Evolution of HIV virulence in response to disease-modifying vaccines: A modeling study.

Pathogens face a tradeoff with respect to virulence; while more virulent strains often have higher per-contact transmission rates, they are also more likely to kill their hosts earlier. Because virulence is a heritable trait, there is concern that a disease-modifying vaccine, which reduces the disease severity of an infected vaccinee without changing the underlying pathogen genotype, may result in the evolution of higher pathogen virulence. We explored the potential for such virulence evolution with a disease-modifying HIV-1 vaccine in an agent-based stochastic epidemic model of HIV in United States men who have sex with men (MSM). In the model, vaccinated agents received no protection against infection, but experienced lower viral loads and slower disease progression. We compared the genotypic set point viral load (SPVL), a measure of HIV virulence, in populations given vaccines that varied in the degree of SPVL reduction they induce. Sensitivity analyses were conducted under varying vaccine coverage scenarios. With continual vaccination rollout under ideal circumstances of 90 % coverage over thirty years, the genotypic SPVL of vaccinated individuals evolved to become greater than the genotypic SPVL of unvaccinated individuals. This virulence evolution in turn diminished the public health benefit of the vaccine, and in some scenarios resulted in an accelerated epidemic. These findings demonstrate the complexity of viral evolution and have important implications for the design and development of HIV vaccines.

Why does age at HIV infection correlate with set point viral load? An evolutionary hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: Set-point viral load (SPVL) correlates with the age at which people acquire HIV. Although immunosenescence may seem like a parsimonious explanation for this, it does not easily explain the observation that the relationship between age and SPVL attenuates when accounting for source partner SPVL. Here we propose an alternative explanation that encompasses this latter finding: that decreasing risk of acquisition with older age generates a selection bottleneck that selects for more virulent strains with age. METHODS: We adapted a previously published model of HIV transmission and evolution (EvoNetHIV), parameterized here for men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted a series of simulation experiments that vary seven behavioral or clinical parameters that affect exposure risk as people age. We conducted regressions to determine the mean increase in SPVL per 10-year increase in seroconversion age, with and without source SPVL in the model. RESULTS: All runs generated significant relationships between seroconversion age and SPVL when not including source SPVL. All saw attenuated relationships, most to near 0, with source SPVL included. Four of our behavioral measures (relational duration, age-related homophily, coital frequency, and mean age at relationship formation) had clear effects on this relationship, all in the hypothesized direction. Combining multiple forms of behavioral heterogeneity yielded an increase of 0.056 log10 copies/mL SPVL per 10-year increase in seroconversion age, nearly as large as that seen in two empirical studies of age-SPVL correlations in MSM. CONCLUSION: The higher virulence of HIV among those infected later in life may be partly explained by a combination of selective bottlenecks and behavioral heterogeneity by age. Variation in the strength of this effect across populations may be in part due to different behavioral, epidemiological and clinical conditions, and not require assumptions about differences in patterns of immunosenescence among populations.

Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study.

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.

Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men.

HIV set point viral load (SPVL), the viral load established shortly after initial infection, is a proxy for HIV virulence: higher SPVLs lead to higher risk of transmission and faster disease progression. Three models of test-and-treat scenarios, mainly in heterosexual populations, found that increasing treatment coverage selected for more virulent viruses. We modeled virulence evolution in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) with increasing test-and-treat coverage. We extended a stochastic, dynamic network model (EvoNetHIV). We varied relationship patterns (MSM vs. heterosexual), HIV transmission models (increasing vs. plateauing probability of transmission at very high viral loads), and treatment roll-out (with explicit testing or fixed intervals between infection and treatment). In scenarios most similar to previous models (longer relational durations and the plateauing transmission function), we replicated trends previously found: increasing treatment coverage led to increased virulence (0.12 log10 increase in mean population SPVL between 20% and 100% treatment coverage). In scenarios reflecting MSM behavioral data using the increasing transmission function, increasing treatment coverage selected for viruses with lower virulence (0.16 log10 decrease in mean population SPVL between 20% and 100% treatment coverage). These findings emphasize the impact of sexual network conditions and transmission function details on predicted epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes. Varying these features creates very different evolutionary environments, which in turn lead to opposite effects in mean population SPVL evolution. Our results suggest that, under some realistic conditions, effective test-and-treat strategies may not face the previously reported tradeoff in which increasing coverage leads to evolution of greater virulence. This suggests instead that a virtuous cycle of increasing treatment coverage and diminishing virulence is possible.

