Evaluation of multi-directional speed qualities throughout adolescence in youth soccer: The non-linear nature of transfer.

Training and assessment of agility is often prioritised by soccer coaches and practitioners aiming to develop multi-directional speed. Although the importance of agility is advocated throughout childhood and adolescence, limited data evidence agility performance at different stages of adolescence. The purpose of this study was to examine differences in multi-directional speed performance in youth soccer players spanning an entire soccer academy. A total of 86 male junior-elite soccer players volunteered to participate. Anthropometric data were collected, alongside performance data from a battery of physical tests including sprinting, jumping, change of direction, reaction time, and agility. Bayesian models using log-likelihoods from posterior simulations of parameter values displayed linear or curvilinear relationships between both chronological and biological age and performance in all tests other than agility and reaction time. For agility and reaction time tests, performance improved until ~14 years of age or the estimated age of peak height velocity whereby arrested development in performance was observed. Our results demonstrate that while most performance skills improve as chronological or biological age increases, measures of agility and reaction time may not. These findings support the notion that agility performance is complex and multifaceted, eliciting unique, challenging physical demands and non-linear development.

'At risk' waist-to-height ratio cut-off points recently adopted by NICE and US Department of Defense will unfairly penalize shorter adults. What is the solution?

OBJECTIVES: To a) demonstrate that adopting 'at risk' waist-to-height ratio (WHTR) cut-off points, recently approved by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the United States Department of Defense (USDoD), will unfairly penalize shorter individuals and will be too lenient for taller individuals, b) to confirm that waist circumference (WC) of a sample of US service personnel, scales to approximately height0.5, supporting the notion that WC, to be independent of height (HT), should be normalized using WC.HT-0.5 (WHT•5R), and c) to identify the WHT•5R cut-off points that will reduce or eliminate this unwanted bias. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We employed a three independent cross-sectional sample design. All n = 58,742 participants underwent anthropometric assessment of body mass, stature and waist circumference. RESULTS: The allometric power-law model WC=a.HT^b for US service personnel identified the height exponent to be b= 0.418 (95 % CI 0.251-0.585), confirming that the simple body-shape index for WC to be independent of HT, should be WC.HT-0.5. Chi-square tests of independence and for linear trend confirmed that by adopting WHTR cut-off point, shorter individuals (both service personnel and non-service participants) will be over penalized (classified as being 'at risk'). New WC independent-of-height ratio cut-off points were found to resolve this problem. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting WHTR cut-off thresholds (either 0.5 or 0.55) will lead to shorter adults being unfairly classified as being 'at risk' in terms of their central adiposity and general health status. Adopting new WHT•5R cut-off point thresholds were found to greatly reduce or eliminate this bias.

A Cross-Sectional Study Exploring the Physical Activity Levels of Afghans and Other South Asian Youth in the UK.

Introduction: Participating in regular physical activity (PA) has numerous benefits, such as reducing obesity, chronic degenerative conditions, and depression. Despite many health-related benefits, physical inactivity is increasing in young people worldwide, especially in ethnic minority groups, such as British South Asians (BSAs). The aim of this study was to explore the PA levels of BSAs, specifically focusing on youth from Afghan, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and Indian groups. Methods: A total of 191 (Afghans N = 44; Bangladeshi N = 39; Indian N = 56, Pakistani N = 52) youth from the West Midlands (UK) participated in this study (mean age 15.4 ± 0.5). The International Physical Activity Questionnaire­Short Form was used to measure PA levels. Data were modelled using a Bayesian approach to determine differences in PA levels. Results: The results indicated that 88.5% Afghans, 80% Bangladeshi, 78.6% Indians and 63% Pakistani reported engaging in <30 min of PA per day. Additionally, boys were more active than girls across all ethnic groups. Discussion: This study highlighted an alarmingly low proportion of young people from each BSA ethnic group meeting the PA guidelines. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to explore and compare PA levels of the young British Afghan population, thus contributing novel findings to the area of BSA PA. Conclusion: Overall, the vast majority of BSA young people failed to meet the recommended PA guidelines of 60 min per day. Future research could utilise objective methods, such as Global Positioning System, pedometers and accelerometery to track and monitor PA levels, and could adopt an ecological approach to explore determinants of PA within each ethnic and gender group.

