Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability.

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Additive genetic and environmental variation interact to shape the dynamics of seasonal migration in a wild bird population.

Dissecting joint micro-evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental perturbations requires quantifying interacting components of genetic and environmental variation underlying expression of key traits. This ambition is particularly challenging for phenotypically discrete traits where multiscale decompositions are required to reveal nonlinear transformations of underlying genetic and environmental variation into phenotypic variation, and when effects must be estimated from incomplete field observations. We devised a joint multistate capture-recapture and quantitative genetic animal model, and fitted this model to full-annual-cycle resighting data from partially-migratory European shags (${Gulosus~{}aristotelis}$) to estimate key components of genetic, environmental and phenotypic variance in the ecologically critical discrete trait of seasonal migration versus residence. We demonstrate non-negligible additive genetic variance in latent liability for migration, resulting in detectable micro-evolutionary responses following two episodes of strong survival selection. Further, liability-scale additive genetic effects interacted with substantial permanent individual and temporary environmental effects to generate complex nonadditive effects on expressed phenotypes, causing substantial intrinsic gene-by-environment interaction variance on the phenotypic scale. Our analyses therefore reveal how temporal dynamics of partial seasonal migration arise from combinations of instantaneous micro-evolution and within-individual phenotypic consistency, and highlight how intrinsic phenotypic plasticity could expose genetic variation underlying discrete traits to complex forms of selection.

Increased parental effort fails to buffer the cascading effects of warmer seas on common guillemot demographic rates.

Climate warming can reduce food resources for animal populations. In species exhibiting parental care, parental effort is a 'barometer' of changes in environmental conditions. A key issue is the extent to which variation in parental effort can buffer demographic rates against environmental change. Seabirds breed in large, dense colonies and globally are major predators of small fish that are often sensitive to ocean warming. We explored the causes and consequences of annual variation in parental effort as indicated by standardised checks of the proportions of chicks attended by both, one or neither parent, in a population of common guillemots Uria aalge over four decades during which there was marked variation in marine climate and chick diet. We predicted that, for parental effort to be an effective buffer, there would be a link between environmental conditions and parental effort, but not between parental effort and demographic rates. Environmental conditions influenced multiple aspects of the prey delivered by parents to their chicks with prey species, length and energy density all influenced by spring sea surface temperature (sSST) in the current and/or previous year. Overall, the mean annual daily energy intake of chicks declined significantly when sSST in the current year was higher. In accordance with our first prediction, we found that parental effort increased with sSST in the current and previous year. However, the increase was insufficient to maintain chick daily energy intake. In contrast to our second prediction, we found that increased parental effort had major demographic consequences such that growth rate and fledging success of chicks, and body mass and overwinter survival of breeding adults all decreased significantly. Common guillemot parents were unable to compensate effectively for temperature-mediated variation in feeding conditions through behavioural flexibility, resulting in immediate consequences for breeding population size because of lower adult survival and potentially longer-term impacts on recruitment because of lower productivity. These findings highlight that a critical issue for species' responses to future climate change will be the extent to which behavioural buffering can offer resilience to deteriorating environmental conditions.

Quantifying the impacts of predation by Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus on an Atlantic Puffin Fratercula arctica population: Implications for conservation management and impact assessments.

The management of predator-prey conflicts can be a key aspect of species conservation. For management approaches to be effective, a robust understanding of the predator-prey relationship is needed, particularly when both predator and prey are species of conservation concern. On the Isle of May, Firth of Forth, Scotland, numbers of breeding Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus, a generalist predator, have been increasing since the 1980s, which has led to increasing numbers of sympatrically breeding Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica being predated during the breeding season. This may have consequences for species management on the Isle of May and impact assessments of offshore windfarms in the wider Firth of Forth area. We used population viability analysis to quantify under what predation pressure the Atlantic Puffin population may decline and become locally extinct over a three-generation period. The predation level empirically estimated in 2017 (1120 Puffins per year) was not sufficient to drive a decline in the Puffin population. Rather, an increase to approximately 3000 Puffins per year would be required to cause a population decline, and >4000 to drive the population to quasi-extinction within 66 years. We discuss the likelihood of such a scenario being reached on the Isle of May, and we recommend that where predator-prey conflicts occur, predation-driven mortality should be regularly quantified to inform conservation management and population viability analyses associated with impact assessments.