Large benefits to youth-focused HIV treatment-as-prevention efforts in generalized heterosexual populations: An agent-based simulation model.

Predominantly heterosexual HIV-1 epidemics like those in sub-Saharan Africa continue to have high HIV incidence in young people. We used a stochastic, agent-based model for age-disparate networks to test the hypothesis that focusing uptake and retention of ART among youth could enhance the efficiency of treatment as prevention (TasP) campaigns. We used the model to identify strategies that reduce incidence to negligible levels (i.e., < 0.1 cases/100 person-years) 20-25 years after initiation of a targeted TasP campaign. The model was parameterized using behavioral, demographic, and clinical data from published papers and national reports. To keep a focus on the underlying age effects we model a generalized heterosexual population with average risks (i.e., no MSM, no PWIDs, no sex workers) and no entry of HIV+ people from other regions. The model assumes that most people (default 95%, range in variant simulations 60-95%) are "linkable"; i.e., could get linked to effective care given sufficient resources. To simplify the accounting, we assume a rapid jump in the number of people receiving treatment at the start of the TasP campaign, followed by a 2% annual increase that continues until all linkable HIV+ people have been treated. Under historical scenarios of CD4-based targeted ART allocation and current policies of untargeted (random) ART allocation, our model predicts that viral replication would need to be suppressed in 60-85% of infected people at the start of the TasP campaign to drive incidence to negligible levels. Under age-based strategies, by contrast, this percentage dropped by 18-54%, depending on the strength of the epidemic and the age target. For our baseline model, targeting those under age 30 halved the number of people who need to be treated. Age-based targeting also minimized total and time-discounted AIDS deaths over 25 years. Age-based targeting yielded benefits without being highly exclusive; in a model in which 60% of infected people were treated, ~87% and ~58% of those initiating therapy during a campaign targeting those <25 and <30 years, respectively, fell outside the target group. Sensitivity analyses revealed that youth-focused TasP is beneficial due to age-related risk factors (e.g. shorter relationship durations), and an age-specific herd immunity (ASHI) effect that protects uninfected adolescents entering the sexually active population. As testing rates increase in response to UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals, efforts to link all young people to care and treatment could contribute enormously to ending the HIV epidemic.

Sexual role and HIV-1 set point viral load among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 set point viral load (SPVL) is a highly variable trait that influences disease progression and transmission risk. Men who are exclusively insertive (EI) during anal intercourse require more sexual contacts to become infected than exclusively receptive (ER) men. Thus, we hypothesize that EIs are more likely to acquire their viruses from highly infectious partners (i.e., with high SPVLs) and to have higher SPVLs than infected ERs. METHODS: We used a one-generation Bernoulli model, a dynamic network model, and data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) to examine whether and under what circumstances MSM differ in SPVL by sexual role. RESULTS: Both models predicted higher SPVLs in EIs than role versatile (RV) or ER men, but only in scenarios where longer-term relationships predominated. ER and RV men displayed similar SPVLs. EI men remained far less likely than ER men to become infected, however. When the MACS data were limited by some estimates of lower sex partner counts (a proxy for longer relationships), EI men had higher SPVLs; these differences were clinically relevant (>0.3 log10 copies/mL) and statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Mode of acquisition may be an important aspect of SPVL evolution in MSM, with clinical implications.

Relational concurrency, stages of infection, and the evolution of HIV set point viral load.

