION: Estimates for cause-specific mortality for neonates are generally available for all countries for neonates overall (0 to 28 days). However, cause-specific mortality is generally not being estimated at higher age resolution for neonates, despite evidence of heterogeneity in the causes of deaths during this period. We aimed to use the adapted log quadratic model in a setting where verbal autopsy was the primary means of determining cause of death. METHODS: We examined the timing and causes of death among a cohort of neonates in rural Nepal followed as part of the Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS). We adapted methods defined by Wilmoth et al (2012) and Guillot et al. (2022) to estimate age and cause-specific mortality among neonates. We used cross validation to estimate the accuracy of this model, holding out each three month period. We took the average cross validation across hold out as our measure of model performance and compared to a standard approach which did not account for the heterogeneity in cause-specific mortality rate within this age group. RESULTS: There were 957 neonates in the NOMS cohort with known age and cause of death. We estimated an average cross-validation error of 0.9 per 1000 live births for mortality due to prematurity in the first week, and 1.1 for mortality due to birth asphyxia, compared to the standard approach, having error 7.4 and 7.8 per 1000 live births, respectively. Generally mortality rates for less common causes such as congenital malformations and pneumonia were estimated with higher cross-validation error. CONCLUSIONS: The stability and precision of these estimates compare favorably with similar estimates developed with higher quality cause-specific mortality surveillance from China, demonstrating that reliably estimating causes of mortality at high resolution is possible for neonates in low resources areas.

Risk Factors of Pelvic Floor Disorders Among Women in Rural Nepal: A Case-Control Study.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Risk factors for pelvic floor disorders (PFDs) are not well understood in lower resource settings. The objective of this study is to determine the risk factors associated with stress urinary incontinence (SUI), urge urinary incontinence (UUI), and pelvic organ prolapse (POP) among women of reproductive age in rural Nepal. METHODS: This is a case-control study nested within a community-based cross-sectional survey of parous women of reproductive age with PFDs in the Sarlahi District of Nepal. The presence of PFDs was confirmed by clinical assessment. Detailed sociodemographic information and histories were captured. RESULTS: We examined 406 women; the mean (SD, range) age was 32.7 (8.5, 16-49) years, mean BMI (SD) was 19.7 (3.3) kg/m2, and median (range) number of pregnancies was 4 (1-11). Two hundred and three women (50.0%) had either SUI or UUI, 85 (17.8%) had both SUI and UUI, and 71 (17.5%) had POP at or beyond the hymen. After controlling for other variables significant on bivariate analysis, age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.06 [95% CI 1.03-1.09]), illiteracy (aOR 2.24 [95% CI 1.04-4.80]), and presence of upper gastrointestinal issues (aOR 3.30, [95% CI 1.77-6.16]) were independently associated with SUI/UUI. Age (aOR 1.05 [95% CI 1.02-1.09]), bispinous diameter (aOR 2.88 ([95% CI 1.11-7.47]), and subpubic angle (aOR 2.78 [95% CI 1.55-5.03]) were independently associated with POP. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for PFDs in a homogenous community of parous women of reproductive age in rural Nepal are similar to those found in parous women in higher income countries.

Factors Predicting Completion of Four or More Antenatal Care Visits in Sarlahi District, Nepal.

Background: A significant number of women die from pregnancy and childbirth complications globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Receiving at least four antenatal care (ANC) visits may be important in reducing maternal and perinatal deaths. This study investigates factors associated with attending ≥ 4 ANC visits in Sarlahi district of southern Nepal. Methods: A secondary analysis was conducted on data from the Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS), a cluster-randomized, community-based longitudinal pregnancy cohort study encompassing 34 Village Development Committees. We quantified the association between receipt/attendance of ≥ 4 ANC visits and socioeconomic, demographic, morbidity, and pregnancy history factors using logistic regression; Generalized Estimating Equations were used to account for multiple pregnancies per woman. Results: All pregnancies resulting in a live birth (n=31,867) were included in the model and 31.4% of those pregnancies received 4+ ANC visits. Significant positive associations include socioeconomic factors such as participation in non-farming occupations for women (OR=1.52, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.93), higher education (OR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.66, 1.93) and wealth quintile OR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.31, 1.59), nutritional status such as non-short stature (OR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.27), obstetric history such as adequate interpregnancy interval (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.45) and prior pregnancy but no live birth (OR=2.14, 95% CI: 1.57, 2.92), symptoms such as vaginal bleeding (OR=1.35, 95% CI:1.11, 1.65) and awareness of the government's conditional cash transfer ANC program (OR=2.26, 95% CI: 2.01, 2.54). Conversely, belonging to the lower Shudra caste (OR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.67), maternal age below 18 or above 35 (OR=0.81, 95% CI:0.74, 0.88; OR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.96)), preterm birth (OR=0.41, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.49), parity ≥ 1 (OR=0.66, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.72), and the presence of hypertension during pregnancy (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.90) were associated with decreased likelihood of attending ≥ 4 ANC visits. Conclusions: These findings underscore the importance of continuing and promoting the government's program and increasing awareness among women. Moreover, understanding these factors can guide interventions aimed at encouraging ANC uptake in the most vulnerable groups, subsequently reducing maternal-related adverse outcomes in LMICs. Trial registration: The clinicaltrial.gov trial registration number for NOMS was #NCT01177111. Registration date was August 6th, 2010.