Hierarchical Variation in Phenotypic Flexibility across Timescales and Associated Survival Selection Shape the Dynamics of Partial Seasonal Migration.

AbstractPopulation responses to environmental variation ultimately depend on within-individual and among-individual variation in labile phenotypic traits that affect fitness and resulting episodes of selection. Yet complex patterns of individual phenotypic variation arising within and between time periods, as well as associated variation in selection, have not been fully conceptualized or quantified. We highlight how structured patterns of phenotypic variation in dichotomous threshold traits can theoretically arise and experience varying forms of selection, shaping overall phenotypic dynamics. We then fit novel multistate models to 10 years of band-resighting data from European shags to quantify phenotypic variation and selection in a key threshold trait underlying spatioseasonal population dynamics: seasonal migration versus residence. First, we demonstrate substantial among-individual variation alongside substantial between-year individual repeatability in within-year phenotypic variation ("flexibility"), with weak sexual dimorphism. Second, we demonstrate that between-year individual variation in within-year phenotypes ("supraflexibility") is structured and directional, consistent with the threshold trait model. Third, we demonstrate strong survival selection on within-year phenotypes-and hence on flexibility-that varies across years and sexes, including episodes of disruptive selection representing costs of flexibility. By quantitatively combining these results, we show how supraflexibility and survival selection on migratory flexibility jointly shape population-wide phenotypic dynamics of seasonal movement.

Earlier and more frequent occupation of breeding sites during the non-breeding season increases breeding success in a colonial seabird.

Competition for high-quality breeding sites in colonial species is often intense, such that individuals may invest considerable time in site occupancy even outside the breeding season. The site defense hypothesis predicts that high-quality sites will be occupied earlier and more frequently, consequently those sites will benefit from earlier and more successful breeding. However, few studies relate non-breeding season occupancy to subsequent breeding performance limiting our understanding of the potential life-history benefits of this behavior. Here, we test how site occupancy in the non-breeding season related to site quality, breeding timing, and breeding success in a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, an abundant and well-studied colonially breeding seabird. Using time-lapse photography, we recorded occupancy at breeding sites from October to March over three consecutive non-breeding seasons. We then monitored the successive breeding timing (lay date) and breeding success at each site. On average, sites were first occupied on the 27th October ± 11.7 days (mean ± SD), subsequently occupied on 46 ± 18% of survey days and for 55 ± 15% of the time when at least one site was occupied. Higher-quality sites, sites with higher average historic breeding success, were occupied earlier, more frequently and for longer daily durations thereafter. Laying was earlier at sites that were occupied more frequently and sites occupied earlier were more successful, supporting the site defense hypothesis. A path analysis showed that the return date had a greater or equal effect on breeding success as lay date. Pair level occupancy had no effect on breeding timing or success. The clear effect of non-breeding occupancy of breeding sites on breeding timing and success highlights the benefits of this behavior on demography in this population and the importance of access to breeding sites outside the breeding season in systems where competition for high-quality sites is intense.

Site-dependent regulation of breeding success: Evidence for the buffer effect in the common guillemot, a colonially breeding seabird.

