Combining Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesian Networks Methods for Assessing Completion Time of Projects under Risk.

In this study, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian network methods are combined to present a structure for assessing the aggregated impact of risks on the completion time of a construction project. Construction projects often encounter different risks which affect and prevent their desired completion at the predicted time and budget. The probability of construction project success is increased in the case of controlling influential risks. On the other hand, interactions among risks lead to the increase of aggregated impact of risks. This fact requires paying attention to assessment and management of project aggregated risk before and during the implementation phase. The developed structure of this article considers the interactions among risks to provide an indicator for estimating the effects of risks, so that the shortage of extant models including the lack of attention to estimate the aggregated impact caused by risks and the intensifying impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, the introduced structure is implemented in an industrial case study in order to validate the model, cover the functional aspect of the problem, and explain the procedure of structure implementation in detail.

Expert System for Bone Scan Interpretation Improves Progression Assessment in Bone Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The bone scan index (BSI) was introduced as a quantitative tool for tumor involvement in bone of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa). The computer-aided diagnosis device for BSI analysis EXINIboneBSI seems to represent technical progress for the quantitative assessment of bone involvement. But it is not yet clear if the automated BSI (aBSI) could contribute to improved evaluation of progression in patients under antiandrogens or chemotherapy in contrast to the visual interpretation and/or conventional biomarkers such as the prostate-specific antigen (PSA). METHODS: In 49 mPCa patients, bone scans were performed initially and during different therapy courses. Scans were evaluated visually and by the artificial-neural-network-based expert system EXINIboneBSI. Progression of metastatic bone involvement was defined according to the Prostate Cancer Clinical Trials Working Group 2 (PCWG2) criteria in the visual interpretation. The computer-assisted interpretation was based on different cutoff values in relative changes of the aBSI. Additionally, assessments according to bone scanning were compared to changes in the PSA value as a potential surrogate for treatment response. RESULTS: Using a sensitive cutoff value (5% or 10%) for the relative aBSI increase led to significantly increased progression determination compared to the visual interpretation of bone scans (49% and 43% vs. 27%, p < 0.001). In 63% of the cases PSA and BSI changes matched, whereas in 18% progression was only indicated by the aBSI. A relative cutoff of 5% for the aBSI decrease could reclassify 47 serial scan pairs which were visually interpreted as stable into 22 progressive and 25 remissive scans. CONCLUSION: Distinct thresholds of the relative aBSI could help to better assess disease progression in mPCa patients. Manual corrections of the BSI values are not required in most cases. The aBSI could serve as a useful additional parameter for therapy monitoring in mPCa patients in the future.

Repair of segmental long-bone defects by stem cell concentrate augmented scaffolds: a clinical and positron emission tomography--computed tomography analysis.

PURPOSE: Treating segmental long-bone defects remains a major challenge. For defects >3 cm, segmental transport represents the gold standard, even though the method is time consuming and afflicted with several complications. The aim of this study was to evaluate healing of such defects after grafting an osteogenic scaffold previously seeded with stem cell concentrate. METHODS: We evaluated five patients with segmental long-bone defects (3-14 cm) treated with bone marrow aspirate concentrates (BMAC) seeded onto a bovine xenogenous scaffold. The healing process was monitored by X-rays and positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) three months after surgery. RESULTS: Centrifugation led to a concentration of leukocytes by factor 8.1 ± 7.5. Full weight bearing was achieved 11.3 ± 5.0 weeks after surgery. PET analysis showed an increased influx of fluoride by factor 8.3 ± 6.4 compared with the contralateral side (p < 0.01). Bone density in the cortical area was 75 ± 16 % of the contralateral side (p < 0.03). The patient with the largest defect sustained an implant failure in the distal femur and finally accomplished therapy by segmental transport. He also had the lowest uptake of fluoride of the patient collective (2.2-fold increase). CONCLUSION: Stem cell concentrates can be an alternative to segmental bone transport. Further studies are needed to compare this method with autologous bone grafting and segmental transport.