Impact of topical applications of sunflower seed oil on neonatal mortality and morbidity in southern Nepal: a community-based, cluster-randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital-based studies have demonstrated topical applications of sunflower seed oil (SSO) to skin of preterm infants can reduce nosocomial infections and improve survival. In South Asia, replacing traditional mustard with SSO might have similar benefits. METHODS: 340 communities in Sarlahi, Nepal were randomised to use mustard oil (MO) or SSO for community practice of daily newborn massage. Women were provided oil in late pregnancy and the first month post partum, and visited daily through the first week of life to encourage massage practice. A separate data collection team visited on days 1, 3, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 to record vital status and assess serious bacterial infection. RESULTS: Between November 2010 and January 2017, we enrolled 39 479 pregnancies. 32 114 live births were analysed. Neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) were 31.8/1000 (520 deaths, 16 327 births) and 30.5/1000 (478 deaths, 15 676 births) in control and intervention, respectively (relative risk (RR)=0.95, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.08). Among preterm births, NMR was 90.4/1000 (229 deaths, 2533 births) and 79.2/1000 (188 deaths, 2373 births) in control and intervention, respectively (RR=0.88; 95% CI: 0.74, 1.05). Among preterm births <34 weeks, the RR was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.02). No statistically significant differences were observed in incidence of serious bacterial infection. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find any neonatal mortality or morbidity benefit of using SSO instead of MO as emollient therapy in the early neonatal period. Further studies examining whether very preterm babies may benefit are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT01177111).

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy.

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail the process of generating 17 rounds of scenarios and projections at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and disseminating results to the public health community and lay public. We also highlight how SMH was expanded to generate influenza projections during the 2022-23 season. We identify key impacts of SMH results on public health and draw lessons to improve future collaborative modeling efforts, research on scenario projections, and the interface between models and policy.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the mortality risks by fine strata of gestational age and birthweight among 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017. DESIGN: Descriptive multi-country secondary data analysis. SETTING: Nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. POPULATION: Liveborn infants from 15 population-based cohorts. METHODS: Subnational, population-based studies with high-quality birth outcome data were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. All studies included birthweight, gestational age measured by ultrasound or last menstrual period, infant sex and neonatal survival. We defined adequate birthweight as 2500-3999 g (reference category), macrosomia as ≥4000 g, moderate low as 1500-2499 g and very low birthweight as <1500 g. We analysed fine strata classifications of preterm, term and post-term: ≥42+0 , 39+0 -41+6 (reference category), 37+0 -38+6 , 34+0 -36+6 ,34+0 -36+6 ,32+0 -33+6 , 30+0 -31+6 , 28+0 -29+6 and less than 28 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median and interquartile ranges by study for neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and relative risks (RR). We also performed meta-analysis for the relative mortality risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by the fine categories, stratified by regional study setting (sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia) and study-level NMR (≤25 versus >25 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births). RESULTS: We found a dose-response relationship between lower gestational ages and birthweights with increasing neonatal mortality risks. The highest NMR and RR were among preterm babies born at <28 weeks (median NMR 359.2 per 1000 live births; RR 18.0, 95% CI 8.6-37.6) and very low birthweight (462.8 per 1000 live births; RR 43.4, 95% CI 29.5-63.9). We found no statistically significant neonatal mortality risk for macrosomia (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6-3.0) but a statistically significant risk for all preterm babies, post-term babies (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5) and babies born at 370 -386 weeks (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.4). There were no statistically significant differences by region or underlying neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to tracking vulnerable newborn types, monitoring finer categories of birthweight and gestational age will allow for better understanding of the predictors, interventions and health outcomes for vulnerable newborns. It is imperative that all newborns from live births and stillbirths have an accurate recorded weight and gestational age to track maternal and neonatal health and optimise prevention and care of vulnerable newborns.

