The risk of introduction of equine infectious anemia virus into USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada.

Deriving horse oocytes in the USA is hampered by the lack of abattoirs processing horse carcasses which could provide abundant quantities of ovaries from slaughtered mares. Therefore, several cloning industries in the USA are attempting to import cloned horse embryos from Canada. Like any agricultural commodity, cloned embryos pose a risk of introduction of exotic animal diseases into the importing country. Under such circumstances, risk assessment could provide an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted means for evaluating the risk. This quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was initiated to determine the risk of introduction of Equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) into the USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada. In assessing the risk, a structured knowledge base regarding cloning in relation to Equine infectious anemia (EIA) was first developed. Based on the knowledge base, a scenario tree was developed to determine conditions (with mathematical probabilities) that could lead to the introduction and maintenance of EIAV along the cloning pathway. Parameters for the occurrence of the event at each node were estimated using published literature. Using @Risk software and setting Monte Carlo simulation at 50,000 iterations, the probability of importing an EIAV-infected cloned horse embryo was 1.8 × 10(-9) (R = 1.5 × 10(-12) to 2.9 × 10(-8)). Taking into account the current protocol for equine cloning and assuming the yield of 5 to 30 clones per year, the possible number of EIAV-infected cloned horse embryos ranged from 2.0 × 10(-10) to 9.1 × 10(-5) (Mean = 1.4×10(-6)) per year. Consequently, it would take up to 1.5 × 10(7) (R = 1.6 × 10(4) to 5.1 × 10(10)) years for EIAV to be introduced into the USA. Based on the knowledge base and our critical pathway analysis, the biological plausibility of introducing EIAV into USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada is extremely low.

A quantitative assessment of the risk of introducing foot and mouth disease virus into the United States via cloned bovine embryos.

The trade of livestock or their products between nations requires information on the risk of introducing infectious agents such as foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV). Although transmission pathways for FMDV vary, a recent concern in the United States (USA) is that it might enter via cloned embryos. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to determine the scenarios (with mathematical probabilities) that could lead to the introduction and maintenance of FMDV via the importation of cloned bovine embryos. Using @RISK software with Monte Carlo simulation involving 50,000 iterations, the probability of introducing FMDV via cloned embryos was estimated to be 3.1 x 10(-7). Given the current cloning protocol, and assuming the annual importation of 250 to 1,700 (mean = 520) cloned embryos, the expected number of infected embryos ranges from 1.1 x 10(-7) to 4.4 x 10(-3) (mean = 1.6 x 10(-4)) per year. Critical pathway analysis showed that the risk of FMDV entering the USA by this route is extremely low.

A quantitative risk assessment for the likelihood of introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 into U.S. hunter retriever dogs.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain H5N1 has received great attention with regard to its potential spread to North America. This quantitative risk assessment, which is primarily based on wild bird carriage of HPAI from East Asia to Alaska, was conducted to assess the likelihood of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected after harvesting an infected waterfowl during the Alaskan hunting season. Using Monte Carlo Simulation with @Risk software, the expected probability of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected is 2.3 x 10(-8). This model can serve as a tool for decision makers in assessing the risk of HPAI strain H5N1 introduction into Alaska's hunter retriever dogs.

Epidemiologic Modeling of HIV/AIDS: Use of Computational Models to Study the Population Dynamics of the Disease to Assess Effective Intervention Strategies for Decision-making.

Computational models and simulations are becoming central research tools in epidemiology, biology, and other fields. Epidemiologic research involves the study of a complex set of host, environment and causative agent factors as these interact to impact health and diseases in any population. The most advanced of these efforts have focused on micro (cellular) or macro (human) population levels. The dynamic interplay of HIV with a focus in its hosts at the cellular level provides the micro-epidemiologic basis, while the dynamic interplay of multifactorial determinants: biomedical, behavioral, and socioeconomic factors provide the macro-epidemiologic basis at the human population level. We have developed the computational tools and mathematical approaches to study the population-level effects of various drugs on HIV to integrate models from micro to macro- levels in a seamless fashion. The critical variables that facilitate transmission of HIV and intracellular interactions and molecular kinetics were considered. Such multilevel models are essential if we are to develop quantitative, predictive models of complex biological systems such as HIV/AIDS.

A Conceptual Multivariate Modelling Approach for Integrating Epidemiologic and Psychosocial Determinants to Examine the Epidemiology of Diseases in Under-served Populations.

