Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

The impact of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste on humans and the environment over the next one hundred thousand years.

In order to assess the potential radiological risk to humans and the environment from a geological repository for radioactive waste, a safety assessment must be performed. This implies that the release and transfer of radionuclides from the repository into the surface environment are calculated and that the effects in the biosphere are evaluated for an assessment period up to one hundred thousand years according to Swedish regulations. This paper discusses the challenges associated with the modelling of surface ecosystems over such long time scales, using the recently completed assessment for the extension of the existing repository for the low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste (called SFR) in Forsmark, Sweden as an applied example. In the assessment, natural variation and uncertainties in climate during the assessment period were captured by using a set of climate cases, primarily reflecting different expectations on the effects of global warming. Development of the landscape at the site, due to post-glacial isostatic rebound, was modelled, and areas where modelling indicated that radionuclides could discharge into the biosphere were identified. Transfers of surface water and groundwater were described with spatially distributed hydrological models. The projected release of radionuclides from the bedrock was then fed into a biosphere radionuclide transport model, simulating the transport and fate of radionuclides within and between ecosystems in the landscape. Annual doses for human inhabitants were calculated by combining activity concentrations in environmental media (soil, water, air and plants) with assumptions on habits and land-use of future human inhabitants. Similarly, dose rates to representative organisms of non-human biota were calculated from activity concentrations in relevant habitats, following the ERICA methodology. In the main scenario, the calculated risk for humans did not exceed the risk criteria or the screening dose rate for non-human biota, indicating that the repository design is sufficient to protect future populations and the environment. Although the combination of radionuclides, land-uses/habitats, type of most exposed population and area of exposure that contribute most to the total dose shifts over time, the total calculated dose shows limited variability. Significant reductions in the dose only occur during submerged periods and under periglacial climate conditions. As several different water and food pathways were equally important for endpoint results, it is concluded that it would be difficult to represent the biosphere with one or a set of simplified models. Instead, we found that it is important to maintain a diversity of food and water pathways, as key pathways for radionuclide accumulation and exposure partly worked in parallel.

Climate considerations in long-term safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories.

For a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel planned in Sweden, the safety assessment covers up to 1 million years. Climate scenarios range from high-end global warming for the coming 100 000 years, through deep permafrost, to large ice sheets during glacial conditions. In contrast, in an existing repository for short-lived waste the activity decays to low levels within a few tens of thousands of years. The shorter assessment period, 100 000 years, requires more focus on climate development over the coming tens of thousands of years, including the earliest possibility for permafrost growth and freezing of the engineered system. The handling of climate and climate change in safety assessments must be tailor-made for each repository concept and waste type. However, due to the uncertain future climate development on these vast time scales, all safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories require a range of possible climate scenarios.