Comparison of pregnancy and neonatal outcomes in a retrospective full pregnancy history survey versus population-based prospective records: a validation study in rural Sarlahi District, Nepal.

INTRODUCTION: Countries without complete civil registration and vital statistics systems rely on retrospective full pregnancy history surveys (FPH) to estimate incidence of pregnancy and mortality outcomes, including stillbirth and neonatal death. Yet surveys are subject to biases that impact demographic estimates, and few studies have quantified these effects. We compare data from an FPH vs. prospective records from a population-based cohort to estimate validity for maternal recall of live births, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in a rural population in Sarlahi District, Nepal. METHODS: We used prospective data, collected through frequent visits of women from early pregnancy through the neonatal period, from a population-based randomized trial spanning 2010-2017. We randomly selected 76 trial participants from three pregnancy outcome groups: live birth (n = 26), stillbirth (n = 25), or neonatal death (n = 25). Data collectors administered the Nepal 2016 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)-VII pregnancy history survey between October 22, 2021, and November 18, 2021. We compared total pregnancy outcomes and numbers of pregnancy and neonatal outcomes between the two data sources. We matched pregnancy outcomes dates in the two sources within ± 30 days and calculated measures of validity for adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Among 76 participants, we recorded 122 pregnancy outcomes in the prospective data and 104 outcomes in the FPH within ± 30 days of each woman's total observation period in the trial. Among 226 outcomes, we observed 65 live births that survived to 28 days, 25 stillbirths, and 32 live births followed by neonatal death in the prospective data and participants reported 63 live births that survived to 28 days, 15 stillbirths, and 26 live births followed by neonatal death in the pregnancy history survey. Sixty-two FPH outcomes were matched by date within ± 30 days to an outcome in prospective data. Stillbirth, neonatal death, higher parity, and delivery at a health facility were associated with likelihood of a non-matched pregnancy outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Stillbirth and neonatal deaths were underestimated overall by the FPH, potentially underestimating the burden of mortality in this population. There is a need to develop tools to reduce or adjust for biases and errors in retrospective surveys to improve reporting of pregnancy and mortality outcomes.

Supplementation with fortified balanced energy-protein during pregnancy and lactation and its effects on birth outcomes and infant growth in southern Nepal: protocol of a 2×2 factorial randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Many women in low and middle-income countries enter pregnancy with low nutritional reserves with increased risk of fetal growth restriction and poor birth outcomes, including small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and preterm birth. Balanced energy-protein (BEP) supplements have shown reductions in risk of stillbirth and SGA, yet variations in intervention format and composition and limited evidence on the impact of BEP during lactation on growth outcomes warrant further study. This paper describes the protocol of the Maternal Infant Nutrition Trial (MINT) Study, which aims to evaluate the impact of a fortified BEP supplement during pregnancy and lactation on birth outcomes and infant growth in rural Nepal. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MINT is a 2×2 factorial, household randomised, unblinded, efficacy trial conducted in a subarea of Sarlahi District, Nepal. The study area covers six rural municipalities with about 27 000 households and a population of approximately 100 000. Married women (15-30 years) who become pregnant are eligible for participation in the trial and are randomly assigned at enrolment to supplementation with fortified BEP or not and at birth to fortified BEP supplementation or not until 6 months post partum. The primary pregnancy outcome is incidence of SGA, using the INTERGROWTH-21st standard, among live born infants with birth weight measured within 72 hours of delivery. The primary infant growth outcome is mean length-for-age z-score at 6 months using the WHO international growth reference. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA (IRB00009714), the Committee on Human Research IRB at The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA (081739), and the Ethical Review Board of the Nepal Health Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal (174/2018). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03668977.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Risk factors for neonatal mortality: an observational cohort study in Sarlahi district of rural southern Nepal.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between maternal characteristics, adverse birth outcomes (small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and/or preterm) and neonatal mortality in rural Nepal. DESIGN: This is a secondary observational analysis to identify risk factors for neonatal mortality, using data from a randomised trial to assess the impact of newborn massage with different oils on neonatal mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal. SETTING: Rural Sarlahi district, Nepal. PARTICIPANTS: 40 119 pregnant women enrolled from 9 September 2010 to 16 January 2017. MAIN OUTCOME: The outcome variable is neonatal death. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted Hazard Ratios (aHRs) to assess the association between adverse birth outcomes and neonatal mortality. RESULTS: There were 32 004 live births and 998 neonatal deaths. SGA and/or preterm birth was strongly associated with increased neonatal mortality: SGA and preterm (aHR: 7.09, 95% CI: (4.44 to 11.31)), SGA and term/post-term (aHR: 2.12, 95% CI: (1.58 to 2.86)), appropriate-for-gestational-age/large-for-gestational-age and preterm (aHR: 3.23, 95% CI: (2.30 to 4.54)). Neonatal mortality was increased with a history of prior child deaths (aHR: 1.53, 95% CI: (1.24 to 1.87)), being a twin or triplet (aHR: 5.64, 95% CI: (4.25 to 7.48)), births at health posts/clinics or in hospital (aHR: 1.34, 95% CI: (1.13 to 1.58)) and on the way to facilities or outdoors (aHR: 2.26, 95% CI: (1.57 to 3.26)). Risk was lower with increasing maternal height from <145 cm to 145-150 cm (aHR: 0.78, 95% CI: (0.65 to 0.94)) to ≥150 cm (aHR: 0.57, 95% CI: (0.47 to 0.68)), four or more antenatal care (ANC) visits (aHR: 0.67, 95% CI: (0.53 to 0.86)) and education >5 years (aHR: 0.75, 95% CI: (0.62 to 0.92)). CONCLUSION: SGA and/or preterm birth are strongly associated with increased neonatal mortality. To reduce neonatal mortality, interventions that prevent SGA and preterm births by promoting ANC and facility delivery, and care of high-risk infants after birth should be tested. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01177111.