Epidemiologic research involves the study of a complex set of host, environment and causative agent factors as these interact to impact health and diseases in any population. A conceptual multivariate modelling approach for integrating epidemiologic and psychosocial determinants to examine the epidemiology of chronic and infectious diseases in under-served populations in the USA was developed. Our approach relies upon systems analysis, i.e. integrating concepts and methods in epidemiology with mathematics and statistics along with computational methods and tools to rigorously examine the dynamics of diseases such as the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in a community. We used a multifactorial and quantitative epidemiologic (static) model that interrelates multiple determinants including biomedical, behavioral, and socioeconomic factors to analyze morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS. The research involved participation of the community in the collection of socioeconomic, demographic, environmental, epidemiologic and biomedical data. In collaboration with Montgomery AIDS Outreach (MAO), a community based Organization in Montgomery, Alabama; blood samples were collected and tested using Orasure HIV testing kits to establish infection status with HIV/AIDS. Using these models, evaluations of various intervention scenarios with the objective of recommending effective strategies to minimize the risk of new HIV infections and/or manage existing diseases in a community can be generated.

Developing a Generic Risk Assessment Simulation Modelling Software Tool for Assessing the Risk of Foot and Mouth Virus Introduction.

Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects all cloven-hoofed animals. Because of its devastating effects on the agricultural industry, many countries take measures to stop the introduction of FMD virus into their countries. Decision makers at multiple levels of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) use Risk Assessments (RAs) (both quantitative and qualitative) to make better and more informed scientifically based decisions to prevent the accidental or intentional introduction of the disease. There is a need for a generic RA that can be applied to any country (whether FMD free or non-FMD free) and for any product (FMD infected animals and animal products). We developed a user-friendly generic RA tool (software) that can be used to conduct and examine different scenarios of quantitative/qualitative risk assessments for the different countries with their varying FMD statuses in relation to reintroduction of FMD virus into the USA. The program was written in Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, USA). The @Risk 6.1 Developer Kit (RDK) and @Risk 6.1 Best Fit Kit library (Palisade Corporation, Newfield, NY.USA) was used to build Monte Carlo simulation models. Microsoft Access 2000 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, USA) was used and SQL to query the data. Different input probability distributions can be selected for the nodes in the scenario tree and different output for each end-state of the simulation is given in different graphical formats and statistical values are used in describing the likelihood of FMD virus introduction. Sensitivity Analysis in determining which input factor has more effect on the total risk outputs is also given. The developed generic RA tools can be eventually extended and modified to conduct RAs for other animal diseases and animal products.

Modelling viral and CD4 cellular population dynamics in HIV: approaches to evaluate intervention strategies.

Computational models, such as in epidemiology, provide a powerful tool that can be used to systematically examine an array of dynamic interactions among populations as well as to evaluate altemate disease intervention strategies. The specific objectives in this study were to: a/ examine the interaction of cellular (CD4) and HIV population dynamics and evaluate the impact of the use of combination chemotherapies on viral and CD4 populations (Experiment #1), b/ demonstrate how modelling can be used to evaluate the impact of an intervention (condom use) on reducing the rate of HIV/AIDS (Experiment #2). In this study, we used state transition models and conducted simulation experiments to evaluate various alternatives for the control and/or prevention of HIV/AIDS. The result indicated that combination therapy (double or triple drug therapies) was very effective. The HIV viral population decreased rapidly and remained suppressed for years. On the other hand, the CD4 cell population increased above 400 cells per ml and was maintained above that level for many years. Mono-therapy was not as effective; although the viral load decreased rapidly, it increased to its original levels within a few months. Since condom use is one of the key interventions of HIV/AIDS, we evaluated its use in 25%, 50% and 75% of an adult, sexually active population. Increasing condom use by 50% and 75% above an estimated baseline of 25% reduced the incidence of AIDS by 53% in Blacks, 49% in Hispanics and 43% in Whites. The study shows how a cellular/molecular level model can be incorporated within a macro-epidemiologic systems dynamics model to evaluate a variety of scientific questions such as to see if cellular/molecular level interventions reduce morbidity and mortality rates in HIV.

A risk-assessment model for foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus introduction through deboned beef importation.