Density-dependent regulation can offer resilience to wild populations experiencing fluctuations in environmental conditions because, at lower population sizes, the average quality of habitats or resources is predicted to increase. Site-dependent regulation is a mechanism whereby individuals breed at the highest quality, most successful, sites, leaving poorer quality, less successful sites vacant. As population size increases, higher quality sites become limiting but when populations decline, lower quality sites are vacated first, offering resilience. This process is known as the 'buffer effect'. However, few studies have tested whether such regulation operates in populations experiencing changes in size and trend. We used data from a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, a colonially breeding seabird, to investigate the relationship between site occupancy probability, site quality and population size and trend. These data were collected at five sub-colonies spanning a 38-year period (1981-2018) comprising phases of population increase, decrease and recovery. We first tested whether site quality and population size in sub-colonies explained which sites were occupied for breeding, and if this was robust to changes in sub-colony trend. We then investigated whether disproportionate use of higher quality sites drove average site quality and breeding success across sub-colony sizes and trends. Finally, we tested whether individuals consistently occupied higher quality sites during periods of decline and recovery. Higher quality sites were disproportionality used when sub-colony size was smaller, resulting in higher average site quality and breeding success at lower population sizes. This relationship was unaffected by changes in sub-colony trend. However, contrary to the predictions of the buffer effect, new sites were established at a similar rate to historically occupied sites during sub-colony decline and recovery despite being of lower quality. Our results provide support for the buffer effect conferring resilience to populations, such that average breeding success was consistently higher at lower population size during all phases of population change. However, this process was tempered by the continued establishment of new, lower quality, sites which could act to slow population recovery after periods when colony size was low.

Episodes of opposing survival and reproductive selection cause strong fluctuating selection on seasonal migration versus residence.

Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fitted multi-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined.

Strong survival selection on seasonal migration versus residence induced by extreme climatic events.

Elucidating the full eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change requires quantifying the impact of extreme climatic events (ECEs) on selective landscapes of key phenotypic traits that mediate responses to changing environments. Episodes of strong ECE-induced selection could directly alter population composition, and potentially drive micro-evolution. However, to date, few studies have quantified ECE-induced selection on key traits, meaning that immediate and longer-term eco-evolutionary implications cannot yet be considered. One widely expressed trait that allows individuals to respond to changing seasonal environments, and directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics, is seasonal migration versus residence. Many populations show considerable among-individual phenotypic variation, resulting in 'partial migration'. However, variation in the magnitude of direct survival selection on migration versus residence has not been rigorously quantified, and empirical evidence of whether seasonal ECEs induce, intensify, weaken or reverse such selection is lacking. We designed full annual cycle multi-state capture-recapture models that allow estimation of seasonal survival probabilities of migrants and residents from spatio-temporally heterogeneous individual resightings. We fitted these models to 9 years of geographically extensive year-round resighting data from partially migratory European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. We thereby quantified seasonal and annual survival selection on migration versus residence across benign and historically extreme non-breeding season (winter) conditions, and tested whether selection differed between females and males. We show that two of four observed ECEs, defined as severe winter storms causing overall low survival, were associated with very strong seasonal survival selection against residence. These episodes dwarfed the weak selection or neutrality evident otherwise, and hence caused selection through overall annual survival. The ECE that caused highest overall mortality and strongest selection also caused sex-biased mortality, but there was little overall evidence of sex-biased selection on migration versus residence. Our results imply that seasonal ECEs and associated mortality can substantially shape the landscape of survival selection on migration versus residence. Such ECE-induced phenotypic selection will directly alter migrant and resident frequencies, and thereby alter immediate spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Given underlying additive genetic variation, such ECEs could potentially cause micro-evolutionary changes in seasonal migration, and thereby cause complex eco-evolutionary population responses to changing seasonal environments.

No evidence for fitness signatures consistent with increasing trophic mismatch over 30 years in a population of European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis.

