Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. METHODS: We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011-13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006-08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. FINDINGS: With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19-29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27-61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by 59% (Crl 56-64) and mortality rates by 74% (67-82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70-77) and mortality rates by 81% (76-87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011-13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71-80) and mortality rates by 46% (39-51) by 2020. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development.

WHO and the future of disease control programmes.

Huge increases in funding for international health over the past two decades have led to a proliferation of donors, partnerships, and health organisations. Over the same period, the global burden of non-communicable diseases has increased absolutely and relative to communicable diseases. In this changing landscape, national programmes for the control of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and neglected tropical diseases must be reinforced and adapted for three reasons: the global burden of these communicable diseases remains enormous, disease control programmes have an integral and supporting role in developing health systems, and the health benefits of these control programmes go beyond the containment of specific infections. WHO's traditional role in promoting communicable disease control programmes must also adapt to new circumstances. Among a multiplicity of actors, WHO's task is to enhance its normative role as convenor, coordinator, monitor, and standard-setter, fostering greater coherence in global health.

Progress towards malaria control targets in relation to national malaria programme funding.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control has been dramatically scaled up the past decade, mainly thanks to increasing international donor financing since 2003. This study assessed progress up to 2010 towards global malaria impact targets, in relation to Global Fund, other donor and domestic malaria programme financing over 2003 to 2009. METHODS: Assessments used domestic malaria financing reported by national programmes, and Global Fund/OECD data on donor financing for 90 endemic low- and middle-income countries, WHO estimates of households owning one or more insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and WHO-estimated malaria case incidence and deaths in countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Global Fund and other donor funding is concentrated in a subset of the highest endemic African countries. Outside Africa, donor funding is concentrated in those countries with highest malaria mortality and case incidence rates over the years 2000 to 2003. ITN coverage in 2010 in Africa, and declines in case and death rates per person at risk over 2004 to 2010 outside Africa, were greatest in countries with highest donor funding per person at risk, and smallest in countries with lowest donor malaria funding per person at risk. Outside Africa, all-source malaria programme funding over 2003 to 2009 per case averted ($56-5,749) or per death averted ($58,000-3,900,000) over 2004 to 2010 tended to be lower (more favourable) in countries with higher donor malaria funding per person at risk. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in malaria programme funding are associated with accelerated progress towards malaria control targets. Associations between programme funding per person at risk and ITN coverage increases and declines in case and death rates suggest opportunities to maximize the impact of donor funding, by strategic re-allocation to countries with highest continued need.

Focused Screening and Treatment (FSAT): a PCR-based strategy to detect malaria parasite carriers and contain drug resistant P. falciparum, Pailin, Cambodia.

Recent studies have shown that Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites in Pailin province, along the border between Thailand and Cambodia, have become resistant to artemisinin derivatives. To better define the epidemiology of P. falciparum populations and to assess the risk of the possible spread of these parasites outside Pailin, a new epidemiological tool named "Focused Screening and Treatment" (FSAT), based on active molecular detection of asymptomatic parasite carriers was introduced in 2010. Cross-sectional malariometric surveys using PCR were carried out in 20 out of 109 villages in Pailin province. Individuals detected as P. falciparum carriers were treated with atovaquone-proguanil combination plus a single dose of primaquine if the patient was non-G6PD deficient. Interviews were conducted to elicit history of cross-border travel that might contribute to the spread of artemisinin-resistant parasites. After directly observed treatment, patients were followed up and re-examined on day 7 and day 28. Among 6931 individuals screened, prevalence of P. falciparum carriers was less than 1%, of whom 96% were asymptomatic. Only 1.6% of the individuals had a travel history or plans to go outside Cambodia, with none of those tested being positive for P. falciparum. Retrospective analysis, using 2010 routine surveillance data, showed significant differences in the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers discovered by FSAT between villages classified as "high risk" and "low risk" based on malaria incidence data. All positive individuals treated and followed-up until day 28 were cured. No mutant-type allele related to atovaquone resistance was found. FSAT is a potentially useful tool to detect, treat and track clusters of asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum along with providing valuable epidemiological information regarding cross-border movements of potential malaria parasite carriers and parasite gene flow.

Relegating malaria resurgences to history.

Progress in malaria control over the past decade has been striking, with malaria mortality rates falling by approximately one quarter globally and more than a third in the World Health Organization African Region. In the accompanying paper, Cohen et al. demonstrate the potential fragility of these gains, comprehensively describing malaria resurgences that have occurred over the past 80 or so years. They found that the vast majority of resurgences were due, at least in part, to the weakening of malaria control programmes; resource constraints were the most commonly identified factor. Their findings are timely and compelling, demonstrating that global efforts will be wasted if the required resources are not secured to achieve and maintain universal access to life-saving malaria prevention and control tools. The greatest threats to current malaria control efforts are not biological, but financial. The increases in funding for malaria over the past decade, while impressive, still fall far short of the nearly $6 billion dollars required annually. Domestic spending by endemic country governments on malaria specifically, and health more generally, could go a long way towards filling the projected funding gap. However, external funding is also essential, and the global community needs to work together to ensure full funding of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, which has been the single largest source of malaria funding over the past decade. This year, on April 25th, World Malaria Day will be celebrated with the theme Sustain Gains, Save Lives: Invest in Malaria. The review by Cohen et al. suggests one possible future if such investment is not made. However, with sufficient support, malaria resurgences can be relegated to history.

Strengthening the policy setting process for global malaria control and elimination.