We present a risk-assessment model to assess the risk of introduction of foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus associated with deboned beef importation. The model was developed in accordance with the risk-reduction procedures proposed by the European Community for meat importation. The risk reduction procedures include farm-level inspection, ante-mortem inspection, post-mortem inspection, chilling and deboning. The risk assessment was based on the prevalence of FMD-infected cattle in herds as well as the prevalence of infected herds in the exporting country. Computer simulations were carried out to evaluate the probability of FMD virus introduction by importing 100 tons of deboned beef in relation to FMD prevalence, number of cattle selected from each herd, and sample sizes in ante-mortem and post-mortem inspections. The effects of the risk-reduction procedures on the probability of FMD virus introduction were examined.

A study of the effect of isoflurane anaesthesia on equine skeletal muscle perfusion.

The effects of 1.1, 1.5 and 1.8 MAC (minimum alveolar concentration) isoflurane-02 anaesthesia on skeletal muscle blood flow, 02 delivery and vascular resistance were studied in the non-dependent region of seven healthy normothermic, isocapnoeic ponies. Muscle blood flow was determined with 15 microns diameter radionuclide labelled microspheres that were injected into the left ventricle. Muscle blood flow during anaesthesia was compared to unanaesthetised (control) measurements. Isoflurane administration caused a dose dependent decrease in mean aortic pressure, and skeletal muscle (temporalis, triceps brachii, longissimus dorsi, gluteus medius, biceps femoris, vastus lateralis) blood flow. However, in the masseter, triceps brachii at 1.1 and 1.5 MAC, and longissimus dorsi lumborum at 1.1 MAC anaesthesia, blood flow values were not different from the control value. Vascular resistance did not change significantly in any of the muscles with any concentration of isoflurane. With the exception of the masseter muscle, isoflurane anaesthesia also decreased skeletal muscle 02 delivery. There were no significant differences in the muscle parameters studied between the three concentrations of isoflurane. Because skeletal muscle vascular resistance was unchanged throughout the study, it is possible that there may be an interference of 'autoregulation' in the skeletal muscle vascular beds of isocapnoeic ponies during isoflurane-02 anaesthesia.

Costal diaphragmatic O2 and lactate extraction in laryngeal hemiplegic ponies during exercise.

Diaphragmatic O2 and lactate extraction were examined in seven healthy ponies during maximal exercise (ME) carried out without, as well as with, inspiratory resistive breathing. Arterial and diaphragmatic venous blood were sampled simultaneously at rest and at 30-s intervals during the 4 min of ME. Experiments were carried out before and after left laryngeal hemiplegia (LH) was produced. During ME, normal ponies exhibited hypocapnia, hemoconcentration, and a decrease in arterial PO2 (PaO2) with insignificant change in O2 saturation. In LH ponies, PaO2 and O2 saturation decreased well below that in normal ponies, but because of higher hemoglobin concentration, arterial O2 content exceeded that in normal ponies. Because of their high PaCO2 during ME, acidosis was more pronounced in LH animals despite similar lactate values. Diaphragmatic venous PO2 and O2 saturation decreased with ME to 15.5 +/- 0.9 Torr and 18 +/- 0.5%, respectively, at 120 s of exercise in normal ponies. In LH ponies, corresponding values were significantly less: 12.4 +/- 1.3 Torr and 15.5 +/- 0.7% at 120 s and 9.8 +/- 1.4 Torr and 14.3 +/- 0.6% at 240 s of ME. Mean phrenic O2 extraction plateaued at 81 and 83% in normal and LH animals, respectively. Significant differences in lactate concentration between arterial and phrenic-venous blood were not observed during ME. It is concluded that PO2 and O2 saturation in the phrenic-venous blood of normal ponies do not reach their lowest possible values even during ME. Also, the healthy equine diaphragm, even with the added stress of inspiratory resistive breathing, did not engage in net lactate production.

Diaphragmatic O2 and lactate extraction during submaximal and maximal exertion in ponies.