As temperatures rise, timing of reproduction is changing at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in asynchrony between consumers and their resources. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) suggests that trophic asynchrony will have negative impacts on average productivity of consumers. It is also thought to lead to selection on timing of breeding, as the most asynchronous individuals will show the greatest reductions in fitness. Using a 30-year individual-level dataset of breeding phenology and success from a population of European shags on the Isle of May, Scotland, we tested a series of predictions consistent with the hypothesis that fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony are increasing. These predictions quantified changes in average annual breeding success and strength of selection on timing of breeding, over time and in relation to rising sea surface temperature (SST) and diet composition. Annual average (population) breeding success was negatively correlated with average lay date yet showed no trend over time, or in relation to increasing SST or the proportion of principal prey in the diet, as would be expected if trophic mismatch was increasing. At the individual level, we found evidence for stabilising selection and directional selection for earlier breeding, although the earliest birds were not the most productive. However, selection for earlier laying did not strengthen over time, or in relation to SST or slope of the seasonal shift in diet from principal to secondary prey. We found that the optimum lay date advanced by almost 4 weeks during the study, and that the population mean lay date tracked this shift. Our results indicate that average performance correlates with absolute timing of breeding of the population, and there is selection for earlier laying at the individual level. However, we found no fitness signatures of a change in the impact of climate-induced trophic mismatch, and evidence that shags are tracking long-term shifts in optimum timing. This suggests that if asynchrony is present in this system, breeding success is not impacted. Our approach highlights the advantages of examining variation at both population and individual levels when assessing evidence for fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony.

Assessing Risk for Mortality in Trauma: The Value of Admission Hemoglobin A1c.

BACKGROUND: Recent efforts have been made to identify admission characteristics of trauma patients that are associated with increased risk of mortality. Contemporary literature has established an increased risk of mortality with admission hyperglycemia. However, the effects of longstanding hyperglycemia, as surrogated by hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), has not been studied. METHODS: A prospective trauma database was retrospectively reviewed identifying patients with collected HbA1c at admission. Three cohorts were defined by HbA1c: normal (N), <5.7; prediabetic (PD) 5.7-6.5; and diabetic (D) >6.5. Regression models were used to evaluate the risk of increased hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS), ventilator days, and mortality. Relative risk (RR) and 95% CI are provided as measures of significance. RESULTS: A total of 2978 patients were included in the analysis (N: n = 1895, PD: n = 744, and D: n = 339). The D cohort was more likely to be older, female, obese, suffered blunt trauma, and triaged at the highest activation acuity level (P < .0001). Mean injury severity score (ISS) was similar between groups. The D group was more likely to have longer ICU-LOS (RR 1.5; 95% CI 1.10-2.07) and ventilator days (RR 1.52; 95% CI 1.03-2.26) than the N group. Relative to the N group, the risk of mortality was 50% higher in the PD (RR 1.49; 95% CI 1.17-1.90) and in the D cohorts (RR 1.50; 95% CI 1.03-2.18). DISCUSSION: Trauma patients with an elevated admission HbA1c have a significantly higher risk of mortality regardless of their history of diabetes. These data add to the body of literature that documents the untoward effect of hyperglycemia on the trauma patient.

Interactions between Environmental Contaminants and Gastrointestinal Parasites: Novel Insights from an Integrative Approach in a Marine Predator.

Environmental contaminants and parasites are ubiquitous stressors that can affect animal physiology and derive from similar dietary sources (co-exposure). To unravel their interactions in wildlife, it is thus essential to quantify their concurring drivers. Here, the relationship between blood contaminant residues (11 trace elements and 17 perfluoroalkyl substances) and nonlethally quantified gastrointestinal parasite loads was tested while accounting for intrinsic (sex, age, and mass) and extrinsic factors (trophic ecology inferred from stable isotope analyses and biologging) in European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. Shags had high mercury (range 0.65-3.21 µg g-1 wet weight, ww) and extremely high perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) residues (3.46-53 and 4.48-44 ng g-1 ww, respectively). Males had higher concentrations of arsenic, mercury, PFOA, and PFNA than females, while the opposite was true for selenium, perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoA), and perfluooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). Individual parasite loads (Contracaecum rudolphii) were higher in males than in females. Females targeted pelagic-feeding prey, while males relied on both pelagic- and benthic-feeding organisms. Parasite loads were not related to trophic ecology in either sex, suggesting no substantial dietary co-exposure with contaminants. In females, parasite loads increased strongly with decreasing selenium:mercury molar ratios. Females may be more susceptible to the interactive effects of contaminants and parasites on physiology, with potential fitness consequences.

