A case-control study of the infection risk of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Japan during the winter of 2020-2021.

In Japan, outbreaks of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) were reported between November 2020 and March 2021 in 52 poultry farms. Understanding HPAI epidemiology would help poultry industries improve their awareness of the disease and enhance the immediate implementation of biosecurity measures. This study was a simulation-based matched case-control study to elucidate the risk factors associated with HPAI outbreaks in chicken farms in Japan. Data were collected from 42 HPAI-affected farms and 463 control farms that were within a 5-km radius of each case farm but remained uninfected. When infected farms were detected as clusters, one farm was randomly selected from each cluster, considering the possibility that the cluster was formed by farm-to-farm transmission within an epidemic area. For each case farm, up to three control farms were selected within a 5-km radius. Overall, 26 case farms (16 layer and 10 broiler farms) and 75 control farms (45 layer and 30 broiler farms) were resampled 1000 times for the conditional logistic regression model with explanatory variables comprising geographical factors and farm flock size. A larger flock size and shorter distance to water bodies from the farm were found to increase infection risk in layer farms. Similarly, in broiler farms, a shorter distance to water bodies increased infection risk. On larger farms, frequent access of farm staff and instrument carriages to premises could lead to increased infection risk. Waterfowl visiting water bodies around farms may also be associated with infection risk.

Assessing population structure and migration patterns of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Japan.

Geographical wildlife patterns reflect historical range expansion and connectivity and provide insights into wildlife population management. In our large-scale phylogeographic population analysis of wild boars (Sus scrofa leucomystax) in Japan, we identified 15 clusters using 29 microsatellite markers, each structured within a range of approximately 200 km. This suggests that evolution was essentially driven by isolation by distance, and that the range of gene flow was limited. One cluster contained subpopulations located approximately 900 km apart, indicating the occurrence of past anthropogenic introductions. Moreover, we estimated effective migration to visualize the geographic genetic population diversity. This analysis identified six potential barriers, one of which involved large plains and mountainous areas in the Kanto region of eastern Japan. This barrier likely persisted in the two eastern clusters for an extended period, restricting migration to the neighboring areas. Overall, our study sheds light on the demographic history of wild boar in Japan, provides evidence of past anthropogenic introductions from distant areas, and highlights the importance of geographic barriers in shaping genetic diversity and population dynamics. This knowledge will be beneficial for forming informed wildlife management strategies toward the conservation of genetic integrity and ecological balance of wild boar populations in Japan.

Analysis of effective spatial range of oral vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar.

Classical swine fever (CSF) re-emerged in Gifu Prefecture, central Japan, in September 2018 and is currently widespread in wild boar populations. Due to its widespread in wild boars, an oral mass vaccination strategy was initiated in March 2019, employing a commercial bait vaccine that is a live attenuated vaccine. To enhance the effectiveness of oral vaccination, it is crucial to determine the vaccine's effective spatial range. This understanding is essential for devising a comprehensive vaccination strategy, which should also include a preliminary investigation of wild boar habitats before vaccination. This study aimed to estimate the effective range of oral vaccination for wild boars against CSF by analyzing the geographical relationship between immune wild boars and vaccination points within the vaccination areas in Gifu Prefecture. This study utilized oral vaccination data from April 2021 to March 2022. The prevalence of CSF infections in wild boars remained below 5% in this period, suggesting limited disease transmission and immune wild boars were considered to be induced by the effect of vaccination. Two vaccination campaigns were conducted during this period, with almost 2000 vaccination points each. To investigate the factors associated with the intensity (i.e., density) of immune wild boar, the nearest distances to a vaccination point and to a susceptible wild boar were evaluated as explanatory variables. The Rhohat procedure and point process model were utilized to analyze the relationship between the intensity of immune wild boars and the explanatory variables. The point process model revealed a significant decrease in the intensity of immune wild boars when the distance from the nearest vaccination point exceeded 500 m, indicating that the effective spatial range of bait vaccination is within 500 m of the vaccination point. Although the distance to the nearest susceptible animal did not show significance in the model, Rhohat plots indicated that the intensity of immune wild boars decreased at distances greater than 1200 m from the nearest susceptible wild boar. This finding highlights the importance of investigating susceptible wild boar populations within a range of at least 1200 m from a vaccination point before implementation. The present study revealed the effective range of oral vaccination for wild boars against CSF and indicated the importance of investigating susceptible wild boar habitats around vaccination points before the implementation of vaccination. These findings may help improve the effectiveness of oral vaccinations.

The probability distributions of the movement of dairy and beef cattle in Japan: a data note.

