Network evolution and risk assessment of the global phosphorus trade.

Phosphorus is an essential element for food production, but the distribution of its global reserve is highly uneven. With the increasing demand for products from all sectors of the phosphorus supply chain, the international phosphorus material trade is becoming increasingly intensive. However, the evolution of the global phosphorus trade network and potential supply risks caused by the trade structure and trade stability are rarely evaluated. By employing the complex network theory, a phosphorus material trade network and a quantitative evaluation index of the trade risk using the external supply risks are proposed to evaluate the supply risk in different countries from 2000 to 2020. According to the network analysis of global phosphorus trades for phosphate rock, phosphorus fertilizer and phosphoric acid, the number of trading countries and trading links has generally increased during the last twenty years. However, the trade structure was found to be significantly altered due to the stresses on the phosphorus reserve scarcity and trade restrictions from countries such as the United States and China. Correspondingly, Morocco has become the largest phosphorus-exporting country since 2016, while India was the world's largest phosphorus-importing country between 2008 and 2015. The topological network characteristics indicate that the phosphorus trade is well connected and more stable over time, but high supply risks were also identified, especially in developing countries in Africa within their phosphate rock and phosphorus fertilizer trade, which might threaten their food security. The obtained findings would be helpful for phosphorus trading countries to manage their trade risks in a timely manner.

Food waste and its embedded resources loss: A provincial level analysis of China.

Food waste is of great concern because it causes severe environmental pollution during disposal and contains many resources that should be well managed. Food waste quantification could clarify the resource value of wasted food and thus help to improve resource utilization efficiency, reduce water eutrophication potential, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By considering household food waste, out-of-home food waste, and food delivery waste in rural and urban regions, this paper quantifies the nitrogen, phosphorus, water, and carbon footprint embedded in China's food waste at the provincial level. The results indicate that food waste in China was 56.75 Mt. in 2018. Those wasted food cause 0.54 Mt. loss of phosphorus (5.12% of the phosphorus fertilizer consumption), 3.58 Mt. loss of nitrogen (10.43% of the nitrogen fertilizer consumption), and 120.25 billion tons loss of water (3.06 times of the storage capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir). If ignoring the greenhouse gas emissions caused by land-use change, the carbon footprint caused by wasted food is 168.07 Mt. CO2eq, accounting for 1.44% of China's total GHG emission. Principal component analysis indicates that the per capita disposable income, urbanization rate, and personal consumption expenditure are critical factors for food waste volume variation in different provinces. Considering China's significant role in the global resource cycling, improving nutrient/resource utilization efficiency along the food supply chain, minimizing food waste volume, and developing economic-effective processes for food waste reuse and recycling are recommended to close the imbalanced resource cycle during the current food waste management.