Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines.

Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.

Blind testing of shoreline evolution models.

Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999-2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014-2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models' capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.

Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

Instability and finite-amplitude self-organization of large-scale coastline shapes.

Recent research addresses the formation of patterns on sandy coastlines on alongshore scales that are large compared with the cross-shore extent of active sediment transport. A simple morphodynamic instability arises from the feedback between wave-driven alongshore sediment flux and coastline shape. Coastline segments with different orientations experience different alongshore sediment fluxes, so that curvatures in coastline shape drive gradients in sediment flux, which can augment the shoreline curvatures. In a simple numerical model, this instability, and subsequent finite-amplitude interactions between pattern elements, lead to a wide range of different rhythmic shapes and behaviours-ranging from symmetric cuspate capes and bays to alongshore migrating 'flying spits'-depending on the characteristics of the input wave forcing. The scale of the pattern coarsens in some cases because of the merger of migrating coastline features, and in other cases because of non-local screening interactions between coastline protrusions, which affect the waves reaching other parts of the coastline. Features growing on opposite sides of an enclosed water body mutually affect the waves reaching each other in ways that lead to the segmentation of elongated water bodies. Initial tests of model predictions and comparison with observations suggest that modes of pattern formation in the model are relevant in nature.

Instability and finite-amplitude self-organization of large-scale coastline shapes.

Recent research addresses the formation of patterns on sandy coastlines on alongshore scales that are large compared with the cross-shore extent of active sediment transport. A simple morphodynamic instability arises from the feedback between wave-driven alongshore sediment flux and coastline shape. Coastline segments with different orientations experience different alongshore sediment fluxes, so that curvatures in coastline shape drive gradients in sediment flux, which can augment the shoreline curvatures. In a simple numerical model, this instability, and subsequent finite-amplitude inter-actions between pattern elements, lead to a wide range of different rhythmic shapes and behaviours--ranging from symmetric cuspate capes and bays to alongshore migrating 'flying spits'--depending on the characteristics of the input wave forcing. The scale of the pattern coarsens in some cases because of the merger of migrating coastline features, and in other cases because of non-local screening interactions between coastline protrusions, which affect the waves reaching other parts of the coastline. Features growing on opposite sides of an enclosed water body mutually affect the waves reaching each other in ways that lead to the segmentation of elongated water bodies. Initial tests of model predictions and comparison with observations suggest that modes of pattern formation in the model are relevant in nature.

A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution.

The evolution of tidal marsh platforms and interwoven channel networks cannot be addressed without treating the two-way interactions that link biological and physical processes. We have developed a 3D model of tidal marsh accretion and channel network development that couples physical sediment transport processes with vegetation biomass productivity. Tidal flow tends to cause erosion, whereas vegetation biomass, a function of bed surface depth below high tide, influences the rate of sediment deposition and slope-driven transport processes such as creek bank slumping. With a steady, moderate rise in sea level, the model builds a marsh platform and channel network with accretion rates everywhere equal to the rate of sea-level rise, meaning water depths and biological productivity remain temporally constant. An increase in the rate of sea-level rise, or a reduction in sediment supply, causes marsh-surface depths, biomass productivity, and deposition rates to increase while simultaneously causing the channel network to expand. Vegetation on the marsh platform can promote a metastable equilibrium where the platform maintains elevation relative to a rapidly rising sea level, although disturbance to vegetation could cause irreversible loss of marsh habitat.