Agreement and relationship between measures of absolute and relative intensity during walking: A systematic review with meta-regression.

INTRODUCTION: A metabolic equivalent (MET) is one of the most common methods used to objectively quantify physical activity intensity. Although the MET provides an 'objective' measure, it does not account for inter-individual differences in cardiorespiratory fitness. In contrast, 'relative' measures of physical activity intensity, such as heart rate reserve (HRR), do account for cardiorespiratory fitness. The purpose of this systematic review with meta-regression was to compare measures of absolute and relative physical activity intensity collected during walking. METHODS: A systematic search of four databases (SPORTDiscus, Medline, Academic Search Premier and CINAHL) was completed. Keyword searches were: (i) step* OR walk* OR strid* OR "physical activity"; (ii) absolute OR "absolute intensity" OR mets OR metabolic equivalent OR actigraph* OR acceleromet*; (iii) relative OR "relative intensity" OR "heart rate" OR "heart rate reserve" OR "VO2 reserve" OR VO2* OR "VO2 uptake" OR HRmax* OR metmax. Categories (i) to (iii) were combined using 'AND;' with studies related to running excluded. A Bayesian regression was conducted to quantify the relationship between METs and %HRR, with Bayesian logistic regression conducted to examine the classification agreement between methods. A modified Downs and Black scale incorporating 13 questions relative to cross-sectional study design was used to assess quality and risk of bias in all included studies. RESULTS: A total of 15 papers were included in the systematic review. A comparison of means between absolute (METs) and relative (%HRR, %HRmax, %VO2R, %VO2max, HRindex) values in 8 studies identified agreement in how intensity was classified (light, moderate or vigorous) in 60% of the trials. We received raw data from three authors, incorporating 3 studies and 290 participants. A Bayesian random intercept logistic regression was conducted to examine the agreement between relative and absolute intensity, showing agreement in 43% of all trials. Two studies had identical relative variables (%HRR) totalling 240 participants included in the Bayesian random intercept regression. The best performing model was a log-log regression, which showed that for every 1% increase in METs, %HRR increased by 1.12% (95% CI: 1.10-1.14). Specifically, the model predicts at the lower bound of absolute moderate intensity (3 METs), %HRR was estimated to be 33% (95%CI: 18-57) and at vigorous intensity (6 METs) %HRR was estimated to be 71% (38-100). CONCLUSION: This study highlights the discrepancies between absolute and relative measures of physical activity intensity during walking with large disagreement observed between methods and large variation in %HRR at a given MET. Consequently, health professionals should be aware of this lack of agreement between absolute and relative measures. Moreover, if we are to move towards a more individualised approach to exercise prescription and monitoring as advocated, relative intensity could be more highly prioritised.

The Dose-Response Relationship Between Training-Load Measures and Changes in Force-Time Components During a Countermovement Jump in Male Academy Soccer Players.

PURPOSE: To manage physical performance in soccer, practitioners monitor the training load (TL) and the resulting fatigue. A method frequently used to assess performance is the countermovement jump (CMJ). However, the efficacy of CMJ to detect fatigue from soccer matches and training remains uncertain, as does the relationship between TL and change in CMJ performance. The aims of the present study were 2-fold. One was to observe the changes of CMJ force-time components and jump height (JH). The second was to examine dose-response relationships between TL measures and CMJ over a 6-week preseason. METHODS: Twelve male academy soccer players (17 [1] y, 71.2 [5.6] kg, and 178 [5.8] cm) were recruited. Daily changes in CMJ were assessed against baseline scores established before preseason training, along with internal and external TL measures. A series of Bayesian random intercept models were fitted to determine probability of change above/below zero and greater than the coefficient of variation established at baseline. Jumps were categorized into match day minus (MD-) categories where the higher number indicated more time from a competitive match. RESULTS: JH was lowest on MD - 3 (28 cm) and highest on MD - 4 (34.6 cm), with the probability of change from baseline coefficient of variation highly uncertain (41% and 61%, respectively). Changes to force-time components were more likely on MD - 3 (21%-99%), which provided less uncertainty than JH. Bayes R2 ranged from .22 to .57 between TL measures and all CMJ parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Force-time components were more likely to change than JH. Practitioners should also be cautious when manipulating TL measures to influence CMJ performance.

