A location discrete choice model of crime: Police elasticity and optimal deployment.

Despite the common belief that police presence reduces crime, there is mixed evidence of such causal effects in major Latin America cities. In this work we identify the casual relationship between police presence and criminal events by using a large dataset of a randomized controlled police intervention in Bogotá D.C., Colombia. We use an Instrumental Variables approach to identify the causal effect of interest. Then we consistently estimate a Conditional Logit discrete choice model with aggregate data that allow us to identify agents' utilities for crime location using Two Stage Least Squares. The estimated parameters allow us to compute the police own and cross-elasticities of crime for each of the spatial locations and to evaluate different police patrolling strategies. The elasticity of crime to police presence is, on average across spatial locations, -0.26 for violent crime, -0.38 for property crime and -0.38 for total crime, all statistically significant. Estimates of cross-elasticities are close to zero; however, spillover effects are non-negligible. Counterfactual analysis of different police deployment strategies show, for an optimal allocating algorithm, an average reduction in violent crime of 7.09%, a reduction in property crimes of 8.48% and a reduction in total crimes of 5.15% at no additional cost. These results show the potential efficiency gains of using the model to deploy police resources in the city without increasing the total police time required.

Impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilization, cases, and deaths of citizens and displaced Venezuelans in Colombia: Complementary comprehensive and safety-net systems under Colombia's constitutional commitment.

OBJECTIVE: Colombia hosts 1.8 million displaced Venezuelans, the second highest number of displaced persons globally. Colombia's constitution entitles all residents, including migrants, to life-saving health care, but actual performance data are rare. This study assessed Colombia's COVID-era achievements. METHODS: We compared utilization of comprehensive (primarily consultations) and safety-net (primarily hospitalization) services, COVID-19 case rates, and mortality between Colombian citizens and Venezuelans in Colombia across 60 municipalities (local governments). We employed ratios, log transformations, correlations, and regressions using national databases for population, health services, disease surveillance, and deaths. We analyzed March through November 2020 (during COVID-19) and the corresponding months in 2019 (pre-COVID-19). RESULTS: Compared to Venezuelans, Colombians used vastly more comprehensive services than Venezuelans (608% more consultations), in part due to their 25-fold higher enrollment rates in contributory insurance. For safety-net services, however, the gap in utilization was smaller and narrowed. From 2019 to 2020, Colombians' hospitalization rate per person declined by 37% compared to Venezuelans' 24%. In 2020, Colombians had only moderately (55%) more hospitalizations per person than Venezuelans. In 2020, rates by municipality between Colombians and Venezuelans were positively correlated for consultations (r = 0.28, p = 0.04) but uncorrelated for hospitalizations (r = 0.10, p = 0.46). From 2019 to 2020, Colombians' age-adjusted mortality rate rose by 26% while Venezuelans' rate fell by 11%, strengthening Venezuelans' mortality advantage to 14.5-fold. CONCLUSIONS: The contrasting patterns between comprehensive and safety net services suggest that the complementary systems behaved independently. Venezuelans' lower 2019 mortality rate likely reflects the healthy migrant effect (selective migration) and Colombia's safety net healthcare system providing Venezuelans with reasonable access to life-saving treatment. However, in 2020, Venezuelans still faced large gaps in utilization of comprehensive services. Colombia's 2021 authorization of 10-year residence to most Venezuelans is encouraging, but additional policy changes are recommended to further integrate Venezuelans into the Colombian health care system.