Modified early warning score and risk of mortality after acute stroke.

OBJECTIVE: An accurate prediction tool may facilitate optimal management of patients with acute stroke from an early stage. We evaluated the association between admission modified early warning score (MEWS) and mortality in patients with acute stroke. METHOD: Data from the Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study (ASCNES) were analysed. We evaluated the association between admission MEWS and four outcomes; in-patient, 7-day, 30-day and 1-year mortality. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the odds of all mortality timeframes, whereas Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate mortality at 1 year. Five univariate and multivariate models were constructed, adjusting for confounders. Patients with a moderate (2-3) or high (≥4) scores were compared to patients with a low score (0-1). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 2006 patients. A total of 1196 patients had low MEWS, 666 had moderate MEWS and 144 had a high MEWS. A high MEWS was associated with increased mortality as an in-patient (OR 4.93, 95 % CI: 2.88-8.42), at 7 days (OR 7.53, 95 % CI: 4.24-13.38), at 30 days (OR 5.74, 95 % CI: 3.38-9.76) and 1-year (HR 2.52, 95 % CI 1.88-3.39). At 1 year, model 5 had a 1.02 OR (95 % CI 0.83-1.24) with moderate MEWS and 2.52 (95 % CI 1.88-3.39) with high MEWS. CONCLUSION: Elevated MEWS on admission is a potential marker for acute-stroke mortality and may therefore be a useful risk prediction tool, able to guide clinicians attempting to prognosticate outcomes for patients with acute-stroke.

Variations in Rates of Discharges to Nursing Homes after Acute Hospitalization for Stroke and the Influence of Service Heterogeneity: An Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study.

Nursing home placement after stroke indicates a poor outcome but numbers placed vary between hospitals. The aim of this study is to determine whether between-hospital variations in new nursing home placements post-stroke are reliant solely on case-mix differences or whether service heterogeneity plays a role. A prospective, multi-center cohort study of acute stroke patients admitted to eight National Health Service acute hospitals within the Anglia Stroke and Heart Clinical Network between 2009 and 2011 was conducted. We modeled the association between hospitals (as a fixed-effect) and rates of new discharges to nursing homes using multiple logistic regression, adjusting for important patient risk factors. Descriptive and graphical data analyses were undertaken to explore the role of hospital characteristics. Of 1335 stroke admissions, 135 (10%) were discharged to a nursing home but rates varied considerably from 6% to 19% between hospitals. The hospital with the highest adjusted odds ratio of nursing home discharges (OR 4.26; 95% CI 1.69 to 10.73), was the only hospital that did not provide rehabilitation beds in the stroke unit. Increasing hospital size appeared to be related to an increased odds of nursing home placement, although attenuated by the number of hospital stroke admissions. Our results highlight the potential influence of hospital characteristics on this important outcome, independently of patient-level factors.

Hospital-Level Variations in Rates of Inpatient Urinary Tract Infections in Stroke.

Background and purpose: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common complications following stroke and has prognostic significance. UTI rates have been shown to vary between hospitals, but it is unclear whether this is due to case-mix differences or heterogeneities in care among hospitals. Methods: A prospective multi-center cohort study of acute stroke patients admitted to eight National Health Service (NHS) acute hospital trusts within the Anglia Stroke & Heart Clinical Network between 2009 and 2011 was conducted. We modeled the association between hospital (as a fixed-effect) and inpatient UTI using a multivariable logistic regression model, adjusting for established patient-level risk factors. We graphically and descriptively analyzed heterogeneities in hospital-level characteristics. Results: We included 2,241 stroke admissions in our analysis; 171 (7.6%) acquired UTI as an inpatient. UTI rates varied significantly between the eight hospitals, ranging from 3 to 11%. The hospital that had the lowest odds of UTI [odds ratio (OR) = 0.50 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22-.11)] in adjusted analysis, had the highest number of junior doctors and occupational therapists per five beds of all hospitals. The hospital with the highest adjusted UTI rate [OR=2.69 (1.56-4.64)] was tertiary, the largest and had the highest volume of stroke patients, lowest number of stroke unit beds per 100 admissions, and the highest number of hospital beds per CT scanner. Conclusions: There is hospital-level variation in post-stroke UTI. Our results suggest the potential influence of service characteristics independently of patient-level factors which may be amenable to be addressed to improve the ultimate stroke outcome.

