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BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter represent the most prevalent clinically significant cardiac arrhythmias. While the CHA2DS2-VASc score is commonly used to inform anticoagulation therapy decisions for patients with these conditions, its predictive power is limited. Therefore, we sought to improve risk prediction for left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT), a known risk factor for stroke in these patients. METHODS: We developed and validated an explainable machine learning model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm with 5 × 5 nested cross-validation. The primary outcome was to predict the probability of LAAT in patients with atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter who underwent transesophageal echocardiogram prior to cardioversion. Our algorithm used 37 demographic, comorbid, and transthoracic echocardiographic variables. RESULTS: A total of 795 patients were included in our analysis. LAAT was present in 11.3% of the patients. The average age of patients was 63.3 years and 34.7% were women. Patients with LAAT had significantly lower left ventricular ejection fraction (29.9% vs 43.5%; p < 0.001), lower E' lateral velocity (5.7 cm vs. 7.9 cm; p < 0.001) and higher E/A ratio (2.6 vs 1.8; p = 0.002). Our machine learning model achieved a high AUC of 0.79, with a high specificity of 0.82, and modest sensitivity of 0.57. Left ventricular ejection fraction was the most important variable in predicting LAAT. Patients were split into 10 buckets based on the percentile of their predicted probability of having thrombus. The lower the percentile (e.g., 10%), the lower the probability of having thrombus. Using a cutoff point of 0.16 which includes 10.0% of the patients, we can rule out thrombus with 100% confidence. CONCLUSION: Using machine learning, we refined the predictive power of predicting LAAT and explained the model. These results show promise in providing better guidance for anticoagulation therapy and cardioversion in AF and AFL patients.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Patients with dementia are at increased risk for adverse events following valvular surgery. Outcomes after mitral transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) for mitral regurgitation in this vulnerable population are not well understood. METHODS: We queried the National Inpatient Sample database for all hospitalizations for mitral TEER between 2016 and 2019. Patients with a validated diagnosis code for dementia were identified by ICD-10 codes and compared to a matched cohort of non-dementia patients using multivariable regression analysis. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay, discharge to nursing facility, total hospital charges, and in-hospital adverse events. RESULTS: 24,550 hospitalizations for mitral TEER were identified, including 880 patients (3.6 %) with dementia. Dementia was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (OR 4.31, 95 % CI 2.65 to 6.99, p < 0.001), prolonged length of hospital stay (OR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.12 to 1.57, p 0.001), higher discharge rate to nursing facility (OR 2.71, 95 % CI 2.13-3.44, p < 0.001), and higher rate of in-hospital adverse events including delirium (OR 5.88, 95 % CI 4.06 to 8.52, p < 0.001) and acute stroke (OR 8.87, 95 % CI 5.01 to 15.70, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Dementia is associated with worse post-procedural outcomes after mitral TEER. Further investigation is needed to elucidate mechanisms of poor clinical outcomes and guide shared decision-making in this vulnerable population.
RESUMO
CASE PRESENTATION: A 28-year-old woman with a history of congenital hip dysplasia was referred for evaluation of recurrent bronchitis. She had undergone left hip replacement with titanium implants 11 years prior to presentation. The patient reported frequent bouts of bronchitis, sinusitis, and left-sided nontender facial swelling that started after the hip replacement surgery. She also reported nail discoloration of her left first toenail 1 year after this procedure, and nail discoloration of her right first toenail 3 years after the procedure. She was treated for onychomycosis without improvement. Review of symptoms was positive for chronic dry cough and facial tenderness but was negative for dyspnea, wheezing, or chest tightness. She previously had been diagnosed with common variable immunodeficiency based on low immunoglobulin levels, and the condition was maintained with monthly IV immunoglobulins but without any improvement or change in the frequency of sinusitis, bronchitis, or facial swelling. She did not use tobacco, and her family history was unremarkable.