HIV viral load (VL) predicts both transmission potential and rate of disease progression. For reasons that are still not fully understood, the set point viral load (SPVL) established after acute infection varies across individuals and populations. Previous studies have suggested that population mean SPVL (MSPVL) has evolved near an optimum that reflects a trade-off between transmissibility and host survival. Sexual network structures affect rates of potential exposure during different within-host phases of infection marked by different transmission probabilities, and thus affect the number and timing of transmission events. These structures include relational concurrency, which has been argued to explain key differences in HIV burden across populations. We hypothesize that concurrency will alter the fitness landscape for SPVL in ways that differ from other network features whose impacts accrue at other times during infection. To quantitatively test this hypothesis, we developed a dynamic, stochastic, data-driven network model of HIV transmission, and evolution to assess the impact of key sexual network phenomena on MSPVL evolution. Experiments were repeated in sensitivity runs that made different assumptions about transmissibility during acute infection, SPVL heritability, and the functional form of the relationship between VL and transmissibility. For our main transmission model, scenarios yielded MSPVLs ranging from 4.4 to 4.75 log10 copies/ml, covering much of the observed empirical range. MSPVL evolved to be higher in populations with high concurrency and shorter relational durations, with values varying over a clinically significant range. In linear regression analyses on these and other predictors, main effects were significant (P < 0.05), as were interaction terms, indicating that effects are interdependent. We also noted a strong correlation between two key emergent properties measured at the end of the simulations-MSPVL and HIV prevalence-most clearly for phenomena that affect transmission networks early in infection. Controlling for prevalence, high concurrency yielded higher MSPVL than other network phenomena. Interestingly, we observed lower prevalence in runs in which SPVL heritability was zero, indicating the potential for viral evolution to exacerbate disease burden over time. Future efforts to understand empirical variation in MSPVL should consider local HIV burden and basic sexual behavioral and network structure.

HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Development of an HIV vaccine might be essential to ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic. However, vaccines can result in the emergence and spread of vaccine-resistant strains. Indeed, analyses of breakthrough infections in the HIV phase 3 vaccine trial RV144 identified HIV genotypes with differential rates of transmission in vaccine and placebo recipients. We hypothesized that, for HIV vaccination programs based on partially effective vaccines similar to RV144, HIV adaptation will rapidly diminish the expected vaccine impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using two HIV epidemic models, we simulated large-scale vaccination programs and, critically, included HIV strain diversity with respect to the vaccine response. We show here that rapid population-level viral adaptation can lead to decreased overall vaccine efficacy and substantially fewer infections averted by vaccination, when comparing scenarios with and without viral evolution (with outcomes depending on vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy against the sensitive allele, and the initial resistant allele frequency). Translating this to the epidemic in South Africa, a scenario with 70% vaccination coverage may result in 250,000 infections (non-averted by vaccination) within 10 years of vaccine rollout that are due solely to HIV adaptation, all else being equal. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that approaches to HIV vaccine development, program implementation, and epidemic modeling may require attention to viral adaptation in response to vaccination.

ß-Zone Parapapillary Atrophy and Rates of Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression: African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study.

Importance: ß-zone parapapillary atrophy (ßPPA) has been reported as a risk factor for glaucoma onset and progression. Previous studies have shown that the prevalence of ßPPA differs between individuals of African descent (AD) and European descent (ED). Objective: To test whether the association between the presence and progression of ßPPA vs visual field progression of glaucoma differs between these 2 ancestry groups. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a prospective, multicenter, longitudinal cohort study, 634 individuals (1090 eyes) enrolled in the African Descent and Evaluation Study (ADAGES) with a diagnosis of glaucomatous optic neuropathy (GON) or ocular hypertension (OHT) and at least 2 disc stereophotographs were included. Two graders masked to clinical and ancestry data reviewed and graded the baseline and last disc stereophotographs for the presence of ßPPA at baseline and ßPPA progression (development or enlargement). Mixed-effects linear models were tested with visual field mean deviation as a dependent variable and time (alone and with interaction terms) as independent variables. ADAGES enrollment began in January 2003 and ended in July 2006; follow-up ended in 2016. Exposures: Disc stereophotographs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Progression of ßPPA in AD and ED individuals. Results: In 634 patients, a total of 814 eyes of AD (395 eyes) and ED (419) patients with GON and 276 eyes of AD (106) and ED (170) patients with OHT who were enrolled in ADAGES were analyzed. There were 336 (53.0%) women in the study; mean (SD) age was 61.9 (12.7) years. In the OHT group, the association between ßPPA at baseline and visual field progression was not significantly different between AD and ED eyes (ß = 0.071; 95% CI, -0.016 to 0.158; P = .11), nor was the association between ßPPA progression and visual field progression (ß = 0.020; 95% CI, -0.465 to 0.506; P = .93). In the GON group, ED eyes with baseline ßPPA progressed faster than did AD eyes with baseline ßPPA (ß = -0.124; 95% CI, -0.241 to -0.007; P = .04), although the association between ßPPA progression and visual field progression did not differ significantly between race groups (ß = -0.101; 95% CI, -0.323 to 0.119; P = .37). Conclusions and Relevance: Race had a significant effect on the association between baseline ßPPA and rates of visual field progression in eyes with GON. Progression of ßPPA was not associated with faster visual field progression in either racial group.

