Wood warbler population dynamics in response to mast seeding regimes in Europe.

Mast seeding is the episodic, massive production of plant seeds synchronized over large areas. The resulting superabundance of seeds represents a resource pulse that can profoundly affect animal populations across trophic levels. Following years of high seed production, the abundance of both seed consumers and their predators increase. Higher predator abundance leads to increased predation pressure across the trophic web, impacting nonseed consumers such as the wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix through increased nest predation after tree mast years. Over the past 30 years, the frequency of tree seed masts has increased, while wood warbler populations have declined in several regions of Europe. We hypothesized that increasing mast frequencies may have contributed to the observed population declines by creating suboptimal breeding conditions in years after masting. We measured reproductive output in four study areas in central Europe, which was between 0.61 and 1.24 fledglings lower in the years following masting than nonmasting. For each study area, we used matrix population models to predict population trends based on the estimated reproductive output and the local mast frequencies. We then compared the predicted with the observed population trends to assess if the frequency of mast years had contributed to the population dynamics. In Wielkopolska National Park (PL) and Hessen (DE), masting occurred on average only every 4 years and populations were stable or nearly so, whereas in Jura (CH) and Bialowieza National Park (PL), masting occurred every 2 and 2.5 years, respectively, and populations were declining. The simple matrix population models predicted the relative difference among local population trends over the past 10-20 years well, suggesting that the masting frequency may partly explain regional variation in population trends. Simulations suggest that further increases in mast frequency will lead to further declines in wood warbler populations. We show that changes in a natural process, such as mast seeding, may contribute to the decline in animal populations through cascading effects.

Baseline and stress-induced prolactin and corticosterone concentrations in a species with female offspring desertion - The case of Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida.

To understand the proximate mechanisms regulating brood desertion, we studied hormonal and behavioural stress responses during the chick-rearing period in adult Whiskered Terns (Chlidonias hybrida), a socially monogamous, semi-precocial species with prolonged post-fledging parental care. In contrast to males, almost all females of this species desert during the chick-rearing and post-fledging periods. Because of the expected link between corticosterone, prolactin and parental investment, we hypothesized that males and females should differ in circulating prolactin and corticosterone concentrations. Baseline hormone concentrations did not differ between males and females. In both sexes, prolactin and corticosterone concentrations decreased and increased in response to acute stress (30 min after capture), respectively. Baseline and stress-induced prolactin concentrations decreased significantly in both sexes with advancing brood age. As expected, males had significantly higher stress-induced prolactin concentrations than females. None of the nine males released after being held in captivity for 24 h deserted, whereas four (29%) of the 14 females kept in captivity for 24 h did so. Altogether, these results suggest that higher prolactin concentrations may be involved in the maintenance of parental care under stress. However, there was no statistically significant difference in stress-induced hormone levels between males, females that deserted and those that returned to the nest after prolonged stress (24 h). Our data indicate that males are probably more resistant to stress as regards the continuation of parental care. The pattern of male and female behavioural and hormonal responses to stress partially predicts their behaviour in terms of natural desertion.

Fitness consequences of longer breeding seasons of a migratory passerine under changing climatic conditions.

Numerous studies have shown that climate change affects the timing of migration and bird laying dates, but the resulting changes in the duration of breeding seasons and their fitness consequences remain largely unknown. We compared breeding parameters of 343 individually marked female Eurasian reed warblers, a multi-brooded migratory passerine, studied in the same area in 1980-1983 and 2005-2012. The latter period was warmer, with mean temperatures during the breeding season higher by 1.5°C on average. As, in recent years, birds arrive earlier from wintering areas and the breeding season of the population is longer, we hypothesized it should result in the increased re-nesting opportunities of individual females. We found that breeding periods of individual females (from building of the first nest till the end of caring for last fledglings/last nest failure) in the current century have extended by 2 weeks compared to the 1980s. In the 2000s, females produced 75% more fledglings annually than females in the 1980s (2.8 vs. 1.6, respectively). The proportion of females raising second broods increased from 2.7% to 23.6% between the first and the second study period while the share of females that did not produce any young annually decreased from 48.1% to 15.5%. The higher offspring production in recent years was related to more successfully fledged broods and an earlier start of breeding, which secured more time to re-nest. Higher female parental effort in recent years was not manifested in the reduction of the female apparent survival: it was almost identical in the two study periods (0.30 vs. 0.31). We conclude that prolonged reproductive seasons might be beneficial for some species. Identifying causes and consequences of changes in the duration of breeding seasons may be essential to predict demography of populations under changing climatic conditions.