Hyperglycaemia and the SOAR stroke score in predicting mortality.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the association between admission blood glucose levels and acute stroke mortality and examined whether there was any incremental value of adding glucose status to the validated acute stroke mortality predictor - the SOAR (stroke subtype, Oxford Community Stroke Project classification, age, and pre-stroke modified Rankin) score. METHODS: Data from Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital stroke and Transient Ischaemic Attack register (2003-2013) and Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study (2009-2012) were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression analysis assessed the association between admission blood glucose levels with inpatient and 7-day mortality. The prognostic ability of the SOAR score was then compared with the SOAR with glucose score. RESULTS: A total of 5575 acute stroke patients (ischaemic stroke: 89.2%) with mean age (standard deviation) of 76.97 ( ± 11.88 ) years were included. Both borderline hyperglycaemia (7.9-11.0 mmol/L) and hyperglycaemia (>11.0 mmol/L) when compared to normoglycaemia (4.0-7.8 mmol/L) were associated with both 7-day and inpatient mortality after controlling for sex, age, Oxford Community Stroke Project classification and pre-stroke modified Rankin score. Both the SOAR stroke score and SOAR-G score were good predictors of inpatient stroke mortality [area under the curve: 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.84)], respectively. These scores were also good at predicting outcomes in both patients with and without diabetes. CONCLUSION: High blood glucose levels at admission were associated with worse acute stroke mortality outcomes. The constituents of the SOAR stroke score were good at predicting mortality after stroke.

Pre-Stroke Modified Rankin Scale: Evaluation of Validity, Prognostic Accuracy, and Association with Treatment.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was designed to measure poststroke recovery but is often used to describe pre-stroke disability. We sought to evaluate three aspects of pre-stroke mRS: validity as a measure of pre-stroke disability; prognostic accuracy and association of pre-stroke mRS scores, and process of care. METHODS: We used data from a large, UK clinical registry. For analysis of validity, we compared pre-stroke mRS against other markers of pre-stroke function (age, comorbidity index, care needs). For analysis of prognostic accuracy, we described univariable and multivariable models comparing pre-stroke mRS and other prognostic variables against a variety of outcomes (early and late mortality, length of stay, institutionalization, incident complications). Finally, we described association of pre-stroke mRS and components of evidence-based stroke care (early neuroimaging, admission to stroke unit, assessment of swallow). RESULTS: We analyzed data of 2,491 stroke patients. Concurrent validity analyses suggested statistically significant, but modest correlations between pre-stroke mRS and chosen variables (rho >0.40; p < 0.0001 for all). Every point increase of pre-stroke mRS was associated with poorer outcomes for our prognostic variables (unadjusted p < 0.001). This association held when corrected for other covariates. For example, pre-stroke mRS 4-5 odds ratio (OR): 6.84 (95% CI: 4.24-11.03) for 1 year mortality compared to mRS 0 in adjusted model. There was a difference between pre-stroke mRS and treatment, with higher pre-stroke mRS more likely to receive evidence-based care. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that pre-stroke mRS has some concurrent validity and is a robust predictor of prognosis. This association is not explained by the influence of pre-stroke mRS on care pathways.

Time to Computerized Tomography Scan, Age, and Mortality in Acute Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Time to computerized tomography (CT) is important to institute appropriate and timely hyperacute management in stroke. We aimed to evaluate mortality outcomes in relation to age and time to CT scan. METHODS: We used routinely collected data in 8 National Health Service trusts in East of England between September 2008 and April 2011. Stroke cases were prospectively identified and confirmed. Odds ratios (ORs) for unadjusted and adjusted models for age categories (<65, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) as well as time to CT categories (<90 minutes, ≥90 to <180 minutes, ≥180 minutes to 24 hours, and >24 hours) and in-hospital and early (<7 days) mortality outcomes were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 7693 patients (mean age 76.1 years, 50% male) included, 1151 (16%) died as inpatients and 336 (4%) died within 7 days. Older patients and those admitted from care home had a significantly longer time from admission until CT (P < .001). Patients who had earlier CT scans were admitted to stroke units more frequently (P < .001) but had higher in-patient (P < .001) and 7-day mortality (P < .001). Whereas older age was associated with increased odds of mortality outcomes, longer time to CT was associated with significantly reduced mortality within 7 days (corresponding ORs for the above time periods were 1.00, .61 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .39-.95], .39 [.24-.64], and .16 [.08-.33]) and in-hospital mortality (ORs 1.00, .86 [.64-1.15], .57 [.42-.78] and .71 [.52-.98]). CONCLUSIONS: Older age was associated with a significantly longer time to CT. However, using CT scan time as a benchmarking tool in stroke may have inherent limitations and does not appear to be a suitable quality marker.