Breeding density, fine-scale tracking, and large-scale modeling reveal the regional distribution of four seabird species.

Population-level estimates of species' distributions can reveal fundamental ecological processes and facilitate conservation. However, these may be difficult to obtain for mobile species, especially colonial central-place foragers (CCPFs; e.g., bats, corvids, social insects), because it is often impractical to determine the provenance of individuals observed beyond breeding sites. Moreover, some CCPFs, especially in the marine realm (e.g., pinnipeds, turtles, and seabirds) are difficult to observe because they range tens to ten thousands of kilometers from their colonies. It is hypothesized that the distribution of CCPFs depends largely on habitat availability and intraspecific competition. Modeling these effects may therefore allow distributions to be estimated from samples of individual spatial usage. Such data can be obtained for an increasing number of species using tracking technology. However, techniques for estimating population-level distributions using the telemetry data are poorly developed. This is of concern because many marine CCPFs, such as seabirds, are threatened by anthropogenic activities. Here, we aim to estimate the distribution at sea of four seabird species, foraging from approximately 5,500 breeding sites in Britain and Ireland. To do so, we GPS-tracked a sample of 230 European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis, 464 Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, 178 Common Murres Uria aalge, and 281 Razorbills Alca torda from 13, 20, 12, and 14 colonies, respectively. Using Poisson point process habitat use models, we show that distribution at sea is dependent on (1) density-dependent competition among sympatric conspecifics (all species) and parapatric conspecifics (Kittiwakes and Murres); (2) habitat accessibility and coastal geometry, such that birds travel further from colonies with limited access to the sea; and (3) regional habitat availability. Using these models, we predict space use by birds from unobserved colonies and thereby map the distribution at sea of each species at both the colony and regional level. Space use by all four species' British breeding populations is concentrated in the coastal waters of Scotland, highlighting the need for robust conservation measures in this area. The techniques we present are applicable to any CCPF.

Reproductive performance of resident and migrant males, females and pairs in a partially migratory bird.

Quantifying among-individual variation in life-history strategies, and associated variation in reproductive performance and resulting demographic structure, is key to understanding and predicting population dynamics and life-history evolution. Partial migration, where populations comprise a mixture of resident and seasonally migrant individuals, constitutes a dimension of life-history variation that could be associated with substantial variation in reproductive performance. However, such variation has rarely been quantified due to the challenge of measuring reproduction and migration across a sufficient number of seasonally mobile males and females. We used intensive winter (non-breeding season) resightings of colour-ringed adult European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) from a known breeding colony to identify resident and migrant individuals. We tested whether two aspects of annual reproductive performance, brood hatch date and breeding success, differed between resident and migrant males, females and breeding pairs observed across three consecutive winters and breeding seasons. The sex ratios of observed resident and migrant shags did not significantly differ from each other or from 1:1, suggesting that both sexes are partially migratory and that migration was not sex-biased across surveyed areas. Individual resident males and females hatched their broods 6 days earlier and fledged 0.2 more chicks per year than migrant males and females on average. Resident individuals of both sexes therefore had higher breeding success than migrants. Hatch date and breeding success also varied with a pair's joint migratory strategy such that resident-resident pairs hatched their broods 12 days earlier than migrant-migrant pairs, and fledged 0.7 more chicks per year on average. However, there was no evidence of assortative pairing with respect to migratory strategy: observed frequencies of migrant-migrant and resident-resident pairs did not differ from those expected given random pairing. These data demonstrate substantial variation in two key aspects of reproductive performance associated with the migratory strategies of males, females and breeding pairs within a partially migratory population. These patterns could reflect direct and/or indirect mechanisms, but imply that individual variation in migratory strategy and variation in pairing among residents and migrants could influence selection on migration and drive complex population and evolutionary dynamics.

Permissive Hypotension: Potentially Harmful in the Elderly? A National Trauma Data Bank Analysis.

