Evaluation of concordance in estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) kept track of COVID-19 data at country level daily during the pandemic that included the number of tests, infected cases and fatalities. This daily record was susceptible to change depending on the time and place and impacted by underreporting. In addition to reporting cases of excess COVID-19-related deaths, the WHO also provided estimates of excess mortality based on mathematical models. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the WHO reported and model-based estimate of excess deaths to determine the degree of agreement and universality. METHODOLOGY: Epidemiological data gathered from nine different countries between April 2020 and December 2021 are used in this study. These countries are India, Indonesia, Italy, Russia, United Kingdom, Mexico, the United States, Brazil and Peru and each of them recorded more than 1.5 million deaths from COVID-19 during these months. Statistical tools including correlation, linear regression, intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots are used to assess the degree of agreement between reported and model-based estimates of excess deaths. RESULTS: The WHO-derived mathematical model for estimating excess deaths due to COVID-19 was found to be appropriate for only four of the nine chosen countries, namely Italy, United Kingdom, the United States and Brazil. The other countries showed proportional biases and significantly high regression coefficients. CONCLUSION: The study revealed that, for some of the chosen nations, the mathematical model proposed by the WHO is practical and capable of estimating the number of excess deaths brought on by COVID-19. However, the derived approach cannot be applied globally.

Alarming Trend in Under-Five Indian Children's Exposure to Indoor Tobacco Smoke.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Children who are exposed to tobacco smoke (ETS) are at risk for a variety of health issues. There are enough legislative provisions in Indian law to safeguard children from ETS in outdoor settings, but no such specific rules exist to shield them from exposure indoors. This study aimed to examine the trend in under-five children's exposure to indoor tobacco smoke over the course of a decade (from 2005 to 2016) in India. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS) for the years 2005-2006 (NFHS-3) and 2015-2016 (NFHS-4) on under-five children have been taken into consideration in cross-sectional analyses of the Demographic and Health Survey on India. Based on different sociodemographic factors, the propensity of indoor ETS among Indian children has been estimated and compared using both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of indoor ETS among Indian children under the age of five has greatly risen over the past decade, rising from 4.12% to 52.70%. According to the findings, there has been a noticeable increase in every group of kids, regardless of their age, place of residence, geographic location, socioeconomic status, and literacy level of their mothers. CONCLUSION: In India, the incidence of indoor ETS among children under five has risen by 13 times in the last 10 years, endangering the country. As a result, the Indian government must prepare to take legislative action to safeguard children by passing laws that forbid smoking inside.

Diversity in substance use behaviour among street children of Delhi under Bayesian paradigm.

BACKGROUND: Shannon's index is one of the measures of biodiversity, which is intended to quantify both richness and evenness of the species/individuals in the ecosystem or community. However, application of Shannon's index in the field of substance use among the street children has not been done till date. METHODS: This paper is concerned with methods of estimating Shannon's diversity index (SDI), which can be used to capture the variation in the population due to certain characteristics. Under the consideration that the probability of abundance, based on certain characteristics in the population, is a random phenomenon, we derive a Bayesian estimate in connection with Shannon's information measure and their properties (mean and variance), by using a probability matching prior, through simulation and compared it with those of the classical estimates of Shannon. The theoretical framework has been applied to the primary survey data of substance use among the street children in Delhi, collected during 2015. The measure of diversity was estimated across different age profiles and districts. RESULTS: The results unrevealing the diversity estimate for street children corresponding to each region of Delhi, under both the classical and Bayesian paradigms. Although the estimates were close to one another, a striking difference was noted in the age profile of children. CONCLUSIONS: The Bayesian methodology provided evidence for a greater likelihood of finding substance-using street children, belonging to the lower age group (7-10, maximum Bayesian entropy-3.73), followed by the middle (11-14) and upper age group (15-18). Moreover, the estimated variance under the Bayesian paradigm was lesser than that of the classical estimate. There is ample scope for further refinement in these estimates, by considering more covariates that may have a possible role in initiating substance use among street children in developing countries like India.

Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19.

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19. METHOD: Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000-100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000-10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic. RESULTS: On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections. CONCLUSIONS: In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.

Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World.

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment. METHODS: In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates. FINDINGS: Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65-151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3-10 days of exposure. World's mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020. CONCLUSION: The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic.

Prevalence and determinants of caesarean section in South and South-East Asian women.