Quality of vital event data for infant mortality estimation in prospective, population-based studies: an analysis of secondary data from Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

INTRODUCTION: Infant and neonatal mortality estimates are typically derived from retrospective birth histories collected through surveys in countries with unreliable civil registration and vital statistics systems. Yet such data are subject to biases, including under-reporting of deaths and age misreporting, which impact mortality estimates. Prospective population-based cohort studies are an underutilized data source for mortality estimation that may offer strengths that avoid biases. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group, including 11 population-based pregnancy or birth cohort studies, to evaluate the appropriateness of vital event data for mortality estimation. Analyses were descriptive, summarizing study designs, populations, protocols, and internal checks to assess their impact on data quality. We calculated infant and neonatal morality rates and compared patterns with Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. RESULTS: Studies yielded 71,760 pregnant women and 85,095 live births. Specific field protocols, especially pregnancy enrollment, limited exclusion criteria, and frequent follow-up visits after delivery, led to higher birth outcome ascertainment and fewer missing deaths. Most studies had low follow-up loss in pregnancy and the first month with little evidence of date heaping. Among studies in Asia and Latin America, neonatal mortality rates (NMR) were similar to DHS, while several studies in Sub-Saharan Africa had lower NMRs than DHS. Infant mortality varied by study and region between sources. CONCLUSIONS: Prospective, population-based cohort studies following rigorous protocols can yield high-quality vital event data to improve characterization of detailed mortality patterns of infants in low- and middle-income countries, especially in the early neonatal period where mortality risk is highest and changes rapidly.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns: A descriptive analysis of subnational, population-based birth cohorts for 238 203 live births in low- and middle-income settings from 2000 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN: Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000. SETTING: Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. POPULATION: Live birth neonates. METHODS: We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification. RESULTS: There were 238 203 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.6, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0-2.9), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3-10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4-13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6-13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies. CONCLUSIONS: Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology.

Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. While the selection of an aggregation method can be guided by retrospective performance evaluations, this is not always possible. For example, if predictions are conditional on assumptions about how the future will unfold (e.g. possible interventions), these assumptions may never materialize, precluding any direct comparison between predictions and observations. Here, we summarize literature on aggregating probabilistic predictions, illustrate various methods for infectious disease predictions via simulation, and present a strategy for choosing an aggregation method when empirical validation cannot be used. We focus on the linear opinion pool (LOP) and Vincent average, common methods that make different assumptions about between-prediction uncertainty. We contend that assumptions of the aggregation method should align with a hypothesis about how uncertainty is expressed within and between predictions from different sources. The LOP assumes that between-prediction uncertainty is meaningful and should be retained, while the Vincent average assumes that between-prediction uncertainty is akin to sampling error and should not be preserved. We provide an R package for implementation. Given the rising importance of multi-model infectious disease hubs, our work provides useful guidance on aggregation and a deeper understanding of the benefits and risks of different approaches.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

