Sequential cervical length screening in pregnancies after loop excision of the transformation zone conisation: a retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To review our experience with a screening programme that included four sequential cervical length (CL) measurements from 16 to 22( ) weeks of gestation. DESIGN: Historical cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary-care centre in a university hospital. POPULATION: There were 312 singleton pregnancies in 321 women with a previous large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ), and 62 pregnancies after a second-trimester miscarriage in a previous pregnancy. METHODS: The CL measurements were performed by transvaginal ultrasound at 16, 18, 20, and 22 completed weeks of gestation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Early preterm delivery before 34 completed weeks of gestation. RESULTS: Early preterm delivery was found in 7.4%. The CL at 16 completed weeks of gestation was smaller in the LLETZ group (36 mm, interquartile range 30-40 mm) compared with the control group (38 mm, interquartile range 32-42 mm; P = 0.040). For the analysis of risk factors for early preterm delivery after LLETZ, only cases with a complete data set were included (n = 145). In a multivariate analysis, two parameters remained significantly predictive, with CL at 16 completed weeks of gestation being the most significant measure (P < 0.001, OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.98), followed by conception using IVF treatment (P = 0.031, OR 0.64, 95% CI 1.54-34.80). CONCLUSIONS: Even as early as 16 weeks of gestation, women with early preterm delivery reveal a significantly lower CL than those without. Dynamics in the CL do not add to this information.

Nomogram prediction for overall survival of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: Nomograms are predictive tools that are widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with cervical cancer. METHODS: Cervical cancer databases of two large institutions were analysed. Overall survival was defined as the clinical endpoint and OS probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Based on the results of survival analyses and previous studies, relevant covariates were identified, a nomogram was constructed and validated using bootstrap cross-validation. Discrimination of the nomogram was quantified with the concordance probability. RESULTS: In total, 528 consecutive patients with invasive cervical cancer, who had all nomogram variables available, were identified. Mean 5-year OS rates for patients with International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage IA, IB, II, III, and IV were 99.0%, 88.6%, 65.8%, 58.7%, and 41.5%, respectively. Seventy-six cancer-related deaths were observed during the follow-up period. FIGO stage, tumour size, age, histologic subtype, lymph node ratio, and parametrial involvement were selected as nomogram covariates. The prognostic performance of the model exceeded that of FIGO stage alone and the model's estimated optimism-corrected concordance probability was 0.723, indicating accurate prediction of OS. We present the prediction model as nomogram and provide a web-based risk calculator (http://www.ccc.ac.at/gcu). CONCLUSION: Based on six easily available parameters, a novel statistical model to predict OS of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer was constructed and validated. The model was implemented in a nomogram and provides accurate prediction of individual patients' prognosis useful for patient counselling and deciding on follow-up strategies.