BACKGROUND: Caesarean section is considered a relatively preferable and safe method of delivery as compared to normal delivery. Since the last decade, its prevalence has increased in both developed and developing countries. In the context of developing countries viz., South Asia (the highest populated region) and South-East Asia (the third-highest populated region), where a significant proportion of home deliveries were reported,however, the preference for, caesarean delivery and its associated factors are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To study the caesarean delivery in the South and South-East Asian countries and to determine the factors associated with the preference for caesarean delivery. METHODOLOGY: Demographic and Health Survey Data on from ever-married women of nine developing countries of South and South-East Asia viz., Vietnam, India, Maldives, Timor-Leste, Nepal, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Cambodia have been considered. Both bivariate and binary logistic regression models were used to estimate the propensity of a woman undergoing for caesarean delivery and to assess the influence of maternal socioeconomic characteristics towards the preference for caesarean delivery. RESULTS: Obtained results have shown an inclination of caesarean delivery among urban than rural women and are quite conspicuous, but is found to be underestimated mostly among rural women. Caesarean delivery in general is mostly predisposed among women whose baby sizes are either very large or smaller than average, have a higher level of education and place of delivery is private medical institutions. The logistic regression also revealed the influence of maternal socioeconomic characteristics towards the preference for caesarean delivery. Based on nine South and South-East Asian countries an overall C-section prevalence of 13%, but based on institutional births its increase to 19%. The forest plot demonstrated that a significant inclination of C-section among urban than rural regions. In Meta-Analysis, very high and significant heterogeneity among countries is observed, but confirms that in terms of prevalence of C-section all of the countries follow independent pattern. CONCLUSION: Study of seven urban and four rural regions of nine South and South- East Asian countries showed, a significant inclination towards the caesarean delivery above the more recent outdated WHO recommended an optimal range of 10-15%and are associated maternal socioeconomic characteristics. In order to control unwanted caesarean delivery, the government needs to develop better healthcare infrastructure and along with more antenatal care related schemes to reduce the risks associated with increased caesarean delivery.

Analysis of Morphological Features of Benign and Malignant Breast Cell Extracted From FNAC Microscopic Image Using the Pearsonian System of Curves.

CONTEXT: Cytological changes in terms of shape and size of nuclei are some of the common morphometric features to study breast cancer, which can be observed by careful screening of fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) images. AIMS: This study attempts to categorize a collection of FNAC microscopic images into benign and malignant classes based on family of probability distribution using some morphometric features of cell nuclei. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For this study, features namely area, perimeter, eccentricity, compactness, and circularity of cell nuclei were extracted from FNAC images of both benign and malignant samples using an image processing technique. All experiments were performed on a generated FNAC image database containing 564 malignant (cancerous) and 693 benign (noncancerous) cell level images. The five-set extracted features were reduced to three-set (area, perimeter, and circularity) based on the mean statistic. Finally, the data were fitted to the generalized Pearsonian system of frequency curve, so that the resulting distribution can be used as a statistical model. Pearsonian system is a family of distributions where kappa (κ) is the selection criteria computed as functions of the first four central moments. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: For the benign group, kappa (κ) corresponding to area, perimeter, and circularity was -0.00004, 0.0000, and 0.04155 and for malignant group it was 1016942, 0.01464, and -0.3213, respectively. Thus, the family of distribution related to these features for the benign and malignant group were different, and therefore, characterization of their probability curve will also be different.

Evaluation of Female Breast Cancer Risk Among the Betel Quid Chewer: A Bio-Statistical Assessment in Assam, India.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among the female population of Assam, India. Chewing of betel quid with or without tobacco is common practice among female population of this region. Moreoverthe method of preparing the betel quid is different from other parts of the country.So matched case control study is conducted to analyse whetherbetel quid chewing plays a significant role in the high incidence of breast cancer occurrences in Assam. METHODS AND MATERIAL: Here, controls are matched to the cases by age at diagnosis (±5 years), family income and place of residence with matching ratio 1:1. Conditional logistic regression models and odd ratios (OR) was used to draw conclusions. RESULTS: It is observed that cases are more habituated to chewing habits than the controls.Further the conditional logistic regression analysis reveals that betel quid chewer faces 2.353 times more risk having breast cancer than the non-chewer with p value 0.0003 (95% CI 1.334-4.150). CONCLUSION: Though the female population in Assam usually does not smoke, the addictive habits typical to this region have equal effect on the occurrence of breast cancer.

Association between climatic variables and malaria incidence: a study in Kokrajhar district of Assam, India.