Prevalence and predictors of spontaneous preterm births in Nepal: findings from a prospective, population-based pregnancy cohort in rural Nepal-a secondary data analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Preterm birth can have short-term and long-term complications for a child. Socioeconomic factors and pregnancy-related morbidities may be important to predict and prevent preterm births in low-resource settings. The objective of our study was to find prevalence and predictors of spontaneous preterm birth in rural Nepal. DESIGN: This is a secondary observational analysis of trial data (registration number NCT01177111). SETTING: Rural Sarlahi district, Nepal. PARTICIPANTS: 40 119 pregnant women enrolled from 9 September 2010 to 16 January 2017. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome variable is spontaneous preterm birth. Generalized Estimating Equations Poisson regression with robust variance was fitted to present effect estimates as risk ratios. RESULT: The prevalence of spontaneous preterm birth was 14.5% (0.5% non-spontaneous). Characteristics not varying in pregnancy associated with increased risk of preterm birth were maternal age less than 18 years (adjusted risk ratio=1.13, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.26); being Muslim (1.53, 1.16 to 2.01); first pregnancy (1.15, 1.04 to 1.28); multiple births (4.91, 4.20 to 5.75) and male child (1.10, 1.02 to 1.17). Those associated with decreased risk were maternal education >5 years (0.81, 0.73 to 0.90); maternal height ≥150 cm (0.89, 0.81 to 0.98) and being from wealthier families (0.83, 0.74 to 0.93). Pregnancy-related morbidities associated with increased risk of preterm birth were vaginal bleeding (1.53, 1.08 to 2.18); swelling (1.37, 1.17 to 1.60); high systolic blood pressure (BP) (1.47, 1.08 to 2.01) and high diastolic BP (1.41, 1.17 to 1.70) in the third trimester. Those associated with decreased risk were respiratory problem in the third trimester (0.86, 0.79 to 0.94); having poor appetite, nausea and vomiting in the second trimester (0.86, 0.80 to 0.92) and third trimester (0.86, 0.79 to 0.94); and higher weight gain from second to third trimester (0.89, 0.87 to 0.90). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of preterm birth is high in rural Nepal. Interventions that increase maternal education may play a role. Monitoring morbidities during antenatal care to intervene to reduce them through an effective health system may help reduce preterm birth.

Risk factors for community-acquired bacterial infection among young infants in South Asia: a longitudinal cohort study with nested case-control analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Risk factors predisposing infants to community-acquired bacterial infections during the first 2 months of life are poorly understood in South Asia. Identifying risk factors for infection could lead to improved preventive measures and antibiotic stewardship. METHODS: Five sites in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan enrolled mother-child pairs via population-based pregnancy surveillance by community health workers. Medical, sociodemographic and epidemiological risk factor data were collected. Young infants aged 0-59 days with signs of possible serious bacterial infection (pSBI) and age-matched controls provided blood and respiratory specimens that were analysed by blood culture and real-time PCR. These tests were used to build a Bayesian partial latent class model (PLCM) capable of attributing the probable cause of each infant's infection in the ANISA study. The collected risk factors from all mother-child pairs were classified and analysed against the PLCM using bivariate and stepwise logistic multivariable regression modelling to determine risk factors of probable bacterial infection. RESULTS: Among 63 114 infants born, 14 655 were assessed and 6022 had signs of pSBI; of these, 81% (4859) provided blood samples for culture, 71% (4216) provided blood samples for quantitative PCR (qPCR) and 86% (5209) provided respiratory qPCR samples. Risk factors associated with bacterial-attributed infections included: low (relative risk (RR) 1.73, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.42 to 2.11) and very low birth weight (RR 5.77, 95% CrI 3.73 to 8.94), male sex (RR 1.27, 95% CrI 1.07 to 1.52), breathing problems at birth (RR 2.50, 95% CrI 1.96 to 3.18), premature rupture of membranes (PROMs) (RR 1.27, 95% CrI 1.03 to 1.58) and being in the lowest three socioeconomic status quintiles (first RR 1.52, 95% CrI 1.07 to 2.16; second RR 1.41, 95% CrI 1.00 to 1.97; third RR 1.42, 95% CrI 1.01 to 1.99). CONCLUSION: Distinct risk factors: birth weight, male sex, breathing problems at birth and PROM were significantly associated with the development of bacterial sepsis across South Asian community settings, supporting refined clinical discernment and targeted use of antimicrobials.

