Performance evaluation of various techniques in estimating precipitation record of a sparsely gauged mountainous watershed.

Comprehensive precipitation data is essential for hydrological, agricultural, and climatological studies. Yet, gaps and sparse rain gauge distribution pose challenges, requiring imputation algorithms to fill data gaps. The aim of this research is to evaluate the performance of several approaches for estimating incomplete precipitation data in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Eight various imputation approaches were used on sparsely gauged mountainous UIB on a monthly time series of twenty-four meteorological observatories. Following that, the estimation approaches were evaluated using a rank-based approach comprising four different statistical indicators. The results indicate that multiple linear regression is the best-performing strategy for most of the stations regardless of season or orography, followed by the arithmetic average method and inverse distance weighing method.

Future climate projections using the LARS-WG6 downscaling model over Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan.

This study investigates the projections of precipitation and temperature at the local scale in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan using six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). For twenty-four stations spread across the study area, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator, version six (LARS-WG6), was used to downscale the daily data from the six different RCMs for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation (pr) at a spatial resolution of 0.44°. Investigations were made to predict changes in mean annual values of Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation during two future periods, i.e., the mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). The model results from statistical and graphical comparison validated that the LARS-WG6 can simulate the temperature and the precipitation in the UIB. Each of the six RCMs and their ensemble revealed a continuously increased temperature projection in the basin; nevertheless, there is variation in projected magnitude across RCMs and between RCPs. The rise in average Tmax and Tmin was more significant under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, possibly due to unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The precipitation projections follow the non-uniform trend, i.e., not all RCMs agree on whether the precipitation will increase or decrease in the basin, and no orderly variations were detected during any future periods under any RCP. However, an overall increase in precipitation is projected by the ensemble of RCMs.

Performance evaluation of 1-D numerical model HEC-RAS towards modeling sediment depositions and sediment flushing operations for the reservoirs.

Sediment inflow to the reservoir is a key factor to calculate life of the reservoir. Flushing is a very useful technique in order to enhance the life of reservoir. From the literature review, 14 reservoirs were considered where flushing has already been practiced and only 6 reservoirs were found successful in flushing. The others were found partially flushed. In this research, data of three successfully flushed reservoirs namely Baira reservoir (India), Gebidem reservoir (Switzerland), and Gmund reservoir (Austria) were used to run 1-D numerical model HEC-RAS. In the first phase, the longitudinal profiles of delta were modeled and calibrated with observed sediment depositions. In the presence of available data of discharges and respective reservoir levels, the modeled deltas were used for flushing the deltas. With the help of modeled delta and corresponding flushing discharges, sediment deposition and flushing durations were computed. The simulated flushed durations were 31, 102, and 180 h for Baira, Gebidem, and Gmund reservoirs, respectively. The simulated flushed durations were found close to observed durations. Hence, the use of 1-D numerical model HEC-RAS is encouraged for modeling of sediment deposits and flushing operations.

Possible options to slow down the advancement rate of Tarbela delta.

The pivot point of delta in Tarbela dam has reached at about 10.6 km from the dam face which may result in blocking of tunnels. Tarbela delta was modeled from 1979 to 2060 using hec-6 model. Initially, the model was calibrated for year 1999 and validated for years 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2006 by involving the data of sediment concentration, reservoir cross sections (73 range lines), elevation-area capacity curves, and inflows and outflows from the reservoir. Then, the model was used to generate future scenarios, i.e., run-1, run-2, and run-3 with pool levels; 428, 442, and 457 m, respectively, till 2060. Results of run-1 and run-2 showed advancement to choke the tunnels by 2010 and 2030, respectively. Finally, in run-3, the advancement was further delayed showing that tunnels 1 and 2 will be choked by year 2050 and pivot point will reach at 6.4 km from the dam face.

Investigation of temporal change in glacial extent of Chitral watershed using Landsat data.

Glaciers are also known as solid reservoirs, and in this regard, Pakistan is a blessed country to have enriched glaciers. The change in glacial extent becomes very crucial for rivers whose discharges are associated with glacier melt. Even a little change in the glacial extent may bring a significant change in the resulting river flows. Considering climate change scenarios, many researchers have predicted future flows in such catchments. But in almost all such studies, the reduction in the glaciers is not normally based on any rational. Therefore, research is needed in order to estimate how glaciers are actually behaving under the change of temperature and precipitations to better estimate the future flows. For this purpose, Chitral watershed was considered as the study area. The seasonal change in the snow extent was estimated by using MODIS data for various years that helped to identify the month with minimum glacial extent. With the help of remote sensing, unsupervised classification was performed to estimate the glacier area in Chitral watershed. The results show a definite receding trend with respect to time in the glaciers of the region for the past decade.