On the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions for reducing disaster risk.

The potential of ecosystem-based interventions, also known as Nature-based Solutions (NbS), for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is now recognized by major national policies and international framework agreements. However, there is limited scientific evidence about their economic viability and equity impacts. We examined English-language peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2021, which undertook economic evaluations of NbS for DRR and CCA. Based on our results, 71 % of studies indicated that NbS have consistently proven to be a cost-effective approach to mitigating hazards and 24 % of studies found NbS cost-effective under certain conditions. The ecosystem-based interventions most frequently found effective in mitigating hazards are associated with mangroves (80 %), forests (77 %), and coastal ecosystems (73 %). Studies comparing the cost-effectiveness of NbS and engineering-based solutions for mitigating certain hazards showed that NbS are no less effective than engineering-based solutions. Among these studies, 65 % found that NbS are always more effective in attenuating hazards compared to engineering-based solutions and 26 % found that NbS are partially more effective. Our findings illustrate a range of factors, including the geographic locations of the NbS analyzed, their contribution to the restoration and increase of biodiversity, their property rights structure, their source of financing, and the economic methodologies employed to assess cost-effectiveness and distributional effects. The geographic location of the NbS observations included in this analysis was examined considering global projected temperature and precipitation changes.

Toward a framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management.

In our increasingly interconnected world, natural hazards and their impacts spread across geographical, administrative, and sectoral boundaries. Owing to the interrelationships between multi-hazards and socio-economic dimensions, the impacts of these types of events can surmount those of multiple single hazards. The complexities involved in tackling multi-hazards and multi-risks hinder a more holistic and integrative perspective and make it difficult to identify overarching dimensions important for assessment and management purposes. We contribute to this discussion by building on systemic risk research, especially the focus on interconnectedness, and suggest ways forward for an integrated multi-hazard and multi-risk framework that should be beneficial in real-world applications. In this article, we propose a six-step framework for analyzing and managing risk across a spectrum ranging from single-to multi- and systemic risk.

Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system.

The European Union's Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 seeks to protect 30% of land, with 10% under strict protection, while building a transnational nature network. We explore the effects of the Biodiversity Strategy targets for land use and ecosystem services across the European land system. To do so, we propose a novel approach, combining a methodological framework for improving green network connectivity with an EU-wide land system model. We identify an improved network of EU protected areas consistent with the 2030 targets, and explore its effects under different levels of protection and in a range of paired climatic and socio-economic scenarios. The existing network of protected areas is highly fragmented, with more than one third of its nodes being isolated. We find that prioritizing connectivity when implementing new protected areas could achieve the strategy's targets without compromising the future provision of ecosystem services, including food production, in Europe. However, we also find that EU-wide distributions of land uses and ecosystem services are influenced by the protected area network, and that this influence manifests differently in different climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Varying the strength of protection of the network had limited effects. Extractive services (food and timber production) decreased in protected areas, but non-extractive services increased, with compensatory changes occurring outside the network. Changes were small where competition for land was low and scenario conditions were benign, but became far larger and more extensive where competition was high and scenario conditions were challenging. Our findings highlight the apparent achievability of the EU's protected area targets, but also the need to account for adaptation in the wider land system and its consequences for spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem services provision now and in the future.

Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience.

COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.

Natural water retention ponds for water management in agriculture: A potential scenario in Northern Italy.

Climate change is affecting water quantity and quality, with severe impacts on agricultural production. The use of nature-based solutions to address these challenges is increasing. Natural water retention ponds have been identified as viable solutions for water management in agriculture. This paper aims to characterize water retention ponds, and to quantify their effectiveness, direct and indirect benefits, and costs. The paper analyses the case of the Lamone river catchment in Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy), characterized by large seasonal variability of water flow and availability. This is an important agricultural area that relies heavily on irrigation. Here water retention ponds are systematically applied to store water in winter, for use during the dry season. They can play a strategic role in ensuring irrigation water availability, while preserving minimum environmental flow. The paper analyses both the benefits of ponds for the water balance at sub-catchment scale, and the environmental effects produced by ponds having an ecological functionality. We develop an implementation scenario for new ponds, and we appraise the contribution of new ponds whose siting is chosen in order to maximize landscape connectivity. Their hydrological effects are evaluated under present and future climate change scenarios, showing how they may increase water availability for irrigation, while improving the river flow regime. More water for irrigation can favour additional agricultural production, while a more ecologically oriented design of ponds can favour to landscape ecological improvements. The investment costs of ponds are justified in economic terms, and the additional costs of improved design are expected to be balanced by the ecosystem services obtained. The business model required to operate this type of intervention is discussed, together with potential funding channels. We discuss two innovative incentive models based on compensation of land and production lost, and on tradable development rights that can be applied to widely support NBS implementation.

Constructing a comprehensive disaster resilience index: The case of Italy.

