Governance and groundwater modelling: Hints to boost the implementation of the EU Nitrate Directive. The Lombardy Plain case, N Italy.

The EU Nitrate Directive has been ruling for almost 30 years, nevertheless nitrate concentration in the Lombardy Plain did not decrease. Together with failures of management implementation, a possible cause for such field observations is that management actions were taken without adequately considering the actual hydrogeological dynamics. To consider this aspect, the paper presents a groundwater flow and transport numerical model of a specific area of the Lombardy Plain. The aim of this model is to demonstrate how modelling, as a management tool, can be useful in the governance process. The groundwater model, using well-known MODFLOW-MT3D codes, is based on existing hydrogeological information, while a nitrogen mass balance has been performed at municipal scale to determine the agricultural N surplus to the subsurface. The model adequately reproduces head levels and nitrate concentrations in observation wells for a 10-year simulation period, showing that 4.5% of the N annual input remains stored in the system. The model indicates the efficiency of rivers and springs to export N out from the system at an estimated rate of 77.5% of the annual N inputs. Back to governance, the model shows that management data at municipal level (e.g. irrigation rates, groundwater withdrawal, N net recharge) provide a satisfactory scale for successfully reproducing nitrate evolution. Hence those variables that can be object of debate during a governance process can be treated as input data to the numerical model. Therefore, backcasting exercises can be conducted to check whether the model outcome fits with the expected results of specific management actions. The model highlights how the N mass balance evolves, providing clues on which factors can be managed to reduce nitrate concentrations and meet the Directive's requirements. Numerical groundwater models, as an option to address water management issues, ultimately contribute to solve the information and capacity governance gaps.

Planning for the health impacts of climate change: Flooding, private groundwater contamination and waterborne infection - A cross-sectional study of risk perception, experience and behaviours in the Republic of Ireland.

The frequency and severity of flooding events will increase over the coming decades due to global climate change. While close attention has typically been paid to infrastructural and environmental outcomes of flood events, the potential adverse human health consequences associated with post-event consumption from private groundwater sources have received minimal attention, leading to a poor understanding of private well users' preparedness and the drivers of positive behavioural adoption. The current study sought to quantify the capacity of private well users to cope with flood-triggered contamination risks and identify the social psychological determinants of proactive attitudes in the Republic of Ireland, using a cross-sectional questionnaire incorporating two distinct models of health behaviour, the Health Belief Model and Risk-Attitude-Norms-Ability-Self Regulation model. Adoption of healthy behaviours prior to flooding was evaluated with respect to respondents' risk exposure, risk experience and risk perception, in addition to systematic supply stewardship under normal conditions. Associations between adoption of protective behaviours and perception, experience and socio-demographic factors were evaluated through multinomial and multiple logistic regressions, while a multi-model inferential approach was employed with the predictors of health behaviour models. Findings suggest that floods are not considered likely to occur, nor were respondents worried about their occurrence, with 72.5% of respondents who reported previous flooding experience failing to adopt protective actions. Prior experience of well water contamination increased adoption of proactive attitudes when flooding occurred (+47%), with a failure to adopt healthy behaviours higher among rural non-agricultural residents (136%). Low levels of preparedness to deal with flood-related contamination risks are a side-effect of the general lack of appropriate well stewardship under normal conditions; just 10.1% of respondents adopted both water treatment and frequent testing, in concurrence with limited risk perception and poor awareness of the nexus between risk factors (e.g. floods, contamination sources) and groundwater quality. Perceived risk, personal norms and social norms were the best predictors of protective behaviour adoption and should be considered when developing future awareness campaigns.

EU Nitrates Directive, from theory to practice: Environmental effectiveness and influence of regional governance on its performance.

Despite the European Nitrate Directive (ND) being issued almost 30 years ago, groundwater nitrate contamination is still a serious threat to ecosystems and human health. In one of the areas most affected by nitrates, the Lombardy Plain (Italy), the effectiveness of the ND and the capacity of governance to support its application correctly was assessed using a socio-hydrogeological approach. Nitrate trends over 11 years show that most regions present steady or increasing concentrations, highlighting how contamination can affect previously impaired situations and supposedly resistant and resilient aquifers. Stakeholder network analysis reveals that the governance framework does not support knowledge dissemination and changes in farmers' attitudes, hindering water quality improvements. Nitrogen input needs to be reduced and manure relocation monitored. The local governance scale has a key role in enhancing ND dissemination. Reports to the EU Commission should integrate multi- or interdisciplinary evaluation of trends, including governance dynamics, alongside hydrochemical information.