Derivation and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Scale (Modified-Stroke Subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification, Age, and Prestroke Modified Rankin) to Predict Early Mortality in Acute Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The stroke subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, age, and prestroke modified Rankin (SOAR) score is a prognostic scale proposed for early mortality prediction after acute stroke. We aimed to evaluate whether including a measure of initial stroke severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and modified-SOAR [mSOAR] scores) would improve the prognostic accuracy. METHODS: Using Anglia Stroke and Heart Clinical Network data, 2008 to 2011, we assessed the performance of SOAR and mSOAR against in-hospital mortality using area under the receiver operating curve statistics. We externally validated the prognostic utility of SOAR and mSOAR using an independent cohort data set from Glasgow. We described calibration using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: A total of 1002 patients were included in the derivation cohort, and 105 (10.5%) died as inpatients. The area under the receiver operating curves for outcome of early mortality derived from the SOAR and mSOAR scores were 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.86), respectively (P=0.001). The external validation data set contained 1012 patients with stroke; of which, 121 (12.0%) patients died within 90 days. The mSOAR scores identified the risk of early mortality ranging from 3% to 42%. External validation of mSOAR score yielded an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.88) for outcome of early mortality. Calibration was good (P=0.70 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). CONCLUSIONS: Adding National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale data to create a modified-SOAR score improved prognostic utility in both derivation and validation data sets. The mSOAR may have clinical utility by using easily available data to predict mortality.

The shock index predicts acute mortality outcomes in stroke.

BACKGROUND: Shock index (SI) (ratio between heart rate and systolic blood pressure) has been shown to be associated with poor mortality outcomes in trauma and pneumonia; however it has yet to be examined in stroke. We aimed to examine the relationship between SI and acute outcomes of inpatient, 3-day and 7-day mortality in stroke. Secondly, we aimed to compare SI and systolic blood pressure (SBP) alone in predicting above outcomes. METHODS: Data from a multicentre prospective cohort study conducted between October 2009 and September 2012 in eight NHS trusts in East of England were analysed. The relationships between SI, SBP and study outcomes were assessed using multivariable logistic regression models using mid-quintile groups as the reference category. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the discriminating ability between the SI and SBP models. RESULTS: A total of 2121 stroke patients were included (47.4% men; mean age 77.10 (sd) 12.40) years. The lowest quintile of the SI, had an increased odds of 3-day and 7-day mortality, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.45 (95% CI:1.16-5.17) and 1.88 (1.01-3.49), respectively. Patients with the highest quintile of SI also had increased odds of in-patient, 3-day and 7-day mortality, AORs 1.85 (1.17-2.92), 2.18 (1.03-4.63) and 2.45 (1.34-4.49), respectively. Similarly, SBP had a U-shape relationship with mortality. All measures had an ROC area under the curve >0.8 but there was no difference in the discriminating ability between SI and SBP. CONCLUSIONS: SI at extremely high and low values appeared to predict stroke mortality and appears to be particularly useful in predicting very early (3-day) mortality.

Similarity of patient characteristics and outcomes in consecutive data collection on stroke admissions over one month compared to longer periods.

BACKGROUND: The usefulness of time-limited consecutive data collection compared to continuous consecutive data collection in conditions which show seasonal variations is unclear. The objective of this study is to assess whether one month of admission data can be representative of data collected over two years in the same hospitals. METHODS: We compared the baseline characteristics and discharge outcomes of stroke patients admitted in the first month (October 2009) of the Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study (ASCNES) with the routinely collected data over 2 years between September 2008 and April 2011 from the same 8 hospital trusts in the Anglia Stroke & Heart Clinical Network (AS&HCN) as well as seasonal cohorts from the same period. RESULTS: We included a total of 8715 stroke patients (October 2009 cohort of ASCNES (n = 308), full AS&HCN cohort (n = 8407 excluding October 2009)) as well as cohorts from different seasons. All cohorts had a similar median age. No significant differences were observed for pre-stroke residence, pre-stroke modified Rankin, weekend vs. weekday admission, time of admission, patients with atrial fibrillation, type of stroke, admission systolic blood pressure, use of thrombolysis (rTPA), in-patient mortality and discharge destination. There were statistically significant differences between cohorts with regard to Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke patients admitted in one month had largely indistinguishable characteristics and discharge outcomes to those admitted to the same trusts in three separate seasons and also over two years in this cohort.