Abundance and recruitment data for Undaria pinnatifida in Brest harbour, France: Model versus field results.

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "A modelling approach to explore the critical environmental parameters influencing the growth and establishment of the invasive seaweed Undaria pinnatifida in Europe" [1]. This article describes raw simulation data output from a novel individual-based model of the invasive kelp species Undaria pinnatifida. It also includes field data of monthly abundance and recruitment values for a population of invasive U. pinnatifida (in Brest harbour, France) that were used to validate the model. The raw model output and field data are made publicly available in order to enable critical analysis of the model predictions and to inform future modelling efforts of the study species.

A modelling approach to explore the critical environmental parameters influencing the growth and establishment of the invasive seaweed Undaria pinnatifida in Europe.

A key factor to determine the expansion dynamics and future distribution of non-native species is their physiological response to abiotic factors and their changes over time. For this study we developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model of population growth to represent the complex population dynamics of invasive marine macroalgae with heteromorphic biphasic life cycles. The model framework represents this complex life cycle by treating the individual developmental stages (gametophytes/sporophytes) as autonomous agents with unique behaviour/growth parameters. It was parameterised to represent a well-documented invasive algal species, the Asian kelp Undaria pinnatifida, and validated against field results from an in situ population in Brittany, France, showing good quantitative agreement in terms of seasonal changes in abundance/recruitment and growth dynamics. It was then used to explore how local environmental parameters (light availability, temperature and day length) affect the population dynamics of the individual developmental stages and the overall population growth. This type of modelling approach represents a promising tool for understanding the population dynamics of macroalgae from the bottom-up in terms of the individual interactions between the independent life history stages (both microscopic and macroscopic). It can be used to trace back the behaviour of the population as a whole to the underlying physiological and environmental processes impacting each developmental stage and give insights into the roles these play in invasion success.

Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study.

There are global increases in the use of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), guided by clinical benefits of early ART initiation and the efficacy of treatment as prevention of transmission. Separately, it has been shown theoretically and empirically that HIV virulence can evolve over time; observed virulence levels may reflect an adaptive balance between infected lifespan and per-contact transmission rate. However, the potential effects of widespread ART usage on HIV virulence are unknown. To predict these effects, we used an agent-based stochastic model to simulate evolutionary trends in HIV virulence, using set point viral load as a proxy for virulence. We calibrated our model to prevalence and incidence trends of South Africa. We explored two distinct ART scenarios: (1) ART initiation based on HIV-infected individuals reaching a CD4 count threshold; and (2) ART initiation based on individual time elapsed since HIV infection (a scenario that mimics "universal testing and treatment" (UTT) aspirations). In each case, we considered a range in population uptake of ART. We found that HIV virulence is generally unchanged in scenarios of CD4-based initiation. However, with ART initiation based on time since infection, virulence can increase moderately within several years of ART rollout, under high coverage levels and early treatment initiation (albeit within the context of epidemics that are rapidly decreasing in size). Sensitivity analyses suggested the impact of ART on virulence is relatively insensitive to model calibration. Our modeling study suggests that increasing HIV virulence driven by UTT is likely not a major public health concern, but should be monitored in sentinel surveillance, in a manner similar to transmitted resistance to antiretroviral drugs.

A Simple Flight Mill for the Study of Tethered Flight in Insects.

Flight in insects can be long-range migratory flights, intermediate-range dispersal flights, or short-range host-seeking flights. Previous studies have shown that flight mills are valuable tools for the experimental study of insect flight behavior, allowing researchers to examine how factors such as age, host plants, or population source can influence an insects' propensity to disperse. Flight mills allow researchers to measure components of flight such as speed and distance flown. Lack of detailed information about how to build such a device can make their construction appear to be prohibitively complex. We present a simple and relatively inexpensive flight mill for the study of tethered flight in insects. Experimental insects can be tethered with non-toxic adhesives and revolve around an axis by means of a very low friction magnetic bearing. The mill is designed for the study of flight in controlled conditions as it can be used inside an incubator or environmental chamber. The strongest points are the very simple electronic circuitry, the design that allows sixteen insects to fly simultaneously allowing the collection and analysis of a large number of samples in a short time and the potential to use the device in a very limited workspace. This design is extremely flexible, and we have adjusted the mill to accommodate different species of insects of various sizes.