NICE's recent guidelines on "the size of your waist" unfairly penalizes shorter people.

The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) has just released its latest guidelines to assess and predict health risk, such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension or cardiovascular disease. Their latest advice is "Keep the size of your waist to less than half of your height". We believe this advice is flawed and will seriously and unfairly penalize shorter people and lull taller people into a false sense of security. In this short communication, we provide this evidence. We consider this a serious oversight by NICE and feel strongly that this evidence needs to be made available in the public domain.

The effect of bio-banding on technical and tactical indicators of talent identification in academy soccer players.

AIM: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of bio-banding on technical and tactical markers of talent identification in 11- to 14-year-old academy soccer players. METHODS: Using a repeated measures design, 92 players were bio-banded using percentage of estimated adult stature attainment (week 1), maturity-offset (week 2) and a mixed-maturity method (week 3). All players contested five maturity (mis)matched small-sided games with technical and tactical variables measured. Data were analysed using a series of Bayesian hierarchical models, fitted with different response distributions and different random and fixed effect structures. RESULTS: Despite differences during maturity-matched bio-banding for post-peak height velocity players, very few tactical differences were evident during the remaining maturity-matched and mis-matched fixtures for both banding methods. In fact, the results showed no consistent differences across both banding methods for practitioner and video analysis-derived technical performance characteristics during maturity matched and mis-matched fixtures. Both bio-banding methods explained similar levels of variance across the measured variables. CONCLUSION: Maturity-matched bio-banding had some effect on both technical and tactical characteristics of players during maturity-matched bio-banded formats. That said, this trend remained during maturity mis-matched bio-banded formats which restricts the conclusions that can be made regarding the effectiveness of bio-banding to manipulate technical and tactical measures in academy soccer players.

The ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on perceived physical activity, physical function and mood of older adults in the U.K: A follow-up study (March 2020-June 2021).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) and its variants, continue to spread globally more than two years after the discovery of the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. Following the onset of COVID-19, fluctuating restrictions have likely impacted the daily lives of older adults living in the United Kingdom (UK). Subsequently, the longer term effects of COVID-19 on physical activity levels, perceived physical function and mood of older adults are unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to follow a group of older adult's living in the UK for one year, to monitor physical activity levels, perceived physical function and mood. A longitudinal, mixed-methods, observational study was conducted using self-administered, online surveys at 3-month intervals between March 2020 and June 2021. A total of 100 participants (46 males [age: 76 ± 5 years] and 54 females [age:74 ± 4 years]) completed all surveys. Bayesian analysis allowed calculation of direct probabilities whilst incorporating our prior knowledge. Throughout this period, older adults maintained or increased their pre-lockdown physical activity levels despite a decrease in intensity of effort of physical activity tasks, whilst sitting time increased at two of the follow-up time-points. Furthermore, perceived physical function decreased (ps = 91.78%;>1.21 AU) and mood undulated in a pattern that reflected the tightening and easing of restrictions. Despite total physical activity being maintained, perceived physical function decreased by a small but clinically meaningful margin.