Determinants of the little auk (Alle alle) breeding colony location and size in W and NW coast of Spitsbergen.

Many seabirds breed in large aggregations, making it difficult to estimate their population size and habitat preferences. This knowledge is particularly important considering their function in food webs and ecosystem services. In this study, we investigated the factors affecting distribution and abundance of the little auk Alle alle, a seabird considered a keystone species of the Arctic ecosystem. We performed the study on the W and the NW coast of Spitsbergen. Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Conditional Inference Tree (CIT) we examined factors related to presence/absence and size (estimated number of breeding pairs) of the little auk colonies. We also tested the nesting preferences for geographical features such as aspect, slope angle, altitude, solar radiation, rock type, and distance to foraging grounds. Our findings indicate that the occurrence of little auk breeding colonies is non-random and highly attributed to environmental factors. The probability of colony occurrence was significantly associated with altitude (negative relationship; preference to sites situated lower), solar radiation (positive relationship; the higher radiation, the more likely colony occurrence) and slope (positive relationship; the steeper a slope, the more likely colony occurrence), whilst aspect appeared non-significant (though the probability of colony occurrence peaked at southern slopes). Colony size was significantly associated with rock type (larger colonies in amphibolite and quartzite). The distance to foraging grounds did not appear to affect the probability of colony occurrence and size, implying that birds may choose optimal breeding sites at the cost of longer foraging flights. We estimated the Spitsbergen little auk breeding population at 728 529 (5-95% CI: 479 312-986 352). Spitsbergen comprises ca 1.9% (95% CI: 1.2%-2.7%) of the world breeding population and represents the third most important breeding area for the species, following the W and the E coast of Greenland.

Population-level body condition correlates with productivity in an arctic wader, the dunlin Calidris alpina, during post-breeding migration.

Weather and predation constitute the two main factors affecting the breeding success of those Arctic waders whose productivity is highly variable over the years. We tested whether reproductive success is associated with the post-breeding condition of adults, in which in 'good' years (with warm weather, plentiful food and low predation pressure) the condition of breeders and their productivity is high. To verify this hypothesis, we used a 10-year dataset comprising 20,792 dunlins Calidris alpina, trapped during migration at a stopover site on the southern Baltic Sea shore. Males were consistently in a slightly worse condition than females, likely due to male-biased parental investment in brood rearing. Annual productivity indices were positively correlated with the respective condition indices of breeders from the Eurasian Arctic, indicating that in 'good' years, despite great effort spent on reproduction, breeders leave the breeding grounds in better condition. The pattern did not hold for 1992: productivity was low, but the average condition of adults during migration was the highest noted over the decade. We suggest that the delayed effect of the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, could be responsible for the unexpected high condition of Arctic breeders in 1992. High population-level average condition, coupled with the low productivity could stem from severe weather caused by the volcano eruption a year before and strong predation pressure, which in turn lead to a reduced investment in reproduction. The importance of large-scale episodic phenomena, like this volcano eruption, may blur the statistical associations of wildlife with local environmental drivers.

The Importance of Non-Native Prey, the Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha, for the Declining Greater Scaup Aythya marila: A Case Study at a Key European Staging and Wintering Site.

The European population of Greater Scaup Aythya marila has experienced an alarming, ~60% decline in numbers over the last two decades. The brackish lagoons of the Odra River Estuary (ORE) in the south-western Baltic Sea, represent an important area for the species during the non-breeding season in Europe. The lagoons regularly support over 20 000 Scaup, with peaks exceeding 100 000 (38%-70% of the population wintering in NW Europe and the highest number recorded in April 2011-105 700). In the ORE, Scaup feed almost exclusively on the non-native Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha. This mussel was present in the ORE already in the 19th century and continues to be superabundant. Using the results of 22 Scaup censuses (November to April 2002/2003 to 2013/2014) from the whole ORE (523 km2 of water), we show that Scaup flocks follow areas with the greatest area of occurrence and biomass of the Zebra Mussel, while areas with low mussel densities are ignored. The numbers of Scaup in the ORE are primarily related to the area of Zebra Mussel occurrence on the lagoon's bottom (km2) in a non-linear fashion. Zebra Mussels were absolutely prevalent (97% of biomass) in the digestive tracts of birds unintentionally by-caught in fishing nets (n = 32). We estimate that Scaup alone consume an average of 5 400 tons of Zebra Mussels annually, which represents 5.6% of the total resources of the mussel in the ORE. Our results provide a clear picture of the strong dependence of the declining, migratory duck species on the non-native mussel, its primary food in the ORE. Our findings are particularly important as they can form the basis for the conservation action plan aimed at saving the north-western European populations of Scaup.