A favorable climatic condition for transmission of malaria prevails in Kokrajhar district throughout the year. A sizeable part of the district is covered by forest due to which dissimilar dynamics of malaria transmission emerge in forest and non-forest areas. Observed malaria incidence rates of forest area, non-forest area and the whole district over the period 2001-2010 were considered for analyzing temporal correlation between malaria incidence and climatic variables. Associations between the two were examined by Pearson correlation analysis. Cross-correlation tests were performed between pre-whitened series of climatic variable and malaria series. Linear regressions were used to obtain linear relationships between climatic factors and malaria incidence, while weighted least squares regression was used to construct models for explaining and estimating malaria incidence rates. Annual concentration of malaria incidence was analyzed by Markham technique by obtaining seasonal index. Forest area and non-forest area have distinguishable malaria seasons. Relative humidity was positively correlated with forest malaria incidence, while temperature series were negatively correlated with non-forest malaria incidence. There was higher seasonality of concentration of malaria in the forest area than non-forest area. Significant correlation between annual changes in malaria cases in forest area and temperature was observed (coeff=0.689, p=0.040). Separate reliable models constructed for forecasting malaria incidence rates based on the combined influence of climatic variables on malaria incidence in different areas of the district were able to explain substantial percentage of observed variability in the incidence rates (R2adj=45.4%, 50.6%, 47.2%; p< .001 for all). There is an intricate association between climatic variables and malaria incidence of the district. Climatic variables influence malaria incidence in forest area and non-forest area in different ways. Rainfall plays a primary role in characterizing malaria incidences in the district. Malaria parasites in the district had adapted to a relative humidity condition higher than the normal range for transmission in India. Instead of individual influence of the climatic variables, their combined influence was utilizable for construction of models.

Application of fly ash as a catalyst for synthesis of carbon nanotube ribbons.

The larger diameter-based carbon nanotube (CNT) ropes and ribbons are currently synthesized by catalytic decomposition of hydrocarbons with transition metal-based catalysts e.g., Co, Ni, Fe and Mo at 1100-1200°C, using chemical vapour deposition (CVD) and electric arc methods. We produced CNT ribbons by fly ash (FA) catalyzed pyrolysis of a composite film of poly (vinyl alcohol) (PVA) with FA at 500°C for 10min under a nitrogen flow of 2L/min. Different geometrical structures, e.g.; knotted and twisted, U- and spiral-shaped CNT ribbons were observed in the images of scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The widths of the CNT ribbons measured varied in the ranges 18-80nm. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analysis showed five types of carbon binding peaks, C-C/C-H (∼77%), C-O-H (∼9%), -C-O-C (∼5%), C=O (∼5%) and -O-C=O (∼3%). The ratio of intensities of G and D bands, IG/ID was 1.61 analysed by Raman Spectroscopy. CNT ribbons grown on the surface of FA have potential for the fabrication of high-strength composite materials with polymer and metal.

Age at first reproduction and economic change in the context of differing kinship ecologies.

Kinship systems which tend to be based on ecologies of subsistence also assign differential power, privilege, and control to human connections that present pathways for manipulation of resource access and transfer. They can be used in this way to channel resource concentrations in women and hence their reproductive value. Thus, strategic female life course trade-offs and their timing are likely to be responsive to changing preferences for qualities in women as economic conditions change. Female life histories are studied in two ethnic groups with differing kinship systems in NE India where the competitive market economy is now being felt by most households. Patrilineal Bengali (599 women) practice patrilocal residence with village exogamy and matrilineal Khasi (656 women) follow matrilocal residence with village endogamy, both also normatively preferring three-generation extended households. These households have helpful senior women and significantly greater income. Age at first reproduction (AFR), achieved adult growth (height) and educational level (greater than 6 years or less) are examined in reproductive women, ages 16-50. In both groups, women residing normatively are older at AFR and taller than women residing nonnormatively. More education is also associated with senior women. Thus, normative residence may place a woman in the best reproductive location, and those with higher reproductive and productive potential are often chosen as households face competitive market conditions. In both groups residing in favorable reproductive locations is associated with a faster pace of fertility among women, as well as lower offspring mortality among Khasi, to compensate for a later start.

The Behavioral Ecology of Family Planning : Two Ethnic Groups in Northeast India.

Family planning is the usual modern route to producing a small family. Can human behavioral ecology provide a framework for understanding family planning behavior? Hillard S. Kaplan (Yearb. Phys. Anthropol. 39:91-135) has proposed a general theory of human parental investment based on the importance of skills development in children. As modern, skills-based, competitive market economies are established, parental investment strategies would be predicted to become oriented toward producing increasingly competitive offspring in a pattern of coordinated investment in their embodied capital-in other words, skills training along with good health to ensure their long-term productivity. Parental embodied capital and resources are also expected to be associated with motivation to produce competitive offspring. The basic parental investment trade-off between quality and quantity should predict greater investment in fewer children and the adoption of family planning behavior. Data on family planning in two ethnic groups in Northeast India (Khasi and Bengali) currently experiencing early-phase transition into modern market economies from very different social and ecological baselines are examined within this analytical framework. The results show a mixture of strategies in conjunction with family planning that involve decreased as well as increased investment in the embodied capital of children among Bengali and a divergence of investments in education and health among Khasi. These mixtures of strategies provide some insight into the motivations to use family planning in the face of economic transition, given differing local cultural and ecological conditions and the opportunity structures they provide.