Drivers and potential distribution of anthrax occurrence and incidence at national and sub-county levels across Kenya from 2006 to 2020 using INLA.

Anthrax is caused by, Bacillus anthracis, a soil-borne bacterium that infects grazing animals. Kenya reported a sharp increase in livestock anthrax cases from 2005, with only 12% of the sub-counties (decentralised administrative units used by Kenyan county governments to facilitate service provision) accounting for almost a third of the livestock cases. Recent studies of the spatial extent of B. anthracis suitability across Kenya have used approaches that cannot capture the underlying spatial and temporal dependencies in the surveillance data. To address these limitations, we apply the first Bayesian approach using R-INLA to analyse a long-term dataset of livestock anthrax case data, collected from 2006 to 2020 in Kenya. We develop a spatial and a spatiotemporal model to investigate the distribution and socio-economic drivers of anthrax occurrence and incidence at the national and sub-county level. The spatial model was robust to geographically based cross validation and had a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI 65-75) against withheld data. Alarmingly, the spatial model predicted high intensity of anthrax across the Northern counties (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) comprising pastoralists who are often economically and politically marginalized, and highly predisposed to a greater risk of anthrax. The spatiotemporal model showed a positive link between livestock anthrax risk and the total human population and the number of exotic dairy cattle, and a negative association with the human population density, livestock producing households, and agricultural land area. Public health programs aimed at reducing human-animal contact, improving access to healthcare, and increasing anthrax awareness, should prioritize these endemic regions.

Influence of trypanocidal therapy on the haematology of vervet monkeys experimentally infected with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense.

The aim of this study was to characterise the sequential haematological changes in vervet monkeys infected with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and subsequently treated with sub-curative diminazene aceturate (DA) and curative melarsoprol (MelB) trypanocidal drugs. Fourteen vervet monkeys, on a serial timed-kill pathogenesis study, were infected intravenously with 10(4) trypanosomes of a stabilate T. b. rhodesiense KETRI 2537. They were treated with DA at 28 days post infection (dpi) and with MelB following relapse of infection at 140 dpi. Blood samples were obtained from the monkeys weekly, and haematology conducted using a haematological analyser. All the monkeys developed a disease associated with macrocytic hypochromic anaemia characterised by a reduction in erythrocytes (RBC), haemoglobin (HB), haematocrit (HCT), mean cell volume (MCV), platelet count (PLT), and an increase in the red cell distribution width (RDW) and mean platelet volume (MPV). The clinical disease was characteristic of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) with a pre-patent period of 3 days. Treatment with DA cleared trypanosomes from both the blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The parasites relapsed first in the CSF and later in the blood. This treatment normalised the RBC, HCT, HB, PLT, MCV, and MPV achieving the pre-infection values within two weeks while RDW took up to 6 weeks to attain pre-infection levels after treatment. Most of the parameters were later characterised by fluctuations, and declined at one to two weeks before relapse of trypanosomes in the haemolymphatic circulation. Following MelB treatment at 140 dpi, most values recovered within two weeks and stabilised at pre-infection levels, during the 223 days post treatment monitoring period. It is concluded that DA and MelB treatments cause similar normalising changes in the haematological profiles of monkeys infected with T. b. rhodesiense, indicating the efficacy of the drugs. The infection related changes in haematology parameters, further characterise the vervet monkey as an optimal induced animal model of HAT. Serial monitoring of these parameters can be used as an adjunct in the diagnosis and prognosis of the disease outcome in the vervet monkey model.

Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense transmitted by a single tsetse fly bite in vervet monkeys as a model of human African trypanosomiasis.

We have investigated the pathogenicity of tsetse (Glossina pallidipes)-transmitted cloned strains of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in vervet monkeys. Tsetse flies were confirmed to have mature trypanosome infections by xenodiagnosis, after which nine monkeys were infected via the bite of a single infected fly. Chancres developed in five of the nine (55.6%) monkeys within 4 to 8 days post infection (dpi). All nine individuals were successfully infected, with a median pre-patent period of 4 (range = 4-10) days, indicating that trypanosomes migrated from the site of fly bite to the systemic circulation rapidly and independently of the development of the chancre. The time lag to detection of parasites in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was a median 16 (range = 8-40) days, marking the onset of central nervous system (CNS, late) stage disease. Subsequently, CSF white cell numbers increased above the pre-infection median count of 2 (range = 0-9) cells/microl, with a positive linear association between their numbers and that of CSF trypanosomes. Haematological changes showed that the monkeys experienced an early microcytic-hypochromic anaemia and severe progressive thrombocytopaenia. Despite a 3-fold increase in granulocyte numbers by 4 dpi, leucopaenia occurred early (8 dpi) in the monkey infection, determined mainly by reductions in lymphocyte numbers. Terminally, leucocytosis was observed in three of nine (33%) individuals. The duration of infection was a median of 68 (range = 22-120) days. Strain and individual differences were observed in the severity of the clinical and clinical pathology findings, with two strains (KETRI 3741 and 3801) producing a more acute disease than the other two (KETRI 3804 and 3928). The study shows that the fly-transmitted model accurately mimics the human disease and is therefore a suitable gateway to understanding human African trypanosomiasis (HAT; sleeping sickness).

Proinflammatory cytokine expression in the early phase of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense infection in vervet monkeys (Cercopithecus aethiops).

A vervet monkey model of trypanosomiasis was used to study inflammatory cytokine responses in serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Gamma interferon levels were transiently up-regulated in serum between days 6 and 8 of infection, followed by a sustained up-regulation of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) and soluble TNF receptor 1. At no time were these cytokines detectable in the CSF.