The challenge of recruiting in primary care for a trial of telemonitoring in asthma: an observational study.

AIM: Achieving target recruitment in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is challenging. This paper compares our experience of recruiting for an RCT with the predictions made in our proposal. METHODS: Participating UK primary care practices searched their computer databases to identify patients (12 years and over) with asthma who may be poorly controlled. Postal invitations were sent to all patients identified. Respondees were prescreened by phone, to assess their asthma control and establish their mobile phone suitability. Potentially eligible patients were booked for a trial recruitment visit. RESULTS: We recruited 288 patients (2.4% of those invited) across 32 practices, with a total list size of 311,926 patients. This compares to our predicted recruitment of 312 patients from a population of 72,000 patients in six to eight practices. In addition to the recognized problem of poor response rates, the major challenges were insufficiently discriminating computer searches and incompatibilities between mobile phone handsets, networks and the asthma application. CONCLUSION: Our data have implications for clinicians, managers, and researchers in primary care. Researchers in this area may wish to consider our data when designing their recruitment strategies. Improved coding of asthma morbidity data in clinical practice would ease identification of poorly controlled patients, both for clinical interventions and recruitment to trials. If telehealth is to become mainstream, there needs to be standardization of applications, operating platforms, and network capabilities.

Leukotriene antagonists as first-line or add-on asthma-controller therapy.

BACKGROUND: Most randomized trials of treatment for asthma study highly selected patients under idealized conditions. METHODS: We conducted two parallel, multicenter, pragmatic trials to evaluate the real-world effectiveness of a leukotriene-receptor antagonist (LTRA) as compared with either an inhaled glucocorticoid for first-line asthma-controller therapy or a long-acting beta(2)-agonist (LABA) as add-on therapy in patients already receiving inhaled glucocorticoid therapy. Eligible primary care patients 12 to 80 years of age had impaired asthma-related quality of life (Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire [MiniAQLQ] score ≤6) or inadequate asthma control (Asthma Control Questionnaire [ACQ] score ≥1). We randomly assigned patients to 2 years of open-label therapy, under the care of their usual physician, with LTRA (148 patients) or an inhaled glucocorticoid (158 patients) in the first-line controller therapy trial and LTRA (170 patients) or LABA (182 patients) added to an inhaled glucocorticoid in the add-on therapy trial. RESULTS: Mean MiniAQLQ scores increased by 0.8 to 1.0 point over a period of 2 years in both trials. At 2 months, differences in the MiniAQLQ scores between the two treatment groups met our definition of equivalence (95% confidence interval [CI] for an adjusted mean difference, -0.3 to 0.3). At 2 years, mean MiniAQLQ scores approached equivalence, with an adjusted mean difference between treatment groups of -0.11 (95% CI, -0.35 to 0.13) in the first-line controller therapy trial and of -0.11 (95% CI, -0.32 to 0.11) in the add-on therapy trial. Exacerbation rates and ACQ scores did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Study results at 2 months suggest that LTRA was equivalent to an inhaled glucocorticoid as first-line controller therapy and to LABA as add-on therapy for diverse primary care patients. Equivalence was not proved at 2 years. The interpretation of results of pragmatic research may be limited by the crossover between treatment groups and lack of a placebo group. (Funded by the National Coordinating Centre for Health Technology Assessment U.K. and others; Controlled Clinical Trials number, ISRCTN99132811.).

Evaluation of stroke services in Anglia Stroke Clinical Network to examine the variation in acute services and stroke outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the third leading cause of death in developed countries and the leading cause of long-term disability worldwide. A series of national stroke audits in the UK highlighted the differences in stroke care between hospitals. The study aims to describe variation in outcomes following stroke and to identify the characteristics of services that are associated with better outcomes, after accounting for case mix differences and individual prognostic factors. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a cohort study in eight acute NHS trusts within East of England, with at least one year of follow-up after stroke. The study population will be a systematically selected representative sample of patients admitted with stroke during the study period, recruited within each hospital. We will collect individual patient data on prognostic characteristics, health care received, outcomes and costs of care and we will also record relevant characteristics of each provider organisation. The determinants of one year outcome including patient reported outcome will be assessed statistically with proportional hazards regression models. Self (or proxy) completed EuroQol (EQ-5D) questionnaires will measure quality of life at baseline and follow-up for cost utility analyses. DISCUSSION: This study will provide observational data about health service factors associated with variations in patient outcomes and health care costs following hospital admission for acute stroke. This will form the basis for future RCTs by identifying promising health service interventions, assessing the feasibility of recruiting and following up trial patients, and provide evidence about frequency and variances in outcomes, and intra-cluster correlation of outcomes, for sample size calculations. The results will inform clinicians, public, service providers, commissioners and policy makers to drive further improvement in health services which will bring direct benefit to the patients.