Enhancing Nutrition and Antenatal Infection Treatment (ENAT) study: protocol of a pragmatic clinical effectiveness study to improve birth outcomes in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: The WHO Nutrition Target aims to reduce the global prevalence of low birth weight by 30% by the year 2025. The Enhancing Nutrition and Antenatal Infection Treatment (ENAT) study will test the impact of packages of pregnancy interventions to enhance maternal nutrition and infection management on birth outcomes in rural Ethiopia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: ENAT is a pragmatic, open-label, 2×2 factorial, randomised clinical effectiveness study implemented in 12 rural health centres in Amhara, Ethiopia. Eligible pregnant women presenting at antenatal care (ANC) visits at <24 weeks gestation are enrolled (n=2400). ANC quality is strengthened across all centres. Health centres are randomised to receive an enhanced nutrition package (ENP) or standard nutrition care, and within each health centre, individual women are randomised to receive an enhanced infection management package (EIMP) or standard infection care. At ENP centres, women receive a regular supply of adequately iodised salt and iron-folate (IFA), enhanced nutrition counselling and those with mid-upper arm circumference of <23 cm receive a micronutrient fortified balanced energy protein supplement (corn soya blend) until delivery. In standard nutrition centres, women receive routine counselling and IFA. EIMP women have additional screening/treatment for urinary and sexual/reproductive tract infections and intensive deworming. Non-EIMP women are managed syndromically per Ministry of Health Guidelines. Participants are followed until 1-month post partum, and a subset until 6 months. The primary study outcomes are newborn weight and length measured at <72 hours of age. Secondary outcomes include preterm birth, low birth weight and stillbirth rates; newborn head circumference; infant weight and length for age z-scores at birth; maternal anaemia; and weight gain during pregnancy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: ENAT is approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Addis Continental Institute of Public Health (001-A1-2019) and Mass General Brigham (2018P002479). Results will be disseminated to local and international stakeholders. REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15116516.

Demographic, socio-economic, obstetric, and behavioral factors associated with small-and large-for-gestational-age from a prospective, population-based pregnancy cohort in rural Nepal: a secondary data analysis.

BACKGROUND: In South Asia, a third of babies are born small-for-gestational age (SGA). The risk factors are well described in the literature, but many studies are in high-and-middle income countries or measure SGA on facility births only. There are fewer studies that describe the prevalence of risk factors for large-for-gestational age (LGA) in low-income countries. We aim to describe the factors associated with SGA and LGA in a population-based cohort of pregnant women in rural Nepal. METHODS: This is a secondary data analysis of community-based trial on neonatal oil massage (22,545 women contributing 39,479 pregnancies). Demographic, socio-economic status (SES), medical/obstetric history, and timing of last menstruation were collected at enrollment. Vital signs, illness symptoms, and antenatal care (ANC) attendance were collected throughout the pregnancy and neonatal weight was measured for live births. We conducted multivariate analysis using multinomial, multilevel logistic regression, reporting the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Outcomes were SGA, LGA compared to appropriate-for-gestational age (AGA) and were multiply imputed using birthweight recalibrated to time at delivery. RESULTS: SGA was associated with nulligravida (OR: 2.12 95% CI: 1.93-2.34), gravida/nulliparous (OR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.26-2.74), interpregnancy intervals less than 18 months (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27), and poor appetite/vomiting in the second trimester, (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.19-1.35). Greater wealth (OR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.69-0.88), swelling of hands/face in the third trimester (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.69-0.94) parity greater than five (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.92), male fetal sex (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86-0.98), and increased weight gain (OR: 0.93 per weight kilogram difference between 2nd and 3rd trimester, 95% CI: 0.92-0.95) were protective for SGA. Four or more ANC visits (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.41-0.68) and respiratory symptoms in the third trimester (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.84) were negatively associated with LGA, and maternal age < 18 years (OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.03-1.87) and respiratory symptoms in the second trimester (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.07-1.51) were positively associated with LGA. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are in line with known risk factors for SGA. Because the prevalence and mortality risk of LGA babies is low in this population, it is likely LGA status does not indicate underlaying illness. Improved and equitable access to high quality antenatal care, monitoring for appropriate gestational weight gain and increased monitoring of women with high-risk pregnancies may reduce prevalence and improve outcomes of SGA babies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study used in this secondary data analysis was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01177111.