Differences in Performance Assessments Conducted Indoors and Outdoors in Professional Cyclists.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between typical performance tests among elite and professional cyclists when conducted indoors and outdoors. METHODS: Fourteen male cyclists of either UCI (Union Cycliste Internationale) Continental or UCI World Tour level (mean [SD] age 20.9 [2.8] y, mass 68.13 [7.25] kg) were recruited to participate in 4 test sessions (2 indoors and 2 outdoors) within a 14-day period, consisting of maximum mean power testing for durations of 60, 180, 300, and 840 seconds. RESULTS: Across all maximum mean power test durations, the trimmed mean power was higher outdoors compared with indoor testing (P < .05). Critical power was higher outdoors compared with indoors (+19 W, P = .005), while no difference was observed for the work capacity above critical power. Self-selected cadence was 6 rpm higher indoors versus outdoors for test durations of 60 (P = .038) and 300 seconds (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that maximal power testing in indoor and outdoor settings cannot be used interchangeably. Furthermore, there was substantial individual variation in the difference between indoor and outdoor maximum mean powers across all time durations, further highlighting the difficulty of translating results from indoor testing to outdoor on an individual level in elite populations.

Custom-Fitted Compression Garments Enhance Recovery From Muscle Damage in Rugby Players.

ABSTRACT: Brown, F, Jeffries, O, Gissane, C, Howatson, G, van Someren, K, Pedlar, C, Myers, T, and Hill, JA. Custom-fitted compression garments enhance recovery from muscle damage in rugby players. J Strength Cond Res 36(1): 212-219, 2022-to evaluate the effects of custom-fitted compression garments (CG) on recovery from muscle damage in rugby players. Forty-five players were tested for lower-body strength, power, and indices of muscle damage before completing a damaging protocol (20 × 20-m sprints with 5-m deceleration, 100 drop jumps). Players were randomly assigned to wear either custom-fitted (CF, n = 13), or standard-sized CG (SSG, n = 16), or to receive sham ultrasound therapy (CON, n = 16) immediately after exercise. Players were retested immediately, then after 24 and 48 hours. Strength recovery was significantly different between groups (F = 2.7, p = 0.02), with only CF recovering to baseline values by 48 hours (p = 0.973). Time × condition effects were also apparent for creatine kinase activity (χ2 = 30.4, p < 0.001) and midthigh girth (F = 3.7, p = 0.005), with faster recovery apparent in CF compared with both CON and SSG (p < 0.05). Custom-fitted CG improved strength recovery and indices of muscle damage in rugby players, compared with controls and standard-sized garments. Athletes and coaches would be advised to use appropriately fitted CG to enhance strength recovery after damaging exercise.

How Should Adult Handgrip Strength Be Normalized? Allometry Reveals New Insights and Associated Reference Curves.

INTRODUCTION: Handgrip strength (HGS) is an important indicator of health. Because HGS is strongly associated with body size, most investigators normalize HGS for some measure of body size as a more sensitive indicator of strength within a population. We aimed to 1) identify the optimal body size dimension to remove (normalize) HGS for differences in body size among adults and 2) generate norm-referenced centiles for HGS using the identified body size dimension. METHODS: Data were from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a representative sample of the US noninstitutionalized civilian population. Exclusions resulted in a final sample of 8690 adults 20 yr and older. HGS was measured using handheld dynamometry. Body size dimensions included body mass, height, and waist circumference. The most appropriate dimension(s) associated with HGS is identified using allometry. We fitted centile curves for normalized HGS using the generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape. RESULTS: Findings suggest that neither body mass nor body mass index is appropriate to normalize HGS. Incorporating all three body size dimensions of body mass, height, and waist circumference, or the reduced subsets of body mass and height, or height alone, suggests that the most appropriate normalizing (body size) dimension associated with HGS should be a cross-sectional or surface area measure of an individual's body size (i.e., L2, where L is a linear dimension of body size). Given that height was also identified as the signally best body size dimension associated with HGS, we recommend HGS be normalized by height2 (i.e., HGS/HT2). Centile curves for HGS/HT2 by age group and gender were therefore provided. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling adult HGS by height2 may help normalize strength for population-based research.

Comparing individual and population differences in minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production slopes using centile growth curves and log-linear allometry.