Permissive hypotension is a component of damage control resuscitation that aims to provide a directed, controlled resuscitation, while countering the "lethal triad." This principle has not been specifically studied in elderly (ELD) trauma patients (≥55 years). Given the ELD population's lack of physiologic reserve and risk of inadequate perfusion with "normal" blood pressures, we hypothesized that utilized a permissive hypotension strategy in ELD trauma patients would result in worse outcomes compared with younger patients (18-54 years). A retrospective review of National Trauma Data Bank reports from 2009 and 2010, identifying critically ill patients undergoing a "damage control laparotomy," was performed to determine the effect of age and systolic blood pressure on outcome. Logistic regression analysis, including evaluation of an interaction between age and admission blood pressure, was performed on mortality using admission demographics, physiology, injury severity, mechanism of injury, and in-hospital complications. Although there was a higher likelihood of death with greater age, lower admission systolic blood pressure, lower Glasgow Coma Score, increased injury severity score, and acute renal failure, a synergistic effect of age and blood pressure on mortality was not identified. Permissive hypotension appears to be a possible management strategy in ELD trauma patients.

Parasitism in early life: environmental conditions shape within-brood variation in responses to infection.

Parasites play key ecological and evolutionary roles through the costs they impose on their host. In wild populations, the effect of parasitism is likely to vary considerably with environmental conditions, which may affect the availability of resources to hosts for defense. However, the interaction between parasitism and prevailing conditions is rarely quantified. In addition to environmental variation acting on hosts, individuals are likely to vary in their response to parasitism, and the combined effect of both may increase heterogeneity in host responses. Offspring hierarchies, established by parents in response to uncertain rearing conditions, may be an important source of variation between individuals. Here, we use experimental antiparasite treatment across 5 years of variable conditions to test how annual population productivity (a proxy for environmental conditions) and parasitism interact to affect growth and survival of different brood members in juvenile European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis). In control broods, last-hatched chicks had more plastic growth rates, growing faster in more productive years. Older siblings grew at a similar rate in all years. Treatment removed the effect of environment on last-hatched chicks, such that all siblings in treated broods grew at a similar rate across environmental conditions. There were no differences in nematode burden between years or siblings, suggesting that variation in responses arose from intrinsic differences between chicks. Whole-brood growth rate was not affected by treatment, indicating that within-brood differences were driven by a change in resource allocation between siblings rather than a change in overall parental provisioning. We show that gastrointestinal parasites can be a key component of offspring's developmental environment. Our results also demonstrate the value of considering prevailing conditions for our understanding of parasite effects on host life-history traits. Establishing how environmental conditions shape responses to parasitism is important as environmental variability is predicted to increase.

When birds can't fly: an analysis of interfacility ground transport using advanced life support when helicopter emergency medical service is unavailable.

BACKGROUND: Helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) transport of trauma patients is costly and of unproven benefit. Recent retrospective studies fail to control for crew expertise and therefore compare highly trained advance life support with less-trained basic life support crews. The purpose of our study was to compare HEMS with ground, interfacility transport while controlling for crew training. We hypothesized that patients transported by HEMS would experience shorter interhospital transport time and reduced mortality. METHODS: Our National Trauma Registry of the American College of Surgeons database was retrospectively queried to identify consecutive interfacility, hospital transfers (January 1, 2008, to November 1, 2012) to our Level I trauma center. Transfers were stratified by transportation vehicle (i.e., HEMS vs. ground transport). Cohorts were compared across standard demographic and clinical variables using univariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the association of these variables with mortality. RESULTS: The HEMS (n = 2,190) and ground (n = 223) cohorts were well matched overall, with no significant differences for demographics, injury severity, physiology, hospital length of stay, or complications. Median (interquartile range) time to definitive care was significantly lower for HEMS (150 [114] minutes vs. 255 [157] minutes, p < 0.001), without change in mortality (9.0% vs. 8.1%, p = 0.71). Multivariate logistic regression did not identify an association between transport mode and mortality. CONCLUSION: Despite faster interfacility transport times, HEMS offered no mortality benefit compared with ground when crew expertise was controlled for, contradicting recent large, retrospective National Trauma Data Bank studies. Our study may represent the best approximation of a prospective study by focusing on patients deemed worthy of HEMS by referring providers. Although HEMS may seem intuitively beneficial for time-dependent injuries, larger studies with a similar methodology are warranted to justify the cost and risk of HEMS and identify subsets of patients who may benefit. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level III.