OBJECTIVES: Animal movement is an important factor in the transmission of infectious diseases among livestock. A better understanding of animal movement characteristics provides a more reliable estimation of disease spread and promotes modeling studies. In Japan, all the cattle movement information is recorded in a national database called the Individual Cattle Identification Register (ICIR)." Our previous studies using this information demonstrated heterogeneity in the movement of dairy and beef cows according to location, season, and age. The present study describes the probability distributions of the movement of Japanese dairy and beef cows in the following month on a regional basis. DATA DESCRIPTION: This publication contains four probability distribution datasets for the predicted locations of dairy and beef cows in Japan in the following month, which were developed using individual cattle movement information obtained from the ICIR. These datasets provide information on cattle movement in the following month on a regional basis, given properties such as birth region, location, time, and age.

Region-wise analysis of beef cow movements in Japan.

Animal movement is an important factor in the transmission of animal infectious diseases. A better understanding of movement patterns is therefore necessary for developing effective control measures against disease spread. In Japan, a cattle tracing system was established in 2003, following a bovine spongiform encephalopathy epidemic, and the information on all cattle movements has been stored in a national database maintained by the National Livestock Breeding Center. Using these data, we previously analyzed the movement of dairy cows, concluding that heterogeneities in cattle movement are associated with regional and seasonal factors. In the present study, we aimed to identify specific factors affecting the regional and seasonal movement patterns of beef cows in Japan. From April 2012 to March 2017, 797,553 farm-to-farm movement events were recorded. We analyzed movements by month and by cattle age and looked at the frequency of movement within and between seven regions spanning the national territory. Our results show that calf movement peaked at 9-10 months old; these movements were considered to be via the market and were frequent within and between regions. For inter-regional movements, Kyushu region was the top producer of calves for calf trading markets throughout Japan. With regard to intra-regional movements, round-trip movements for summer grazing were observed in May and October for cattle of various ages in the northern regions, especially Hokkaido and Tohoku. Moreover, the movements of Japanese Shorthorn breeds in Tohoku region exhibited consistent annual peaks in May and October/November, in accordance with their seasonal breeding practice. In the areas with high relative densities of dairy cows, such as Hokkaido, the shipping of newborn beef calves produced via embryo transfer to dairy cows was also observed. Overall, understanding the patterns of beef cow movement will help develop effective disease surveillance measures, such as pre-movement inspections focused on specific regions and types of movement.

Subgrouping and analysis of relationships between classical swine fever virus identified during the 2018-2020 epidemic in Japan by a novel approach using shared genomic variants.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a worldwide devastating disease of the pig industry caused by classical swine fever virus (CSFV). In September 2018, an outbreak of CSF occurred in Japan where the disease had been eradicated and was officially designated a CSF-free country since 2015. Following the detection of the first 2018 case on a farm in Gifu Prefecture, the disease spread among both farm pigs and wild boars and still continues. Epigenome analysis using whole-genome information is helpful in identifying the infection route, but the current approaches provide an insufficient resolution. In this study, a novel method of using single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) was employed to identify the associations among 158 isolates (65 from farms and 93 from wild boars). The identified groups of CSFV strains were plotted in different colours on a map, identifying the location where each strain was collected. The lack of an SNV set shared between the index case and the other strains suggested the first infection in Japan during the outbreak occurred in wild boars, not at the index farm. For the Atsumi Peninsula outbreaks, where nine farms were found infected within a 10-km radius area, the farm strains were assembled into three groups, suggesting these outbreaks resulted from at least three different infection events in this area. For the infections in the area around Saitama Prefecture, an area remote from the epicentre, strains from both the farms and wild boars were identified as being in the same group, suggesting they resulted from one viral introduction. Likewise, seven infected farms in Okinawa Prefecture, almost 1,500 km from Gifu Prefecture, were identified as being in a common, but separate group. By demonstrating the variety of transmission routes and possibility of long-distance infection, these results will help improve disease control measures.

Additive Bayesian network analysis of the relationship between bovine respiratory disease and management practices in dairy heifer calves at pre-weaning stage.