Identifying vulnerable groups and/or individuals' cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is an important challenge for clinicians/researchers alike. To quantify CRF accurately, the assessment of several variables is now standard practice including maximal oxygen uptake (V'CO2 ) and ventilatory efficiency, the latter assessed using the minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (V'E/V'CO2 ) slope. Recently, reference values (centiles) for V'E/V'CO2 slopes for males and females aged 20 to 80 have been published, using cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) data (treadmill protocol) from the Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise National Database (FRIEND Registry). In the current observational study we provide centile curves for the FRIEND Registry V'E/V'CO2 slopes, fitted using the generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), to provide individuals with a more precise estimate of where their V'E/V'CO2 slopes fall within the population. We also confirm that by adopting allometric models (incorporating a log transformation), the resulting ANCOVAs provided more normal and homoscedastic residuals, with superior goodness-of-fit using the Akaike information criterion (AIC)=14 671 (compared with traditional ANCOVA's AIC=15 008) that confirms allometric models are vastly superior to traditional ANCOVA models. In conclusion, providing sex-by-age centile curves rather than referring to reference tables for ventilatory efficiency (V'E/V'CO2 slopes) will provide more accurate estimates of where an individual's particular V'E/V'CO2 slope falls within the population. Also, by adopting allometric models researchers are more likely to identify real and valid inferences when analysing population/group differences in V'E/V'CO2 slopes.

Progression from youth to professional soccer: A longitudinal study of successful and unsuccessful academy graduates.

To optimize use of available resources, professional academies develop strategies to assess, monitor, and evaluate players as they progress through adolescence toward adulthood. However, few published reports exist using longitudinal study designs to examine performance throughout adolescence and the transition from youth to professional soccer. We examined differences in the age of player recruitment alongside longitudinal performance differences on field-based fitness tests of successful vs. unsuccessful graduates across the entire age spectrum recruited by a professional soccer academy. Altogether, 537 youth soccer players volunteered to participate. We recorded the age of recruitment, biannual fitness test performance, and subsequent success in attaining a senior professional contract at the club across a period of 12 years. Only 53 (10%) of players were successful in obtaining a professional contract, with 68% of players who became professional being recruited at 12 years of age or older. Individuals recruited at an earlier age did not display a higher probability of success in attaining a professional contract. Bayesian regression models reported a consistent interaction between age and group for data on all performance measures. Moreover, "successful" academy graduates only physically outperformed their "unsuccessful" counterparts from age ~13-14 years onward, with either no differences in performance, or performance on physical fitness tests favoring "unsuccessful" players prior to this age. Findings suggest that high achievers during childhood and early adolescence may not develop into successful senior professionals, raising concerns about the predictive utility of talent identification models.

Are Early or Late Maturers Likely to Be Fitter in the General Population?

The present study aims to identify the optimal body-size/shape and maturity characteristics associated with superior fitness test performances having controlled for body-size, sex, and chronological-age differences. The sample consisted of 597 Tunisian children (396 boys and 201 girls) aged 8 to 15 years. Three sprint speeds recorded at 10, 20 and 30 m; two vertical and two horizontal jump tests; a change-of-direction and a handgrip-strength tests, were assessed during physical-education classes. Allometric modelling was used to identify the benefit of being an early or late maturer. Findings showed that being tall and light is the ideal shape to be successful at most physical fitness tests, but the height-to-weight "shape" ratio seems to be test-dependent. Having controlled for body-size/shape, sex, and chronological age, the model identified maturity-offset as an additional predictor. Boys who go earlier/younger through peak-height-velocity (PHV) outperform those who go at a later/older age. However, most of the girls' physical-fitness tests peaked at the age at PHV and decline thereafter. Girls whose age at PHV was near the middle of the age range would appear to have an advantage compared to early or late maturers. These findings have important implications for talent scouts and coaches wishing to recruit children into their sports/athletic clubs.

The effect of bio-banding on physical and psychological indicators of talent identification in academy soccer players.