Diaphragmatic O2 and lactate extraction were studied in 10 healthy ponies at rest and during treadmill exercise. The phrenic vein was aseptically catheterized via a lateral thoracotomy 8-35 days before the study. Arterial and phrenic venous blood samples were obtained simultaneously at rest and at 30-s intervals during 4 min of exertion. Three levels of exertion were studied (moderate, 10 mi/h; heavy, 15 mi/h; maximal, 20 mi/h), and a rest period of at least 90 min was allowed between them. Each pony was studied twice at least 2-3 days apart. At rest the diaphragmatic venous PO2, O2 saturation, arteriovenous O2 content difference, and O2 extraction were 43.2 +/- 2.0 Torr, 76.1 +/- 3.2%, 3.14 +/- 0.43 ml/dl, and 23.60 +/- 3.61%, respectively. Significant decrease in phrenic venous PO2 and O2 saturation occurred within 30 s of exercise. Phrenic venous PO2 decreased to 20.3 +/- 1.0, 18.9 +/- 1.1, and 15.4 +/- 0.9 Torr at 120 s of moderate, heavy, and maximal exercise, respectively. Corresponding values of phrenic venous O2 saturation were 33.6 +/- 2.2, 25.8 +/- 2.1, and 17.9 +/- 0.5%, respectively. Diaphragmatic arteriovenous O2 content difference expanded to 13.11 +/- 0.49, 15.00 +/- 0.60, and 16.90 +/- 0.60 ml/dl at 120 s of moderate, heavy, and maximal exercise, respectively, as O2 extraction rose to 65.93 +/- 1.98, 73.90 +/- 1.99, and 80.95 +/- 0.47%, respectively. During heavy and maximal exercise, the diaphragmatic venous lactate concentration remained similar to the arterial concentration.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Systemic distribution of blood flow in ponies during 1.45%, 1.96%, and 2.39% end-tidal isoflurane-O2 anesthesia.

Effects of 1.1, 1.5, and 1.8 minimal alveolar concentration (MAC) isoflurane-O2 (1.45%, 1.96%, and 2.39% end-tidal isoflurane, respectively) anesthesia on cardiac output, blood pressure, and blood flow to the brain, thyroid glands, adrenal glands, kidneys, and splanchnic organs were examined in 9 healthy isocapnic adult ponies. Tissue blood flows were studied using 15-micron diameter radionuclide-labeled microspheres that were injected into the left ventricle, and comparisons were made with data obtained from ponies in the conscious state. Isoflurane anesthesia caused dose-related reduction in cardiac output and arterial blood pressure, but total peripheral resistance was not significantly altered (P greater than 0.05). In the brain, vasodilation occurred with exposure to isoflurane that peaked at 1.5 MAC. Vasodilation was more pronounced in the cerebellum, pons, and medulla, compared with that in the cerebrum. Perfusion increased in cerebellar gray, as well as white, matter. However, in the cerebrum, blood flow increased in the white matter, whereas it decreased in caudate nuclei and was similar to value in the cortex of awake ponies. In thyroid glands and pancreas, intense vasoconstriction occurred during isoflurane anesthesia which caused precipitous reduction in blood flow in these organs. By contrast, adrenal gland blood flow was not affected during the 3 levels of isoflurane anesthesia because vasodilation occurred. The renal blood flow registered dose-dependent reductions during isoflurane-O2 anesthesia, but renal vasoconstriction occurred only during the deepest level (1.8 MAC) of anesthesia. Although the small intestine and and colon blood flow decreased with each concentration of isoflurane, the splenic blood flow remained unaffected.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Skeletal muscle perfusion during prolonged 2.03% end-tidal isoflurane-O2 anesthesia in isocapnic ponies.

Effects of 1.55 minimum alveolar concentration isoflurane O2 anesthesia (2.03% end-tidal isoflurane) on blood flow in the up-(nondependent) and down-(dependent) positioned skeletal muscles were studied at 60, 120, and 180 minutes in 6 healthy isocapnic ponies in right lateral recumbency on a nonpadded hardwood floor. Measurements were made, using 15-micron diameter radionuclide-labeled microspheres injected into the left ventricle, and comparisons were made with data obtained from ponies in the conscious state. Isoflurane administration caused a sharp reduction in cardiac output and systemic pressure (P less than 0.01), but total peripheral resistance did not change significantly. In the triceps brachii, gluteus medius, biceps femoris, and vastus lateralis of both sides, blood flow decreased significantly during 1.55 minimum alveolar concentration isoflurane anesthesia (P less than 0.01), and fluctuations did not occur with increasing duration of anesthesia. In masseter muscles, perfusion values during the 3 hours of anesthesia were not significantly different from values in awake ponies. Despite the fact that 4 ponies developed marked edema of the dependent masseter muscle, 1 pony without masseter edema developed postanesthetic forelimb lameness and 2 of the 4 ponies with masseter edema had generalized hind limb weakness after anesthesia; significant differences in blood flow between up- and down-positioned muscles were not observed. During isoflurane-O2 anesthesia in ponies, a sharp significant decrease in skeletal muscle blood flow was observed (P less than 0.01). Decreased equine skeletal muscle perfusion during isoflurane anesthesia also may be accompanied by accentuated O2 loss from the arterial blood via the countercurrent O2 exchange between large arterioles and venules.