Identifying the true drivers of abrupt changes in ecosystem state with a focus on time lags: Extreme precipitation can determine water quality in shallow lakes.

A better understanding of abrupt ecosystem changes is needed to improve prediction of future ecosystem states under climate change. Chronological analysis based on long-term monitoring data is an effective way to estimate the frequency and magnitude of abrupt ecosystem changes. In this study, we used abrupt-change detection to differentiate changes of algal community composition in two Japanese lakes and to identify the causes of long-term ecological transitions. Additionally, we focused on finding statistically significant relationships between abrupt changes to aid with factor analysis. To estimate the strengths of driver-response relationships underlying abrupt algal transitions, the timing of the algal transitions was compared to that of abrupt changes in climate and basin characteristics to identify any synchronicities between them. The timing of abrupt algal changes in the two study lakes corresponded most closely to that of heavy runoff events during the past 30-40 years. This strongly suggests that changes in the frequency of extreme events (e.g., heavy rain, prolonged drought) have a greater effect on lake chemistry and community composition than do shifts in the means of climate and basin factors. Our analysis of synchronicity (with a focus on time lags) could provide an easy method to identify better adaptative strategies for future climate change.

Ingestion rate estimated from food concentration and predatory role of copepod nauplii in the microbial food web of temperate embayment waters.

To quantitatively evaluate the role of copepod nauplii as predators in the microbial food web, the ingestion rate (IR) of copepod nauplii and the food requirement (FR) of microzooplankton were estimated monthly for 3 consecutive years in temperate embayment waters. The IR of dominant copepod nauplii (Acartia spp. nauplii) was estimated from water temperature, individual carbon weight and food concentration and peaked (>0.50 µgC ind-1 d-1) with relatively high food concentration (>57.5 µgC L-1). This result suggests that food concentration should be considered to estimate copepod naupliar IR in marine environments, especially where biological conditions fluctuate largely. The comparison of copepod naupliar and microprotozoan FR showed the dominance of naked ciliate FR (77.0-90.2%) during the study period except in spring when comparable values were observed between the FR of naked ciliates (41.6%) and copepod nauplii (33.6%). During spring, transfer efficiency (10.5%) from primary production (PP) to microzooplankton production was lower than in other seasons (16.2-17.1%). This study indicates that copepod nauplii are seasonally important micro-sized predators in the microbial food web of temperate embayment waters and that carbon flow through copepod nauplii is a pathway which inefficiently transfers PP to higher trophic levels.

Contrasting radiocesium transfer in the river and lake food webs: Importance of trophic level and food source.

Radiocesium (137Cs) contamination of the freshwater ecosystems adjacent to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan has persisted long after the accident that occurred at the facility in March 2011. It is necessary to elucidate the dynamics of 137Cs in various aquatic ecosystems to predict 137Cs concentrations in fish and manage freshwater fisheries in the vicinity of FDNPP. To these ends, we applied stable isotope analysis to evaluate changes in 137Cs levels through trophic positions and the relative importance of the 137Cs sources at the trophic bases of two rivers and two lakes in Fukushima. The δ15N analyses disclosed that 137Cs decreases from primary producers to fish consumers in the river food web and 137Cs increases among fish consumers with increasing trophic position in the lake food web. The δ13C analysis revealed that autochthonous 137Cs contributed to fish contamination. The periphyton-dependent and zooplankton-dependent fish had comparatively higher 137Cs concentrations in the rivers and lakes, respectively. Cesium-137 supply from the pelagic food web was observed to contribute to greater 137Cs levels in the fish consumers inhabiting the lakes. The results of this study show that stable isotope analysis may help clarify 137Cs dynamics in freshwater food webs and identify the important 137Cs sources in the food web. Identifying important 137Cs sources and trophic transfers depending on the ecosystem help guide regulatory and management frameworks to establish profitability of the food fish stocks there and maintain food security.

Seasonal dynamics of the activities of dissolved 137Cs and the 137Cs of fish in a shallow, hypereutrophic lake: Links to bottom-water oxygen concentrations.

Remobilization of radiocesium from anoxic sediments can be an important mechanism responsible for long-term contaminations of lakes. However, it is unclear whether such remobilization occurs in shallow lakes, where concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the hypolimnion (bottom DO) change temporally in response to meteorological conditions, and whether remobilized radiocesium influences the activity in fish. We examined the seasonal dynamics of the activities of dissolved 137Cs and 137Cs in fish (pond smelt and crucian carp) from Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow, hypereutrophic lake, five years after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The activities of both dissolved 137Cs and 137Cs in fish declined during that time, but the declines showed a clear seasonal pattern that included a summer peak of 137Cs activity. The activity of dissolved 137Cs increased when the bottom DO concentration decreased, and a nonlinear causality test revealed significant causal forcing of dissolved 137Cs activity by bottom DO. The fact that NH4-N concentrations in bottom waters were higher in the summer suggested that remobilization of 137Cs from sediments could result from highly selective ion-exchange with NH4-N. Despite the shallow depth of Lake Kasumigaura, winds had little influence bottom DO concentrations or dissolved 137Cs activities. The fact that seasonal means of 137Cs activities in pond smelt and crucian carp were positively correlated with the seasonal means of dissolved 137Cs activities suggested that remobilized 137Cs may have influenced the seasonal dynamics of radiocesium in fish through food-chain transfer, but higher feeding rates in warm water could may have also contributed to the seasonal dynamics of 137Cs activity in fish. Our findings suggest that in shallow lakes, intermittent but repeated hypoxic events may enhance remobilization of radiocesium from sediments, and remobilized radiocesium may contributed to long-term retention of radiocesium in aquatic organisms.

