Advanced machine learning approaches for predicting permeability in reservoir pay zones based on core analyses.

Permeability is the most important petrophysical characteristic for determining how fluids pass through reservoir rocks. This study aims to develop and assess intelligent computer-based models for predicting permeability. The research focuses on three novel models-Decision Tree, Bagging Tree, and Extra Trees-while also investigating previously applied techniques such as random forest, support vector regressor (SVR), and multiple variable regression (MVR). The primary dataset consists of 197 data points from a heterogeneous petroleum reservoir in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin, including laboratory-derived permeability (K), oil saturation ( S O ), water saturation ( S W ), grain density ( ρ g r ), porosity (φ), and depth. The most effective machine learning models are identified by a thorough analysis that makes use of a variety of statistical metrics, such as the coefficient of the determinant (R2), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), maximum error (maxE), and minimum error (minE). Additionally, core features are ranked based on their importance in permeability modeling. This study deviates from conventional approaches by proposing an efficient means of forecasting permeability, reducing reliance on labor-intensive and time-consuming laboratory work. The findings reveal that MVR is unsuitable for permeability prediction, with all developed models outperforming it. Extra Trees emerges as the most accurate model, with an R2 of 0.976, while random forest and bagging tree exhibit slightly lower R2 values of 0.961 and 0.964, respectively. The ranking of these algorithms based on performance criteria is as follows: extra trees, bagging tree, random forest, SVR, decision tree, and MVR. The study also presents a detailed analysis of the impact of input parameters, highlighting porosity (φ) and water saturation ( S W ) as the most influential, while grain density ( ρ g r ), oil saturation ( S O ), and depth are considered less important. This study contributes to the petroleum industry's knowledge by showcasing the inadequacy of MVR and highlighting the superior performance of machine learning models, particularly Extra Trees. The proposed models employed in this study can help engineers and researchers determine reservoir permeability quickly and accurately by using a few core attributes, reducing the dependency on resource-intensive and time-consuming laboratory work.

Prediction of gross calorific value from coal analysis using decision tree-based bagging and boosting techniques.

The calorific value of any fuel is one of the crucial parameters to grade fuel's burning capability. The bomb calorimeter has historically been used to calculate coal's gross calorific value (GCV). However, for many years, engineers and scientists were trying to measure coal's GCV without a bomb calorimeter, using only laboratory-derived ultimate and/or proximate analyses to eliminate tedious and time-consuming laboratory analyses. In this study, Extra trees, Bagging, Decision tree, and Adaptive boosting are developed for the first time in coal's GCV modeling. In addition, the prediction and computational efficiency of previously applied decision tree-based algorithms, such as Random forest, Gradient boosting, and XGBoost are investigated. Well-established empirical models, namely Schuster, Mazumdar, Channiwala and Parikh, Parikh et al. and Central Fuel Research Institute of India are examined to compare their efficiency with newly developed algorithms. Proximate and ultimate analysis parameters are ranked based on their significance in GCV modeling. The studied models are tuned using an exhaustive grid search technique. Statistical indexes, such as explained variance (EV), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determinant (R2), mean squared error (MSE), maximum error, minimum error, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are used to critique these models. To accomplish the goals, 7430 data points containing ten coal features, such as ash, moisture, fixed carbon, volatile matter, hydrogen, carbon, sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, and GCV are selected from the U.S. Geological Survey Coal Quality (COALQUAL) database. It has been found that, due to simplicity and location-specific constraints, empirical models could not correlate proximate and/or ultimate analyses with GCV. Bagging and boosting techniques tested here performed well with the coefficient of determinant (R2) of over 0.97. The XGBoost model outperforms other tree-based algorithms with the most significant coefficient of determinant (R2 of 0.9974) and lowest error values (MSE of 14703.3, max_error of 1027.2, MAE of 89.2, MAPE of 0.009). The studied models' ranking (highest to lowest) based on their performance are XGBoost, Extra trees, Random forest, Bagging, Gradient boosting, Decision tree, and Adaptive boosting. The correlation heatmap and scatterplots used here clearly indicate that oxygen and carbon are the utmost significant, whereas volatile matter and sulfur are the least essential rank parameters for GCV modeling. The strategy suggested in this research can aid engineers/operators in obtaining a rapid and accurate determination of the GCV with a few coal features, thus lessening complicated, tedious, expensive, and time-consuming laboratory efforts.