BACKGROUND: Nursery farms that accept nursing and growing pre-weaned heifer calves from private dairy farms must work to prevent bovine respiratory disease (BRD). Knowledge of the BRD-associated risk factors related to calf management and calves' condition will help to develop appropriate neonatal management practices at original farms and to identify calves at higher risk for BRD at nursery farms. In this study, the relationship between BRD and calf management practices (colostrum feeding, dam parity, serum total protein concentration at introduction (TP), body weight at introduction, introduction season, and daily average growth) was investigated using observational data from pre-weaned dairy calves introduced into a nursery farm in Hokkaido, Japan between 2014 and 2018 (n = 3185). Using additive Bayesian network (ABN) analysis, which is a multivariate statistical modelling approach, the direct and indirect associations between these factors were assessed. RESULTS: Colostrum feeding contributed to an increase in TP (correlation 1.02 [95 % CI, 0.94;1.10]), which was negatively associated with BRD directly (log odds ratio - 0.38 [- 0.46;-0.31]) and indirectly through increasing daily growth (correlation 0.12 [0.09;0.16]). Calves of multiparous dams had higher body weight at introduction (correlation 0.82 [0.74;0.89]), which indirectly reduced BRD risk through the increasing daily growth (correlation 0.17 [0.14;0.21]). Calves introduced during winter had the highest risk for BRD (log odds ratio 0.29 [0.15;0.44]), while those introduced in summer had the lowest risk (log odds ratio - 0.91 [- 1.06;-0.75]). The introduction season was also associated with BRD indirectly through dam parity, body weight at introduction, and daily growth. CONCLUSIONS: The following calf management practices are recommended for preventing BRD in pre-weaned calves at nursery farms: (1) encouraging colostrum feeding to neonatal calves at their original farms; and (2) identifying calves with higher BRD risk, i.e., those without feeding colostrum, born to primiparous cattle, with low body weight at introduction, and/or introduced in winter, and paying intensive attention to the calves for rapid detection of BRD. ABN analysis applied enabled us to understand the complex inter-relationships between BRD incidence and the risk factors, which will help to reduce BRD incidence and to rear healthy calves at nursery farms.

Region-wise analysis of dairy cow movements in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Animal movement is considered the most significant factor in the transmission of infectious diseases in livestock. A better understanding of its effects would help provide a more reliable estimation of the disease spread and help develop effective control measures. If the movement pattern is heterogeneous, its characteristics should be considered in epidemiological analyses, such as when using simulation models to obtain reliable outputs. In Japan, following the bovine spongiform encephalopathy epidemic, a traceability system for cattle was established in 2003, and the registration of all cattle movements in the national database began. This study is the first to analyze cattle movements in Japan. We examined regional and seasonal heterogeneity in dairy cow movements, which accounted for most Japanese breeding cattle. RESULTS: In the 14 years from April 2005 to March 2018, 4,577,709 between-farm movements of dairy cows were recorded, and the number of movements was counted by month and age for both inter- and intra-regional movements. As a result, two characteristic round-trip movements were observed: one was non-seasonal and inter-regional movements related to cattle-breeding ranches in Hokkaido (the northern region of Japan), which consists of the movement of cows around ages 6 to 8 and 21 to 23 months old. In addition, the seasonal movement of heifers for summer grazing within Hokkaido occurred in May and October at the peak ages of 13 to 14 and 19 to 20 months old, respectively. The observed heterogeneity seemed to reflect the suitability of raising the Holstein breed in Hokkaido and the shortage of supply of replacement heifers and available farming areas outside Hokkaido. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the patterns of dairy cow movements will help develop reliable infectious disease models and be beneficial for developing effective control measures against these diseases.

Epidemiological analysis of classical swine fever in wild boars in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Classical swine fever (CSF) is a contagious disease of pigs and wild boars that is transmitted through direct/indirect contact between animals or CSF virus-contaminated fomites. When the disease re-emerged in 2018 in Japan, a CSF-infected wild boar was reported shortly after the initial pig farm outbreak; subsequently, the disease spread widely. To control the disease spread among wild boars, intensive capturing, fencing, and oral bait vaccination were implemented with concomitant virological and serological surveillance. This study aimed to describe the disease spread in the wild boar population in Japan from September 2018, when the first case was reported, to March 2020, based on the surveillance data. We conducted statistical analyses using a generalized linear mixed model to identify factors associated with CSF infection among wild boars. Moreover, we descriptively assessed the effect of oral bait vaccination, which started in March 2019 in some municipalities in the affected areas. RESULTS: We observed a faster CSF infection spread in the wild boar population in Japan compared with the CSF epidemics in European countries. The infection probability was significantly higher in dead and adult animals. The influence of the multiple rounds of oral bait vaccination was not elucidated by the statistical modeling analyses. There was a decrease and increase in the proportion of infected and immune animals, respectively; however, the immunization in piglets remained insufficient after vaccination for 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Conditions regarding the wild boar habitat, including forest continuity, higher wild boar population density, and a larger proportion of susceptible piglets, were addressed to increase the infection risk in the wild boar population. These findings could improve the national control strategy against the CSF epidemic among wild boars.