Combined impact of pesticides and other environmental stressors on animal diversity in irrigation ponds.

Rice paddy irrigation ponds can sustain surprisingly high taxonomic richness and make significant contributions to regional biodiversity. We evaluated the impacts of pesticides and other environmental stressors (including eutrophication, decreased macrophyte coverage, physical habitat destruction, and invasive alien species) on the taxonomic richness of freshwater animals in 21 irrigation ponds in Japan. We sampled a wide range of freshwater animals (reptiles, amphibians, fishes, mollusks, crustaceans, insects, annelids, bryozoans, and sponges) and surveyed environmental variables related to pesticide contamination and other stressors listed above. Statistical analyses comprised contraction of highly correlated environmental variables, best-subset model selection, stepwise model selection, and permutation tests. Results showed that: (i) probenazole (fungicide) was a significant stressor on fish (i.e., contamination with this compound had a significantly negative correlation with fish taxonomic richness), (ii) the interaction of BPMC (insecticide; also known as fenobucarb) and bluegill (invasive alien fish) was a significant stressor on a "large insect" category (Coleoptera, Ephemeroptera, Hemiptera, Lepidoptera, Odonata, and Trichoptera), (iii) the interaction of BPMC and concrete bank protection was a significant stressor on an "invertebrate" category, (iv) the combined impacts of BPMC and the other stressors on the invertebrate and large insect categories resulted in an estimated mean loss of taxonomic richness by 15% and 77%, respectively, in comparison with a hypothetical pond with preferable conditions.

Bottom-up linkages between primary production, zooplankton, and fish in a shallow, hypereutrophic lake.

Nutrient supply is a key bottom-up control of phytoplankton primary production in lake ecosystems. Top-down control via grazing pressure by zooplankton also constrains primary production and primary production may simultaneously affect zooplankton. Few studies have addressed these bidirectional interactions. We used convergent cross-mapping (CCM), a numerical test of causal associations, to quantify the presence and direction of the causal relationships among environmental variables (light availability, surface water temperature, NO3 -N, and PO4 -P), phytoplankton community composition, primary production, and the abundances of five functional zooplankton groups (large cladocerans, small cladocerans, rotifers, calanoids, and cyclopoids) in Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow, hypereutrophic lake in Japan. CCM suggested that primary production was causally influenced by NO3 -N and phytoplankton community composition; there was no detectable evidence of a causal effect of zooplankton on primary production. Our results also suggest that rotifers and cyclopoids were forced by primary production, and cyclopoids were further influenced by rotifers. However, our CCM suggested that primary production was weakly influenced by rotifers (i.e., bidirectional interaction). These findings may suggest complex linkages between nutrients, primary production, and rotifers and cyclopoids, a pattern that has not been previously detected or has been neglected. We used linear regression analysis to examine the relationships between the zooplankton community and pond smelt (Hypomesus nipponensis), the most abundant planktivore and the most important commercial fish species in Lake Kasumigaura. The relative abundance of pond smelt was significantly and positively correlated with the abundances of rotifers and cyclopoids, which were causally influenced by primary production. This finding suggests that bottom-up linkages between nutrient, primary production, and zooplankton abundance might be a key mechanism supporting high planktivore abundance in eutrophic lakes. Because increases in primary production and cyanobacteria blooms are likely to occur simultaneously in hypereutrophic lakes, our study highlights the need for ecosystem management to resolve the conflict between good water quality and high fishery production.

Effects of pond draining on biodiversity and water quality of farm ponds.

Farm ponds have high conservation value because they contribute significantly to regional biodiversity and ecosystem services. In Japan pond draining is a traditional management method that is widely believed to improve water quality and eradicate invasive fish. In addition, fishing by means of pond draining has significant cultural value for local people, serving as a social event. However, there is a widespread belief that pond draining reduces freshwater biodiversity through the extirpation of aquatic animals, but scientific evaluation of the effectiveness of pond draining is lacking. We conducted a large-scale field study to evaluate the effects of pond draining on invasive animal control, water quality, and aquatic biodiversity relative to different pond-management practices, pond physicochemistry, and surrounding land use. The results of boosted regression-tree models and analyses of similarity showed that pond draining had little effect on invasive fish control, water quality, or aquatic biodiversity. Draining even facilitated the colonization of farm ponds by invasive red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which in turn may have detrimental effects on the biodiversity and water quality of farm ponds. Our results highlight the need for reconsidering current pond management and developing management plans with respect to multifunctionality of such ponds. Efectos del Drenado de Estanques sobre la Biodiversidad y la Calidad del Agua en Estanques de Cultivo.