Determining Tipping Points and Responses of Macroinvertebrate Traits to Abiotic Factors in Support of River Management.

Although the trait concept is increasingly used in research, quantitative relations that can support in determining ecological tipping points and serve as a basis for environmental standards are lacking. This study determines changes in trait abundance along a gradient of flow velocity, turbidity and elevation, and develops trait-response curves, which facilitate the identification of ecological tipping points. Aquatic macroinvertebrates and abiotic conditions were determined at 88 different locations in the streams of the Guayas basin. After trait information collection, a set of trait diversity metrics were calculated. Negative binomial regression and linear regression were applied to relate the abundance of each trait and trait diversity metrics, respectively, to flow velocity, turbidity and elevation. Tipping points for each environmental variable in relation to traits were identified using the segmented regression method. The abundance of most traits increased with increasing velocity, while they decreased with increasing turbidity. The negative binomial regression models revealed that from a flow velocity higher than 0.5 m/s, a substantial increase in abundance occurs for several traits, and this is even more substantially noticed at values higher than 1 m/s. Furthermore, significant tipping points were also identified for elevation, wherein an abrupt decline in trait richness was observed below 22 m a.s.l., implying the need to focus water management in these altitudinal regions. Turbidity is potentially caused by erosion; thus, measures that can reduce or limit erosion within the basin should be implemented. Our findings suggest that measures mitigating the issues related to turbidity and flow velocity may lead to better aquatic ecosystem functioning. This quantitative information related to flow velocity might serve as a good basis to determine ecological flow requirements and illustrates the major impacts that hydropower dams can have in fast-running river systems. These quantitative relations between invertebrate traits and environmental conditions, as well as related tipping points, provide a basis to determine critical targets for aquatic ecosystem management, achieve improved ecosystem functioning and warrant trait diversity.

Methods to discriminate primary from secondary dengue during acute symptomatic infection.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus infection results in a broad spectrum of clinical outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic infection through to severe dengue. Although prior infection with another viral serotype, i.e. secondary dengue, is known to be an important factor influencing disease severity, current methods to determine primary versus secondary immune status during the acute illness do not consider the rapidly evolving immune response, and their accuracy has rarely been evaluated against an independent gold standard. METHODS: Two hundred and ninety-three confirmed dengue patients were classified as experiencing primary, secondary or indeterminate infections using plaque reduction neutralisation tests performed 6 months after resolution of the acute illness. We developed and validated regression models to differentiate primary from secondary dengue on multiple acute illness days, using Panbio Indirect IgG and in-house capture IgG and IgM ELISA measurements performed on over 1000 serial samples obtained during acute illness. RESULTS: Cut-offs derived for the various parameters demonstrated progressive change (positively or negatively) by day of illness. Using these time varying cut-offs it was possible to determine whether an infection was primary or secondary on single specimens, with acceptable performance. The model using Panbio Indirect IgG responses and including an interaction with illness day showed the best performance throughout, although with some decline in performance later in infection. Models based on in-house capture IgG levels, and the IgM/IgG ratio, also performed well, though conversely performance improved later in infection. CONCLUSIONS: For all assays, the best fitting models estimated a different cut-off value for different days of illness, confirming how rapidly the immune response changes during acute dengue. The optimal choice of assay will vary depending on circumstance. Although the Panbio Indirect IgG model performs best early on, the IgM/IgG capture ratio may be preferred later in the illness course.

Corticosteroids for dengue - why don't they work?

BACKGROUND: Dysregulated immune responses may contribute to the clinical complications that occur in some patients with dengue. FINDINGS: In Vietnamese pediatric dengue cases randomized to early prednisolone therapy, 81 gene-transcripts (0.2% of the 47,231 evaluated) were differentially abundant in whole-blood between high-dose (2 mg/kg) prednisolone and placebo-treated patients two days after commencing therapy. Prominent among the 81 transcripts were those associated with T and NK cell cytolytic functions. Additionally, prednisolone therapy was not associated with changes in plasma cytokine levels. CONCLUSION: The inability of prednisolone treatment to markedly attenuate the host immune response is instructive for planning future therapeutic strategies for dengue.