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of bio-banding on indicators of talent identification in academy soccer players. Seventy-two 11 to 14-year-old soccer players were bio-banded using percentage of estimated adult stature attainment (week 1), maturity-offset (week 2) or a mixed-maturity method (week 3). Players contested five maturity (mis)matched small-sided games with physical and psychological determinants measured. Data were analysed using a series of Bayesian hierarchical models, fitted with different response distributions and different random and fixed effect structures. Few between-maturity differences existed for physical measures. Pre-peak height velocity (PHV) and post-PHV players differed in PlayerLoadTM (anterior-posterior and medial-lateral) having effect sizes above our criterion value. Estimated adult stature attainment explained more of the variance in eight of the physical variables and showed the greatest individual differences between maturity groups across all psychological variables. Pre-PHV and post-PHV players differed in positive attitude, confidence, competitiveness, total psychological score (effect sizes = 0.43-0.69), and session rating of perceived exertion. The maturity-offset method outperformed the estimated adult stature attainment method in all psychological variables. Maturity-matched bio-banding had limited effect on physical variables across all players while enhancing a number of psychological variables considered key for talent identification in pre-PHV players.

The dose-response relationship between training-load measures and aerobic fitness in elite academy soccer players.

The aim of the current study is to examine the dose-response relationships between training load (TL) measures and the consequent changes in aerobic fitness. Data were collected over the 6-week pre-season period in elite youth soccer players. Participants completed a lactate threshold test to identify changes in treadmill speed at 2 mmol · l-1 (S2) and 4 mmol · l-1 (S4). Internal TL was quantified with the following training impulse (TRIMP) methods: Banister TRIMP, Edwards TRIMP, Lucia TRIMP, individual TRIMP (iTRIMP) and rate of perceived exertion was also collected. External TL measures were total distance, PlayerLoad, high speed running (14.4-19.8 km · h-1), very high-speed running (19.8-25.2 km · h-1) and maximal sprint distance (>25.2 km · h-1). Individual high-speed distance was derived from each participants treadmill speed at S4. Different Bayesian regression models were run with different likelihood functions. The best-fitting models with both the lowest out-of-sample prediction error and the highest variance explained (R2) were used. iTRIMP had the strongest relationships with changes in S2 (r = 0.93, R2 = 0.90) and S4 (r = 0.88, R2 = 0.82). Explained variance ranged from 10%-69% and 11%-38% for all other internal TL measures and external measures, respectively. In summary, the iTRIMP method demonstrates a dose-response relationship with changes in aerobic fitness in elite youth soccer players.

The influence of COVID-19 measures in the United Kingdom on physical activity levels, perceived physical function and mood in older adults: A survey-based observational study.

In March 2020, the spreading Coronavirus (COVID-19) prompted the United Kingdom government to introduce a societal shutdown, accompanied by self-isolation and social-distancing measures to reduce virus transmission. In doing so, opportunities for physical activity were likely reduced, potentially causing detrimental effects to older adults. Therefore, the present study investigated the influence of the initial six weeks of lockdown on physical activity levels, perceived physical function and mood in older adults. A cross-sectional, mixed-methods, observational study was conducted using self-administered, fortnightly online surveys throughout the UK between 21st March-4 May 2020. A total of 117 participants (52 males [age: 76 ± 4 years] and 65 females [age: 76 ± 4 years]) completed all surveys. Despite lockdown restrictions, this group of older adults maintained their pre-lockdown physical activity levels, but also increased their self-reported sedentary time. Subsequently, perception of physical function was maintained across lockdown. With regards to mood; the only strong evidence for an increase in depression was for males (ps = 95.35%; >0.3 AU), although self-reported levels of depression were similar between sexes at week six. Given the link between sedentary behaviour and negative health outcomes in older adults, strategies to reduce sedentariness during the COVID-19 pandemic are required.

The Influence of Recruitment Age and Anthropometric and Physical Characteristics on the Development Pathway of English Academy Football Players.

