Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa.

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation1,2, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets3. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability-and their sensitivity to climatic variability-are poorly constrained4,5. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region4 are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation-recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation-recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the 'high certainty' consensus regarding decreasing water resources4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation-recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Constraining groundwater modeling with magnetic resonance soundings.

Magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) is a noninvasive geophysical method that allows estimating the free water content and transmissivity of aquifers. In this article, the ability of MRS to improve the reliability of a numerical groundwater model is assessed. Thirty-five sites were investigated by MRS over a ∼5000 km(2) domain of the sedimentary Continental Terminal aquifer in SW Niger. Time domain electromagnetic soundings were jointly carried out to estimate the aquifer thickness. A groundwater model was previously built for this section of the aquifer and forced by the outputs from a distributed surface hydrology model, to simulate the observed long-term (1992 to 2003) rise in the water table. Uncertainty analysis had shown that independent estimates of the free water content and transmissivity values of the aquifer would facilitate cross-evaluation of the surface-water and groundwater models. MRS results indicate ranges for permeability (K = 1 × 10(-5) to 3 × 10(-4) m/s) and for free water content (w = 5% to 23% m(3) /m(3) ) narrowed by two orders of magnitude (K) and by ∼50% (w), respectively, compared to the ranges of permeability and specific yield values previously considered. These shorter parameter ranges result in a reduction in the model's equifinality (whereby multiple combinations of model's parameters are able to represent the same observed piezometric levels), allowing a better constrained estimate to be derived for net aquifer recharge (∼22 mm/year).