Genomic selection in plant breeding.

Genomic selection (GS) is a method to predict the genetic value of selection candidates based on the genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) predicted from high-density markers positioned throughout the genome. Unlike marker-assisted selection, the GEBV is based on all markers including both minor and major marker effects. Thus, the GEBV may capture more of the genetic variation for the particular trait under selection.

Genetic and biochemical differences in populations bred for extremes in maize grain methionine concentration.

BACKGROUND: Methionine is an important nutrient in animal feed and several approaches have been developed to increase methionine concentration in maize (Zea mays L.) grain. One approach is through traditional breeding using recurrent selection. Using divergent selection, genetically related populations with extreme differences in grain methionine content were produced. In order to better understand the molecular mechanisms controlling grain methionine content, we examined seed proteins, transcript levels of candidate genes, and genotypes of these populations. RESULTS: Two populations were selected for high or low methionine concentration for eight generations and 40 and 56% differences between the high and low populations in grain methionine concentration were observed. Mean values between the high and low methionine populations differed by greater than 1.5 standard deviations in some cycles of selection. Other amino acids and total protein concentration exhibited much smaller changes. In an effort to understand the molecular mechanisms that contribute to these differences, we compared transcript levels of candidate genes encoding high methionine seed storage proteins involved in sulfur assimilation or methionine biosynthesis. In combination, we also explored the genetic mechanisms at the SNP level through implementation of an association analysis. Significant differences in methionine-rich seed storage protein genes were observed in comparisons of high and low methionine populations, while transcripts of seed storage proteins lacking high levels of methionine were unchanged. Seed storage protein levels were consistent with transcript levels. Two genes involved in sulfur assimilation, Cys2 and CgS1 showed substantial differences in allele frequencies when two selected populations were compared to the starting populations. Major genes identified across cycles of selection by a high-stringency association analysis included dzs18, wx, dzs10, and zp27. CONCLUSIONS: We hypothesize that transcriptional changes alter sink strength by altering the levels of methionine-rich seed storage proteins. To meet the altered need for sulfur, a cysteine-rich seed storage protein is altered while sulfur assimilation and methionine biosynthesis throughput is changed by selection for certain alleles of Cys2 and CgS1.

Genome-wide association study for oat (Avena sativa L.) beta-glucan concentration using germplasm of worldwide origin.

Detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling complex traits followed by selection has become a common approach for selection in crop plants. The QTL are most often identified by linkage mapping using experimental F(2), backcross, advanced inbred, or doubled haploid families. An alternative approach for QTL detection are genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that use pre-existing lines such as those found in breeding programs. We explored the implementation of GWAS in oat (Avena sativa L.) to identify QTL affecting ß-glucan concentration, a soluble dietary fiber with several human health benefits when consumed as a whole grain. A total of 431 lines of worldwide origin were tested over 2 years and genotyped using Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers. A mixed model approach was used where both population structure fixed effects and pair-wise kinship random effects were included. Various mixed models that differed with respect to population structure and kinship were tested for their ability to control for false positives. As expected, given the level of population structure previously described in oat, population structure did not play a large role in controlling for false positives. Three independent markers were significantly associated with ß-glucan concentration. Significant marker sequences were compared with rice and one of the three showed sequence homology to genes localized on rice chromosome seven adjacent to the CslF gene family, known to have ß-glucan synthase function. Results indicate that GWAS in oat can be a successful option for QTL detection, more so with future development of higher-density markers.