Cost effectiveness of leukotriene receptor antagonists versus inhaled corticosteroids for initial asthma controller therapy: a pragmatic trial.

BACKGROUND: Information is lacking on the relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness--in a primary-care setting--of leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRAs) as an alternative to inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) for initial asthma controller therapy. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost effectiveness of LTRAs versus ICS for patients initiating asthma controller therapy. METHODS: An economic evaluation was conducted alongside a 2-year, pragmatic, randomized controlled trial set in 53 primary-care practices in the UK. Patients aged 12-80 years with asthma and symptoms requiring regular anti-inflammatory therapy (n = 326) were randomly assigned to LTRAs (n = 162) or ICS (n = 164). The main outcome measures were the incremental costs per point improvement in the Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire, per point improvement in the Asthma Control Questionnaire and per QALY gained from the UK NHS and societal perspectives. RESULTS: Over 2 years, resource use was similar between the two treatment groups, but the cost to society per patient was significantly higher for the LTRA group, at pounds sterling 711 versus pounds sterling 433 for the ICS group (adjusted difference pounds sterling 204; 95% CI 74, 308) [year 2005 values]. Cost differences were driven primarily by differences in prescription drug costs, particularly study drug costs. There was a nonsignificant (imputed, adjusted) difference between treatment groups, favouring ICS, in QALYs gained at 2 years of -0.073 (95% CI -0.143, 0.010). Therapy with LTRAs was, on average, a dominated strategy, and, at a threshold for willingness to pay of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY gained, the probability of LTRAs being cost effective compared with ICS was approximately 3% from both societal and NHS perspectives. CONCLUSIONS: There is a very low probability of LTRAs being cost effective in the UK, at 2005 values, compared with ICS for initial asthma controller therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UK National Research Register N0547145240; Controlled Clinical Trials ISRCTN99132811.

Cost effectiveness of leukotriene receptor antagonists versus long-acting beta-2 agonists as add-on therapy to inhaled corticosteroids for asthma: a pragmatic trial.

BACKGROUND: Information is lacking on the relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness--in a real-life primary-care setting--of leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRAs) and long-acting beta2 adrenergic receptor agonists (beta2 agonists) as add-on therapy for patients whose asthma symptoms are not controlled on low-dose inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost effectiveness of LTRAs compared with long-acting beta2 agonists as add-on therapy for patients whose asthma symptoms are not controlled on low-dose ICS. METHODS: An economic evaluation was conducted alongside a 2-year, pragmatic, randomized controlled trial set in 53 primary-care practices in the UK. Patients aged 12-80 years with asthma insufficiently controlled with ICS (n = 361) were randomly assigned to add-on LTRAs (n = 176) or long-acting beta2 agonists (n = 185). The main outcome measures were the incremental cost per point improvement in the Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (MiniAQLQ), per point improvement in the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and per QALY gained from perspectives of the UK NHS and society. RESULTS: Over 2 years, the societal cost per patient receiving LTRAs was pounds sterling 1157 versus pounds sterling 952 for long-acting beta2 agonists, a (significant, adjusted) increase of pounds sterling 214 (95% CI 2, 411) [year 2005 values]. Patients receiving LTRAs experienced a non-significant incremental gain of 0.009 QALYs (95% CI -0.077, 0.103). The incremental cost per QALY gained from the societal (NHS) perspective was pounds sterling 22,589 (pounds sterling 11,919). Uncertainty around this point estimate suggested that, given a maximum willingness to pay of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY gained, the probability that LTRAs are a cost-effective alternative to long-acting beta2 agonists as add-on therapy was approximately 52% from both societal and NHS perspectives. CONCLUSIONS: On balance, these results marginally favour the repositioning of LTRAs as a cost-effective alternative to long-acting beta2 agonists as add-on therapy to ICS for asthma. However, there is much uncertainty surrounding the incremental cost effectiveness because of similarity of clinical benefit and broad confidence intervals for differences in healthcare costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UK National Research Register N0547145240; Controlled Clinical Trials ISRCTN99132811.