Inference in Gaussian state-space models with mixed effects for multiple epidemic dynamics.

The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different periods. The resulting possible inter-epidemic variability is rarely explicitly considered. Here, we propose to tackle multiple epidemics through a unique model incorporating a stochastic representation for each epidemic and to jointly estimate its parameters from noisy and partial observations. By building on a previous work for prevalence data, a Gaussian state-space model is extended to a model with mixed effects on the parameters describing simultaneously several epidemics and their observation process. An appropriate inference method is developed, by coupling the SAEM algorithm with Kalman-type filtering. Moreover, we consider here incidence data, which requires to develop a new version of the filtering algorithm. Its performances are investigated on SIR simulated epidemics for prevalence and incidence data. Our method outperforms an inference method separately processing each dataset. An application to SEIR influenza outbreaks in France over several years using incidence data is also carried out. Parameter estimations highlight a non-negligible variability between influenza seasons, both in transmission and case reporting. The main contribution of our study is to rigorously and explicitly account for the inter-epidemic variability between multiple outbreaks, both from the viewpoint of modeling and inference with a parsimonious statistical model.

Genomic evidence for global ocean plankton biogeography shaped by large-scale current systems.

Biogeographical studies have traditionally focused on readily visible organisms, but recent technological advances are enabling analyses of the large-scale distribution of microscopic organisms, whose biogeographical patterns have long been debated. Here we assessed the global structure of plankton geography and its relation to the biological, chemical, and physical context of the ocean (the 'seascape') by analyzing metagenomes of plankton communities sampled across oceans during the Tara Oceans expedition, in light of environmental data and ocean current transport. Using a consistent approach across organismal sizes that provides unprecedented resolution to measure changes in genomic composition between communities, we report a pan-ocean, size-dependent plankton biogeography overlying regional heterogeneity. We found robust evidence for a basin-scale impact of transport by ocean currents on plankton biogeography, and on a characteristic timescale of community dynamics going beyond simple seasonality or life history transitions of plankton.

Oceans are brimming with life invisible to our eyes, a myriad of species of bacteria, viruses and other microscopic organisms essential for the health of the planet. These 'marine plankton' are unable to swim against currents and should therefore be constantly on the move, yet previous studies have suggested that distinct species of plankton may in fact inhabit different oceanic regions. However, proving this theory has been challenging; collecting plankton is logistically difficult, and it is often impossible to distinguish between species simply by examining them under a microscope. However, within the last decade, a research schooner called Tara has travelled the globe to gather thousands of plankton samples. At the same time, advances in genomics have made it possible to identify species based only on fragments of their DNA sequence. To understand the hidden geography of plankton communities in Earth's oceans, Richter et al. pored over DNA from the Tara Oceans expedition. This revealed that, despite being unable to resist the flow of water, various planktonic species which live close to the surface manage to occupy distinct, stable provinces shaped by currents. Different sizes of plankton are distributed in different sized provinces, with the smallest organisms tending to inhabit the smallest areas. Comparing DNA similarities and speeds of currents at the ocean surface revealed how these might stretch and mix plankton communities. Plankton play a critical role in the health of the ocean and the chemical cycles of planet Earth. These results could allow deeper investigation by marine modellers, ecologists, and evolutionary biologists. Meanwhile, work is already underway to investigate how climate change might impact this hidden geography.