A theoretical analysis of the Allee effect in wind-pollinated cordgrass plant invasions.

A new individual-based model is presented for investigating an important group of invasive plant species, from the genus Spartina, that threaten biodiversity in coastal and intertidal habitats around the world. The role of pollen limitation in influencing the early development of an invasion is explored in order to gain a greater understanding of the mechanistic basis for an apparent Allee effect (causal relationship between population size/density and mean individual fitness) observed in populations of invasive Spartina species. The model is used to explore how various factors such as atmospheric stability, wind direction/speed, pollen characteristics and spatial structure of the population affect the overall invasion dynamics and reproductive success. Comparisons were also made between invasive species of Spartina (S. alterniflora, S. anglica) and a non-invasive species (S. foliosa), showing a reduced Allee effect was associated with invasion success. Furthermore, the conclusions drawn here may give insights into some of the fundamental processes affecting the growth and population dynamics of other invasive wind-pollinated plants.

A theoretical analysis of the prodrug delivery system for treating antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Simulations were carried out to analyze a promising new antimicrobial treatment strategy for targeting antibiotic-resistant bacteria called the ß-lactamase-dependent prodrug delivery system. In this system, the antibacterial drugs are delivered as inactive precursors that only become activated after contact with an enzyme characteristic of many species of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ß-lactamase enzyme). The addition of an activation step contributes an extra layer of complexity to the system that can lead to unexpected emergent behavior. In order to optimize for treatment success and minimize the risk of resistance development, there must be a clear understanding of the system dynamics taking place and how they impact on the overall response. It makes sense to use a systems biology approach to analyze this method because it can facilitate a better understanding of the complex emergent dynamics arising from diverse interactions in populations. This paper contains an initial theoretical examination of the dynamics of this system of activation and an assessment of its therapeutic potential from a theoretical standpoint using an agent-based modeling approach. It also contains a case study comparison with real-world results from an experimental study carried out on two prodrug candidate compounds in the literature.

A computational model of antibiotic-resistance mechanisms in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).

An agent-based model of bacteria-antibiotic interactions has been developed that incorporates the antibiotic-resistance mechanisms of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The model, called the Micro-Gen Bacterial Simulator, uses information about the cell biology of bacteria to produce global information about population growth in different environmental conditions. It facilitates a detailed systems-level investigation of the dynamics involved in bacteria-antibiotic interactions and a means to relate this information to traditional high-level properties such as the Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic. The two main resistance strategies against beta-lactam antibiotics employed by MRSA were incorporated into the model: beta-lactamase enzymes, which hydrolytically cleave antibiotic molecules, and penicillin-binding proteins (PBP2a) with reduced binding affinities for antibiotics. Initial tests with three common antibiotics (penicillin, ampicillin and cephalothin) indicate that the model can be used to generate quantitatively accurate predictions of MICs for antibiotics against different strains of MRSA from basic cellular and biochemical information. Furthermore, by varying key parameters in the model, the relative impact of different kinetic parameters associated with the two resistance mechanisms to beta-lactam antibiotics on cell survival in the presence of antibiotics was investigated.

DOE/NETL's phase II mercury control technology field testing program: preliminary economic analysis of activated carbon injection.

Based on results of field testing conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL), this article provides preliminary costs for mercury control via conventional activated carbon injection (ACI), brominated ACI, and conventional ACI coupled with the application of a sorbent enhancement additive (SEA) to coal prior to combustion. The economic analyses are reported on a plant-specific basis in terms of the cost required to achieve low (50%), mid (70%), and high (90%) levels of mercury removal "above and beyond" the baseline mercury removal achieved by existing emission control equipment. In other words, the levels of mercury control are directly attributable to ACI. Mercury control costs via ACI have been amortized on a current dollar basis. Using a 20-year book life, levelized costs for the incremental increase in cost of electricity (COE), expressed in mills per kilowatt-hour (mills/kWh), and the incremental cost of mercury control, expressed in dollars per pound of mercury removed ($/lb Hg removed), have been calculated for each level of ACI mercury control. For this analysis, the increase in COE varied from 0.14 mills/kWh to 3.92 mills/kWh. Meanwhile, the incremental cost of mercury control ranged from $3810/lb Hg removed to $166000/lb Hg removed.