PURPOSE: To investigate the influence of recruitment age on retention and release across the development pathway and to explore the influence of anthropometric and physical characteristics on retention and release at different ages throughout the development pathway and the likelihood of obtaining a professional contract. METHODS: Following receipt of ethics approval, a cross-sectional study tracking 4 cohorts of players over 5 years assessed 76 male youth football players (11-16 y) from an English football academy on 3 occasions annually in anthropometry, countermovement jump height, and linear (30 and 15 m) and multidirectional sprint time. Players were categorized based on their start and release date. RESULTS: Starting early (ie, before U12) in an academy was a key indicator of obtaining a professional contract, representing 87% of the players signed. Bayesian regression models suggest that the majority of differences in physical characteristics between players that were released and retained are trivial, small, and/or uncertain. Players who attained a professional contract at 18 had slower 15- and 30-m sprint times at U13 to U15 (P > 0 = .87-.99), slower multidirectional sprint times at U14 (P > 0 = .99), and lower countermovement jump height at U13 to U16 (P > 0 = .88-.99) compared with players who did not gain a contract. CONCLUSION: Players recruited early have an increased likelihood of gaining a professional contract. Physical assessments lack utility when used in isolation as a talent-identification tool.

Discerning excellence from mediocrity in swimming: New insights using Bayesian quantile regression.

AbstractPurpose: Previous research has captured point estimates for population means of somatic variables associated with swimming speed across strokes, but have not determined if predictors of swimming speed operate the same at the upper tails of the distribution (τ = 0.9) as they do at the median levels (τ = 0.5) and lower levels (τ = 0.1). Method: Three hundred sixty-three competitive-level swimmers (male [n = 202]; female [n = 161]) participated in the study. To identify key somatic variables associated with 100-m swimming across and between strokes controlling for age, we used a Bayesian allometric quantile regression model, refined using Bayes Factors and Leave-one-out cross validation. Results: High probabilities (>99%) were found for arm-span, seated-height and shoulder-breadth being the strongest somatic predictors across strokes. For individual strokes, Bayesian quantile regression demonstrated that the relative importance of predictors differs across quantiles. For swimmers in the 0.9 quartile, shoulder-breadth is a more important than height for front-crawl, wide shoulders are important for breaststroke swimmers but can be detrimental when combined with narrow hips, seated-height and hip-width are important for backstroke swimming speed, and calf girth for butterfly. Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of considering key somatic variables for talent identification in swimming and ensure young swimmers focus on strokes compatible with their somatic structure. The most important new insight is that predictors differ for the best swimmers compared to average or poorer swimmers. This has implications beyond swimming, pointing to the importance of considering the upper tails of distributions in performance and talent identification contexts.

A case study comparison of objective and subjective evaluation methods of physical qualities in youth soccer players.

Subjective and objective assessments may be used congruently when making decisions regarding player recruitment in soccer, yet there have been few attempts to examine the level of agreement between these methods. Therefore, we compare levels of agreement between subjective and objective assessments of physical qualities associated with youth soccer performance. In total, 80 male youth soccer players (13.2 ± 1.9 years), and 12 professional coaches volunteered to participate. Players were objectively assessed using five fitness measures: Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 1; Countermovement vertical jump; Functional Movement Screen™; 5/20 m sprint; alongside anthropometric measures. Additionally, coaches subjectively rated each player on the same five physical qualities using 5-point Likert scales. Inter-rater agreement between ratings from lead and assistant coaches was established for each age group. Moreover, Bayesian regression models were fitted to determine how well coach ratings were able to predict fitness test performance. Although inter-rater agreement between lead and assistant coaches was moderate-to-substantial (ω = 0.48-0.68), relationships between coaches subjective rating's and corresponding fitness test performance were only highly related for the highest and lowest performing players. We suggest that while ratings derived from objective and subjective assessment methods may be related when attempting to differentiate between distinct populations, concerns exist when evaluating homogeneous samples using these methods. Our data highlight the benefits of using both types of measures in the talent identification process.