Measuring disaster resilience is a key component of successful disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Quantitative, indicator-based assessments are typically applied to evaluate resilience by combining various indicators of performance into a single composite index. Building upon extensive research on social vulnerability and coping/adaptive capacity, we first develop an original, comprehensive disaster resilience index (CDRI) at municipal level across Italy, to support the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. As next, we perform extensive sensitivity and robustness analysis to assess how various methodological choices, especially the normalisation and aggregation methods applied, influence the ensuing rankings. The results show patterns of social vulnerability and resilience with sizeable variability across the northern and southern regions. We propose several statistical methods to allow decision makers to explore the territorial, social and economic disparities, and choose aggregation methods best suitable for the various policy purposes. These methods are based on linear and non-liner normalization approaches combining the OWA and LSP aggregators. Robust resilience rankings are determined by relative dominance across multiple methods. The dominance measures can be used as a decision-making benchmark for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and plans.

Financial liability for environmental damage: insurance market in Italy, focus on Veneto region experience.

Making good environmental damage caused by industrial accidents and restoring impaired ecosystems may be associated with high costs. The European Environmental Liability Directive requires that environmental damage is prevented or remediated and confers financial liability on operators responsible for the activities that caused the damage. The directive encourages adoption of financial risk instruments for environmental liability, ensuring that operators stand up for their responsibilities. We analyse the risk financing instruments for environmental liability in Italy, with emphasis on waste treatment and disposal plant management in Venice Metropolitan City, where financial guarantees and environmental insurance are mandatory. The regional legislation obliges operators of waste treatment plants to seek financial protection through financial guarantees and environmental insurance. We have conducted online survey and in-depth interviews with both suppliers and users of financial protection instruments. On national level, the relatively high environmental consciousness is countered by a low perception of risk and subsequently very low penetration of financial security instruments. Among the identified barriers, we have singled out a limited knowledge of cumulative and long-lasting impacts of industrial activities on environment and ecosystems. Financial and insurance are well developed, but a deep support for specific risk identification and coverage lacks. A closer cooperation between public and private sector can be an opportunity to foster the adoption of these instruments and to improve the coverage of public costs for environmental restoration, due to unattended liability.

Mapping Socioeconomic Exposure for Flood Risk Assessment in Italy.

Detailed spatial representation of socioeconomic exposure and the related vulnerability to natural hazards has the potential to improve the quality and reliability of risk assessment outputs. We apply a spatially weighted dasymetric approach based on multiple ancillary data to downscale important socioeconomic variables and produce a grid data set for Italy that contains multilayered information about physical exposure, population, gross domestic product, and social vulnerability. We test the performances of our dasymetric approach compared to other spatial interpolation methods. Next, we combine the grid data set with flood hazard estimates to exemplify an application for the purpose of risk assessment.

An assessment framework for climate-proof nature-based solutions.

Raising interest in 'nature-based solutions' (NBS) has inspired attempts to organise their principles and qualities within comprehensive and internally consistent evaluation frameworks, so as to demonstrate the superior performance of 'working with nature'. However, the proposed frameworks stop short of taking into account the changing conditions in which NBS are set to operate. Climate change, in particular, can alter ecosystems and their services, and may undermine the performance of green solutions that rely on them. We present here a 'dynamic' assessment framework that explicitly accounts for the impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the proposed NBS. The framework is based on an innovative approach that integrates system analysis and backcasting. Although it has not yet been applied to the NBS context, backcasting is well-suited to seize the transformational character of NBS, as it encourages 'breakthrough' leaps rather than incremental improvements. Our framework factors in the multifunctional character of NBS and is designed to capture associated direct benefits/costs and co-benefits/costs. It is meant to be applied ex ante to ideally support the choice between innovative NBS and traditional options, in an effort to respond to the societal challenges identified by the EU Research & Innovation agenda on the environment.

Comparing adaptive capacity index across scales: The case of Italy.

Measuring adaptive capacity as a key component of vulnerability assessments has become one of the most challenging topics in the climate change adaptation context. Numerous approaches, methodologies and conceptualizations have been proposed for analyzing adaptive capacity at different scales. Indicator-based assessments are usually applied to assess and quantify the adaptive capacity for the use of policy makers. Nevertheless, they encompass various implications regarding scale specificity and the robustness issues embedded in the choice of indicators selection, normalization and aggregation methods. We describe an adaptive capacity index developed for Italy's regional and sub-regional administrative levels, as a part of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan, and that is further elaborated in this article. The index is built around four dimensions and ten indicators, analysed and processed by means of a principal component analysis and fuzzy logic techniques. As an innovative feature of our analysis, the sub-regional variability of the index feeds back into the regional level assessment. The results show that composite indices estimated at higher administrative or statistical levels neglect the inherent variability of performance at lower levels which may lead to suboptimal adaptation policies. By considering the intra-regional variability, different patterns of adaptive capacity can be observed at regional level as a result of the aggregation choices. Trade-offs should be made explicit for choosing aggregators that reflect the intended degree of compensation. Multiple scale assessments using a range of aggregators with different compensability are preferable. Our results show that within-region variability can be better demonstrated by bottom-up aggregation methods.

Climate risk index for Italy.

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.