The scale-up of malaria control efforts in recent years, coupled with major investments in malaria research, has produced impressive public health impact in a number of countries and has led to the development of new tools and strategies aimed at further consolidating malaria control goals. As a result, there is a growing need for the malaria policy setting process to rapidly review increasing amounts of evidence. The World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme, in keeping with its mandate to set evidence-informed policies for malaria control, has convened the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee as a mechanism to increase the timeliness, transparency, independence and relevance of its recommendations to World Health Organization member states in relation to malaria control and elimination. The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee, composed of 15 world-renowned malaria experts, will meet in full twice a year, with the inaugural meeting scheduled for 31 January to 2 February 2012 in Geneva. Policy recommendations, and the evidence to support them, will be published within two months of every meeting as part of an open access Malaria Journal thematic series. This article is a prelude to that series and provides the global malaria community with the background and overview of the Committee and its terms of reference.

Associations between peripheral Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitemia, human immunodeficiency virus, and concurrent helminthic infection among pregnant women in Malawi.

Approximately 2 billion persons worldwide are infected with schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths (STH), many in areas where endemic malaria transmission coexists. Few data exist on associations between these infections. Nested within a larger clinical trial, primigravid and secundigravid women provided blood samples for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and peripheral malaria films and stool and urine for evaluation of STH and Schistosoma spp. during their initial antenatal clinic visit. The most common parasitic infections were malaria (37.6%), S. haematobium (32.3%), and hookworm (14.4%); 14.2% of women were HIV-infected. S. haematobium infection was associated with lower malarial parasite densities (344 versus 557 parasites/µL blood; P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, HIV and hookworm infection were independently associated with malaria infection (adjusted odds ratio = 1.9 and 95% confidence interval = 1.2-3.0 for HIV; adjusted odds ratio = 1.9 and 95% confidence interval = 1.03-3.5 for hookworm). Concurrent helminthic infection had both positive and negative effects on malaria parasitemia among pregnant women in Malawi.

A research agenda to underpin malaria eradication.

The interruption of malaria transmission worldwide is one of the greatest challenges for international health and development communities. The current expert view suggests that, by aggressively scaling up control with currently available tools and strategies, much greater gains could be achieved against malaria, including elimination from a number of countries and regions; however, even with maximal effort we will fall short of global eradication. The Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) complements the current research agenda--primarily directed towards reducing morbidity and mortality--with one that aims to identify key knowledge gaps and define the strategies and tools that will result in reducing the basic reproduction rate to less than 1, with the ultimate aim of eradication of the parasite from the human population. Sustained commitment from local communities, civil society, policy leaders, and the scientific community, together with a massive effort to build a strong base of researchers from the endemic areas will be critical factors in the success of this new agenda.

Protective efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and parasite resistance.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria in infants using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP-IPTi) is recommended by WHO for implementation in settings where resistance to SP is not high. Here we examine the relationship between the protective efficacy of SP-IPTi and measures of SP resistance. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed the relationship between protective efficacy reported in the 7 SP-IPTi trials and contemporaneous data from 6 in vivo efficacy studies using SP and 7 molecular studies reporting frequency of dhfr triple and dhps double mutations within 50 km of the trial sites. We found a borderline significant association between frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and protective efficacy to 12 months of age of SP-IPTi. This association is significantly biased due to differences between studies, namely number of doses of SP given and follow up times. However, fitting a simple probabilistic model to determine the relationship between the frequency of the dhfr triple, dhps double and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations associated with resistance to SP and protective efficacy, we found a significant inverse relationship between the dhfr triple mutation frequency alone and the dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations and efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose and up to 12 months of age respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A significant relationship was found between the frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and SP-IPTi protective efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose. An association between the protective efficacy to 12 months of age and dhfr triple and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations was found but should be viewed with caution due to bias. It was not possible to define a more definite relationship based on the data available from these trials.

The cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) has been shown to decrease clinical malaria by approximately 30% in the first year of life and is a promising malaria control strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa which can be delivered alongside the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). To date, there have been limited data on the cost-effectiveness of this strategy using sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) and no published data on cost-effectiveness using other antimalarials. METHODS: We analysed data from 5 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using a total of 5 different IPTi drug regimens; SP, mefloquine (MQ), 3 days of chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD), SP plus 3 days of artesunate (SP-AS3) and 3 days of amodiaquine-artesunate (AQ3-AS3).The cost per malaria episode averted and cost per Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) averted were modeled using both trial specific protective efficacy (PE) for all IPTi drugs and a pooled PE for IPTi with SP, malaria incidence, an estimated malaria case fatality rate of 1.57%, IPTi delivery costs and country specific provider and household malaria treatment costs. FINDINGS: In sites where IPTi had a significant effect on reducing malaria, the cost per episode averted for IPTi-SP was very low, USD 1.36-4.03 based on trial specific data and USD 0.68-2.27 based on the pooled analysis. For IPTi using alternative antimalarials, the lowest cost per case averted was for AQ3-AS3 in western Kenya (USD 4.62) and the highest was for MQ in Korowge, Tanzania (USD 18.56). Where efficacious, based only on intervention costs, IPTi was shown to be cost effective in all the sites and highly cost-effective in all but one of the sites, ranging from USD 2.90 (Ifakara, Tanzania with SP) to USD 39.63 (Korogwe, Tanzania with MQ) per DALY averted. In addition, IPTi reduced health system costs and showed significant savings to households from malaria cases averted. A threshold analysis showed that there is room for the IPTi-efficacy to fall and still remain highly cost effective in all sites where IPTi had a statistically significant effect on clinical malaria. CONCLUSIONS: IPTi delivered alongside the EPI is a highly cost effective intervention against clinical malaria with a range of drugs in a range of malaria transmission settings. Where IPTi did not have a statistically significant impact on malaria, generally in low transmission sites, it was not cost effective.