A review of hydroclimate variability and changes in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.

Understanding the factors that influence hydroclimate variability is crucial for developing sustainable water management strategies in dynamic environments. The Blue Nile Basin, a significant freshwater resource in Africa, is facing challenges related to hydroclimate changes that impact sustainable development. Since the 1970s, the hydroclimate patterns of the region have undergone notable changes, prompting the need for a review of the literature on hydroclimate variability of the basin. Therefore, this study aims to offer a brief overview of the latest literature on hydroclimate variability and changes in the Blue Nile Basin. Based on the review of hydroclimate studies in the basin, it is evident that there have been significant advancements in our understanding of this complex system. However, the review also highlights that there are still areas of research that require further development to provide more comprehensive knowledge of the basin's hydroclimate. The projected intensification of hydroclimate change throughout the 21st century underscores the urgency for continued research efforts. The observed warming trend in the temperature of the basin and the discrepancies amongst research outputs on precipitation changes are important areas that require further investigation. Additionally, the inconsistency in reported changes in the watershed's hydrology and streamflow across the basin emphasizes the need for continued research to understand the factors behind these changes. Overall, this review provides valuable insights into the current state of hydroclimate studies in the basin and highlights the key areas for future research efforts to enhance our understanding of this vital system.

Assessment of the impact of rainfall uncertainties on the groundwater recharge estimations of the Tikur-Wuha watershed, rift valley lakes basin, Ethiopia.

Spatial recharge estimation uncertainty is directly proportional to uncertainty in input precipitation data Thus, the main objective of this study was to investigate the recharge uncertainty by using improved spatial rainfall observations. The physically based fully distributed hydrological model WetSpa was used to simulate 20,000 possible combinations of parameters for two model setup. The M1 model setup was developed based on the rainfall measurements obtained from rain gauge stations scattered in and around the Tikur-Wuha watershed in Ethiopia, while M2 model setup was developed using bias-corrected satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) based on Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) merged with relevant ground station records. The required parameter combinations were generated using Monte Carlo simulation stratified by applying Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). One hundred best performing parameter combinations were selected for each model to generate spatial recharge statistics and assess the resulting uncertainty in the recharge estimates. The results revealed that enhanced spatial recharge estimates can be produced through improved CHIRP-based SREs. The long-term mean annual recharge (218.29 mm) in the Tikur-Wuha watershed was estimated. Model parameter calibration performed using discharge measurements obtained from the Wosha rain gauge station located in the subcatchment area of the Tikur-Wuha watershed had a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.56. Seventy percent of the watershed showed a coefficient of variation (Cv) < 0.15 for M2, while 90 % of the area exhibited a Cv < 0.15 for M1. Furthermore, the study findings highlighted the importance of improving evapotranspiration data accuracy to reduce the uncertainty of recharge estimates. However, the uncontrolled irrigation water uses and the total recharge coming from the irrigation fields scattered across the Tikur-Wuha watershed were not considered in the study, which is a limitation of the study. Future studies should consider the contribution made by irrigation water to the total recharge of the watershed.

Depth estimates of anomalous subsurface sources using 2D/3D modeling of potential field data: implications for groundwater dynamics in the Ziway-Shala Lakes Basin, Central Main Ethiopian Rift.

Quantitative analysis of potential field data are made in the Ziway-Shala lakes basin over an area bounded by 38°00' E - 39°30' E and 7°00' N - 8°30' N. Most previous geophysical studies in the region under consideration focus on mapping the deep crustal structures and undulation of the Moho depth. Only few studies are targeted at mapping the shallow subsurface structures. The main focus of this paper is mapping geometries of the major lithological and structural units of the shallow subsurface using gravity and magnetic data. The ultimate objective of the research is to understand the hydrogeological dynamics of the region through mapping interfaces geometries. Automatic inversions, 2D joint forward modeling and 3D inversion are the major techniques employed. The 2D Werner de-convolution based on both gravity and magnetic data along the rift axis showed source depths tending to deepen northwards. Source depths estimates determined by Source Parameter Imaging also showed similar tendency. This is further strengthened by the joint 2D forward modeling of gravity and magnetic data which showed the top of the basement is sloping northwards. The result of the 3D gravity interface inversion agrees with results of the above mentioned depth estimation techniques. Finally, the gravity power spectral analysis resulted in two depth estimates, 1.53 km and 2.87 km which approximate the positions of two density interfaces. The shallow depth interface is thought to presumably delineate the low density Fluvio-lacustrine sediments including the rift floor volcanic units and crystalline basement. Our investigation results agree with the results of previous seismic studies which identified low velocity ("sediment-volcanic") horizon in the rift floor with low resolution. The information obtained with regard to water balance of the basin, salinity level of the lakes and the conceptual hydrological flow model appears to reveal that the groundwater flow in the study region is controlled by subsurface structures, particularly, the mapped interface topographies.

Mapping geologic structures from Gravity and Digital Elevation Models in the Ziway-Shala Lakes basin; central Main Ethiopian rift.

This study attempts to delineate subsurface lineaments for the tectonically and volcanically active region of the Ziway-Shala Lakes basin, central Main Ethiopian rift. Most of the previously mapped subsurface structures in the region under consideration focus on delineating crustal structures thicknesses and Moho depths undulations. Moreover, surface structures in the same region were mapped using analysis of Digital Elevation Model image data. On the other hand, there are few studies that have targeted in mapping geologic structures lying at depth levels between the shallower and deeper subsurface. The objective of this research is thus to map the subsurface geologic structures/lineaments to an average depth of 3 km (crystalline basement layer depth) from surface using gravity data. These investigation results are validated by Digital Elevation Model extracted lineaments. Filtering techniques including derivative filters, upward-continuation and line module algorithm of PCI Geomatica are used to extract the gravity and topographic lineaments of the region. Orientation analyses of these subsurface and surface lineaments are made using line direction histogram of the QGIS software. Accordingly, the gravity subsurface lineaments mapped in this study are found to be dominantly oriented in the NNW-SSE to NW-SE and E-W direction on average. These results appear to be contrary to the NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending surface geologic structure mapped on the bases of actual field observation carried out by previous researchers and automatically extracted lineaments based on Digital Elevation Models data considered in this research. The subsurface lineaments mapped using gravity data are believed to govern groundwater dynamics within the basin and the adjacent basins in the area. These structural lineaments which are considered to be masked in the subsurface coincide with the orientation of the Mesozoic Ogaden rift as compared to the overlying surface structures which appear to coincide with the orientation of the Cenozoic Main Ethiopian rift.