Epidemiology of Classical Swine Fever in Japan-A Descriptive Analysis of the Outbreaks in 2018-2019.

This study describes the epidemiological characteristics of classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in Japan. The first case was confirmed in September 2018, 26 years after the last known case. Outbreaks occurred on 39 farms, 34 commercial farms, and 5 non-commercial farms, between September 2018 and August 2019. In this study, a descriptive analysis was conducted of the epidemiological data on the characteristics of the affected farms, clinical manifestations, intra-farm transmission, association with infected wild boars, and control measures implemented on the farms. Twenty-eight of the 34 affected commercial farms were farrow-to-finish farms. It was assumed that the major risk factors were frequent human-pig interactions and the movement of pigs between farms. Fever and leukopenia were commonly observed in infected pigs. In 12 out of 18 farms where clinical manifestations among fattening pigs was the reason for notification, death was the most frequent clinical manifestation, but the proportion of dead animals did not exceed 0.5% of the total number of animals at most of the affected farms. Therefore, the clinical form of CSF in Japan was considered to be sub-acute. Twenty-three of the 29 farms (79%) with pigs at multiple stages (i.e., piglets, fattening pigs, and sows), had infection across the multiple stages. Many of these farms were within 5 km of the site where the first infected wild boars had been discovered, suggesting that infected wild boars were the source of infection. Infections still occurred at farms that had implemented measures at their farm boundaries to prevent the introduction of the virus into their farms, such as disinfection of vehicles and people, changing boots of the workers, and installation of perimeter fences. It is necessary to continue to strengthen biosecurity measures for farms located in areas with infected wild boars and to continue monitoring the distribution of infected wild boars so that any abnormalities can be reported and inspected at an early stage.

Evaluation of sampling methods for effective detection of infected pig farms during a disease outbreak.

Emergency surveillance following an outbreak of transboundary animal diseases such as classical swine fever (CSF), is conducted to find another new infection as early as possible. Although larger sample sizes can help achieve higher disease surveillance sensitivity, the sample size is limited by the availability of resources in an emergency situation. Moreover, the recent CSF outbreak reported in Japan was associated with fewer clinical signs; this emphasizes the importance of detecting infected farms by surveillance. In this study, we aimed to identify effective and labor-efficient sampling methods showing high probabilities of detecting infection, by simulating infection and sampling in pigsties. We found that impartial sampling, which involves selection of pigs to be sampled from the four corners and the center of the pigsty, and random sampling showed comparable probabilities of detection. Impartial sampling involves sample collection without pig identification and random selection. Owing to its simplicity, impartial sampling is labor-efficient and thus a possible substitute for random sampling. In a group-housing pigsty, testing five pigs from five pens showed a higher detection probability than testing five pigs from one pen. These results suggest preferable surveillance methods for conducting emergency surveillance of infectious diseases.

Estimation of infection risk on pig farms in infected wild boar areas-Epidemiological analysis for the reemergence of classical swine fever in Japan in 2018.

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after 26 years' absence. The first case was detected at a pig farm in Gifu Prefecture, in the center of Japan, and the disease spread to both domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa). The spread of CSF in wild boar is extremely difficult to control and is thus a great threat to domestic pig farms, and understanding the transmission risk from wild boar to domestic pigs is essential to implement effective control measures that will prevent domestic pig infection. Therefore, this study elucidates the transmission risk from wild boar to domestic pigs by introducing a transmission kernel that is dependent on the distance between infected wild boar and pig farms, and then estimating the risk area of infection from wild boar by describing the transmission probability. The study used epidemiological data from Gifu Prefecture in the period from September 2018 to March 2019, including a total of 171 1-km grid cells where an infected wild boar was detected and pig farm data from 13 infected and 34 uninfected farms. The estimated infection risk area within 28 days matched well with the observed data. The risk area widened gradually during the epidemic, and at the end of March, the risk area extended over a range of approximately 75 km from east to west and 40 km from north to south (almost 3000 km2). Ten out of the 13 infected farms and four out of the 34 uninfected farms were located within the high-risk area (>60 % infection probability). In contrast, one infected farm and 18 uninfected farms were located within the low-risk area (<5 % infection probability). When several infected grid cells were detected within 5 km of a pig farm, the risk of infection from wild boar within 28 days was more than 5 %. This analysis provides an estimate of the potential spatial range over which CSF virus can spread between wild boar and domestic pig farms, and can be used to inform the early detection of CSF-suspected pigs and the strengthening of biosecurity measures that will effectively prevent and control the disease based on the infection risk level.